Friday, November 23, 2018

Basketball: Underachieving and the Boston Celtics

We hear or say players or teams underachieve or overachieve. Both are relative terms, based on prior experience and current expectations. 

For example, the Eastern Conference finalist Celtics with three former All-Stars (Irving, Horford, Hayward) and two promising youngsters (Tatum, Brown) came in touted as conference favorites. Despite Brad Stevens, it hasn't started that way, with a 9-9 record out of the box. 

Pundits say it's effort, chemistry, roles, and other intangibles. Coach Stevens has shared both sanguine and realistic thoughts. Is it really a mystery? 

Here are a few statistics:

-The Celtics are 3rd in 3-point shots attempted (35.9/gm)
-They are 20th in 3-point percentage (34.3%)
-They are 28th in free throws attempted (20.1/gm)
-They are 29th in field goal percentage (43.4%)
-They are 24th in effective field goal percentage (50.2%)
-They are 12th in assists/game (24.2) versus 21st last season
-They are 27th in offensive rating (104.3)
-Surprisingly, they are second in team defense rating (102.8)
-This includes being 5th best in allowing fewest points in the paint
-They also lead the NBA in defensive percentage against threes (32.2%)

The NBA is a make-or-miss league. Thus far, they are among the teams taking the most threes, and yet not efficient (low percentage). They are among the worst shooting teams in the league and among the poorest in going to the line. Combine poor shooting and a relative paucity of free throws and they earn a low offensive rating. 

When we attended a Celtics practice last year, Coach Stevens had a brief conversation with my wife (a rocket scientist). He said, "it's not rocket science." Indeed, until the Celtics start making shots, they'll continue to struggle. 


Only Marcus Morris, Tatum, and Irving are solid from three so far...and Al Horford, Marcus Smart (usual), Hayward, and Brown have been simply terrible from three. 

"It's not rocket science." 

Lagniappe:
It's easy to envision a series of options off this BOB, especially STS (screen-the-screener) actions. 



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