Wikipedia shares,"the main idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build robustness to negative ones that occur and to be able to exploit positive ones."
We may remember the 1972 Miami Dolphins best for their perfect, undefeated season. But it was backup Earl Morrall who replaced an injured Bob Griese in Week 5 and directed the Dolphins to an unbeaten regular season. Robustness in reserve allowed the Fish to flourish despite significant injury.
"Havlicek stole the ball" would never have happened without Bill Russell's inbound pass hitting a guy wire supporting the basket (the Black Swan) in 1965.
Hank Gathers' sudden death was a black swan, as are other deaths or collapse from cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease, and dysrhythmia.
Bill Walton led UCLA to championships and earned two NBA titles with Portland and Boston. But Walton's Bruin backup, Sven Nater was there to develop Walton and prevent a Black Swan event. Nater went on to lead the ABA and the NBA in rebounding, the only player to do so.
Blueprint Basketball suggests ideas to create Black Swans.
1.Full court press and trapping
2.Half court trapping
3.Switching screens (this has become commonplace)
4.Changing defenses
In preparation for post-season play, I'm concerned about neutralizing youth basketball Black Swans, especially pick-and-roll and backcut offenses and multiple zone defenses.
We haven't spent much time on zone offense this season...
Lagniappe: Targeting free throws (Xavier newsletter)
As I recall, in John McPhee's profile on Bill Bradley, A Sense of Where You Are, he described aiming for the center of the four bolts that held the rim on the backboard. That corresponds to the black script on the 'plate' just below the back rim now. On our hoops, that reads "DRAPER." That's the target I recommend for our young players.