Monday, June 27, 2016

Problem Solving


- Ayn Rand


How badly do we want success? Finding solutions lies at the core of most jobs. The types of problems vary as well as the pathways to solutions - education and training, connecting and communication, negotiation, and so forth.

Education implies knowledge acquisition and sharing to change behaviors. For example, to solve a littering problem in Texas, leaders rolled out a campaign "Don't Mess with Texas" to discourage littering as being unmanly. 

Training means discipline or project specific practice. Benjamin Franklin opted out of the "family business" (candle making) to join his brother's printing business because he wanted exposure to information. He would cut up essays and reformulate them to improve his writing. 

Personnel are often critical to mission success. In Jim Collins' Good to Great, he emphasizes the importance of having the right people on the bus and getting the wrong people off the bus. About 10,000 candidates begin the journey to become a Navy SEAL each year. Almost 20 percent fail the "Psych Test", and because 98 percent of those failing will not graduate, failing means elimination. Of the 1200 applicants who make the cut for training, only about 20 percent complete initial training, meaning only about 250 new SEALs emerge from 10,000 applicants. An additional two years of enhanced training are needed before operational deployment. 

Strategy is only one component for success. For example, within investing, win rate (percentage of winning trades) is less important than money management. Small losses and higher gains per winning trade are pivotal for long-term survival. 

Operations implies how we do business day-to-day. A small edge, ruthlessly applied, can lead to enormous success. That is the foundation of the gambling industry. By implementing the small advantage repeatedly, casinos make fortunes. Conversely, within some state lottery games, the 'edge' is beyond ginormous, as less than half of the dollars wagered are returned to 'winners'. 

We need to appreciate barriers, efficacy, susceptibility, and sustainability to positive results. Barriers can vary enormously, from cognitive biases (anchoring, framing, overconfidence, attribution - blaming outside factors) to compliance (e.g. patients taking their medication). We need to know the likely efficacy of our program or strategy, our susceptibility to problems (e.g. academic ineligibility, behavioral problems in our programs), and the sustainable competitive advantage. In First You Win the Locker Room, Mike Smith and Jon Gordon discuss the rise and fall of the Atlanta Falcons, because they failed to 'stick with the program'. 

Most people want to succeed. Sure, a few will rise because of 'dumb luck', the lottery winner approach. But most often success follows great process in analyzing problems to find durable solutions, with mastery the result of relentless preparation, practice, feedback, and refinement. That's why mastery is relatively scarce and highly valued. 

Bonus: Zipper Floppy