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Monday, December 24, 2018

Basketball: Player Evaluation, The Matrix or The Red Pill?

“The way to a good reputation is to endeavor to be what you desire to appear.” - Socrates



Do you take the blue pill (the matrix) or seek underlying reality? "Remember, all I'm offering is the truth, nothing more." To what extent do we seek the truth?

We have biases viewing the world, ourselves, the game, and players. What if we create a basketball 'matrix'? Subconsciously we do precisely that. We offer value to both measurable and intangible qualities and recognize "dynamic scoring" of variables. 



We could assign a "success" value to each hexagon - youth, high school, college, and professional or simply "onion skin" subdivide at your level (reserve, starter, all-star, Hall of Fame).

For argument's sake, set a theoretical construct of a player, impossible to measure fully. Establish "above the line" qualities (size, athleticism, skill) and "intangibles" of toughness, resilience, and basketball IQ. Of course, many of the qualities are dynamic, while size is not. The "perfect player" extends to the edges in each dimension. 

I've created an "imaginary" player above with greater intangibles than measurables. We can assign a player (or scout) value to create an image and then "compare" the player to another. 

We assign values for each player, but it's limited. 
  • Where does Len Bias land, erased by bad decisions? 
  • How do we account for interobserver variation? One GM, coach, scout loves a player and another is lukewarm. Someone always has the final say. 
  • How do we measure character? 
  • What about outliers?  Players (e.g. Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier, Marcus Smart) seem greater than the sum of their parts. 
  • Are the warts worth it? Another player is spectacular but moody, often injured, or perceived selfish.
  • Do we need a special category for Dennis Rodman?
  • How do we account for potential
  • Does coachability deserve its own character?  

Bill Belichick and Mike Lombardi developed a twenty-four category spreadsheet that evaluates every player under consideration. I'd enjoy being a fly on that wall. 


Lagniappe: On the bookshelf, Leading Matters. Separate leaders from managers and pretenders

Humility
Authenticity
Service
Empathy
Courage
Teamwork
Innovation
Curiosity
Storytelling
Legacy

Strive to become better leaders every day and know that leaders make leaders. Our players deserve that.