Monday, May 20, 2019

Basketball: What Does UNDERRATED Mean?

"She's underrated." Explain that. Humans label. We see uniquely - size, athleticism, skill, knowledge, communication, emotion, and especially our interactions. 

 One person's underrated is another's overrated. Circumstances and tribe (e.g. politics, wealth, religion or lack thereof) influence us. And we're limited by our "implicit bias." 

We could guess this person has issues (note the background) but we don't a priori know without details. 

He looks like a nice enough guy. Right? If he's underrated, it's only because we don't know with certainty how many deaths he's responsible for (Ted Bundy, over 30). 

What properties cause us to mischaracterize basketball players or coaches? 

Here are the top 25 scorers in NBA history. 


We're biased...such as recency bias (latest performances), confirmation bias (we read what we believe), social proof ("everybody knows that") and more. Who are the most underrated and overrated players on the list? As a group we'd differ, but probably with clusters around a few names. Are we valuing the 'total recall' of the player or just their scoring? 

We'd need a hierarchy of values. I haven't met so many NBA players. I'd say the nicest ones I've met are Henry Finkel and Doug Collins. But my sample size and degree of contact are very small. Confidence level in my beliefs should be small. If someone is our friend or played on our local team, we have endowment bias. Whether someone treated us well shouldn't factor into ratings. Ted Williams allegedly didn't win an MVP because a writer left him off his ballot. 

To be "underrated" implies a certain EXPECTATION and performance exceeding expectations. Overrated reflects performance (probably recently) failing expectations. 

We benefit from domain-specific experience and expertise. Lacking either, we struggle to build "valid baselines." Asking me about NASCAR drivers is worthless. 

Accurate ratings need appropriate comparisons. When I was inducted into the inaugural class of my high school Alumni Hall of Fame, I commented that I benefited from lack of comparison. What I accomplished paled in comparison with subsequent classes, including my sister's. That is not false modesty. She was a Fortune 500 CEO. Another subsequent class member was US Senator Scott Brown. 

In The Smart Take from the Strong, Pete Carril asks, "who's your favorite general?" Do we know enough about generals to have an opinion? 


General McArthur's speech at West Point is unforgettable and colors my judgment. Grant's Civil War achievements surpassed those during much of his life. General William Tecumseh Sherman eschewed great battles to win great gains. And my favorite, General Alexander Suvorov, overcame a sickly childhood to become the General Who Never Lost. "What is difficult in training will become easy in a battle."

 We need clear definitions. If a player or coach comes with minimal expectations, then they can be underrated simply by jumping a low bar. Some coaches set low expectations with the intent of surpassing them. Simply beating the bare minimum doesn't constitute underrated for me. 

 Do we need consensus? If a 'majority' of observers find a player or coach underrated is that enough? 

 Great players can be underrated to us. I thought Nate Archibald was underrated. That doesn't make me right. 

 More ordinary players can be underrated for a time. Performance varies. Mark Belanger was an elite shortstop with a .228 career average, but somehow hit .287 in 1969. 

Underrated is an opinion not a condition. Underrating or overrating, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. 

 Lagniappe: Brief 2-3 zone offense course from Radius Athletics 
Lagniappe 2: How much mustard is enough? 

Screen capture from MasterClass on Aaron Franklin Teaches Texas BBQ

 Grillmaster Aaron Franklin uses a light 'slather' of mustard on his pork ribs...enough to make them 'tacky'. He then applies a simple rub of two parts pepper, one part Kosher salt, and a little paprika for color. 

 Coaching young players, I emphasize the meat not the mustard. A bunch of "And 1" dribbling that doesn't attack the basket or get separation is just 'extra mustard' to me. 

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