But how do we control uncertainty? Laurence Gonsales' Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why, raises many questions that apply to sport.
He references a classic military text, On War, by Carl von Clausewitz. Here's his excerpt:
"But we must remember that no part of it (the military machine) consists of a single piece, that everything is made up of a group of individuals, each of whom still has his own friction at every turn...The battalion is always made up of a number of men, the least significant of whom may very well bring things to a halt or cause things to go awry...Therefore this terrible friction is everywhere in contact with chance...with consequences that are impossible to calculate, for the very reason that they are largely elements of chance."
Let me share two examples. Several days before the 1973 Massachusetts Division 1 Eastern Massachusetts championship, our leading scorer, Bob "Ace" Moore, stepped on my foot and sprained his ankle in practice. I'm not saying that we lost (by three) because of that, but it didn't help. Many years later, a girl on a strong area team 'absconded' with another teammate's boyfriend just before the tournament. The team unexpectedly lost in an early round, ostensibly from internal dissent. Former major leaguer Joaquin Andujar said "they have a word for it in English - youneverknow."
Gonsales also discusses the National Outdoor Leadership School and its Accident Matrix. It outlines accidents as falling into one of three categories, Conditions, Judgments, and Acts.
In basketball, we might rename that Conditions, Decisions, and Execution. We tend to overemphasize late game actions (officiating, shot selection, makes and misses), but each contributes to the myriad possessions comprising a game. Just as in the wilderness, conditions vary (opponent, tempo and style of play, site, team state of conditioning, mood, fatigue, etc.). Many inputs lead to decisions as well. I overheard a parent tell their child (years ago before a sectional championship), "you're every bit as good as so-and-so, get your shots." Stress, fatigue, psychology, skill, and other factors also impact decisions. The best players usually shine brightest at the highest level, but the Harold Jensens and Makai Masons will always be the exceptions.
1. The players are young people. Consistency is often subservient to uncertainty. Be demanding without being demeaning.
2. What players understand is far from congruous with what we think.
3. Nobody is so outstanding that they can't improve. Model, learn, inspire. Become our 'better version'.
4. Be simple, direct, and clear. Ignorance will never prove virtuous.
5. The sun will come out tomorrow. "The journey is greater than the destination."
When in doubt, think.