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Friday, November 6, 2015

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

"There are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

I saw a game awhile back and the announcer reported (made up names), Susie Jo had an excellent game with ten points. Really?

I want the players I coach to understand that your contribution is far more than the last column on the right of the scorebook.

Here's a more detailed look:

5 two point shots made  +10
10 two point misses  -20
2 free throws missed  -4
5 defensive rebounds  +5
Steals  0
1 block +2
1 assist  +2
8 turnovers  -16
1 screen leading to a basket +2
2 missed blockouts directly leading to hoops -4

Add the pluses and minuses and the total is minus 23.

I've tracked (intermittently) these types of statistics and shared (positive) some with players. First, players like to hear positives, but some players who don't show up so much scoring can still be positive by rebounding, screening, forcing held balls, getting steals,and so forth.

Generally, 0 to 10 is positive, 11-18 excellent, and above 18 outstanding. Below minus 10 shows problems (usually a lot of missed shots and turnovers). The highest score from a middle school team I've helped coach is plus 26.

Quantitative analysis of player performance isn't everything, but it provides a tool for improvement. If you're missing a lot of shots, is it shot selection (pressure/range) or a bad day. If you're turning the ball over a lot, is there a fixable problem (pivoting, passing into defenders, not protecting the ball)?

It gets back to what are you doing for the team and your teammates, and we can (and should) track that. When we do, remarkably enough we generally see 1) better shots and 2) fewer turnovers. Better possessions and more possession....better ingredients, better pizza...