The Charioteer, bronze, circa 500 B.C. Sculptor unknown.
"Luck is the residue of design."
The decisions we make today, the seeds we plant, become the fruit (or lack) years from now. What is our design?
Our style of play has to fit our personality. Saying the style of play is "wrong" doesn't always account for the coaching experience and especially the players. Sports is a bottom-line world; Bill Parcells says, "you are your record." It's not so simple...especially in a developmental setting.
We choose to match our style of play to our people or we have a system and find players who fit that system.
Postulate 1. Skill and luck both contribute to results. (see Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets)
Postulate 2. Skill includes talent and coaching. Neither alone produces high performance.
Postulate 3. Talent has a higher order than coaching.
In my opinion, talent probably accounts for about 2/3rds of results (65%). Coaching accounts for about a third (30%), and luck about 5 percent. This varies by level with talent even more vital at the elite levels of college and professional play. In Saban, Monte Burke writes that Coach Nick Saban's wife Terry says that Saban isn't the greatest coach...but he is a magnificent recruiter.
Personnel (the talent). What is the size, athleticism, and skill best suited to do? If we have more size than athleticism, we logically are suited to try to dominate "the ends" of the court. If we have more athleticism and skill, we are better suited to dominate the middle. If we don't have size, athleticism, or skill, we'll probably be looking at our next job.
Military strategy. Historically, campaigns are fought by the infantry (inside game), the cavalry (speed game), and the artillery (long-range attack). Analyze how best to structure your attack.
The coach. Coaches are responsible for organizing, recruiting (when possible) and retaining, selecting, developing, and deploying forces. Gregg Popovich reminds us, "technique beats tactics." It's obvious that superior forces generally dominate superior coaching. Understanding the exceptions, e.g. Chancellorsville, April 30 to May 6, 1863, matters. Outnumbered and with inferior logistics, Generally Lee outflanked General Joseph Hooker to spearhead an underdog victory. More often, as at Thermopylae, overwhelming force crushes spirited inferiors even with great leadership (Leonidas).
Does our system develop role players and constantly refresh talent infusion? Do we retain players from middle school to high school and within high school? Do we create an integrated program from lower to higher levels? If we're struggling, why? If we're doing well, how can we do better?
"Control what we control." Players and families judge where to play and their investment in their athletic and skill development. Coaches control the offseason program offerings, the technical and tactical inputs. At lower levels, we don't control attendance or the purpose players put forth, just our cognitive, financial, and time investment.
The decisions made before the offseason program starts are reflected in the quality of play during the season. "Repetitions make reputations."
Lagniappe:
Did we help players acquire the tools to flourish?Meet success with skepticism. Maybe you won despite your methods and not because of them. #RAMP— Radius Athletics (@RadiusAthletics) April 10, 2019