Friday, July 26, 2019

Basketball: Why Do Giants Lose?


"Basketball is a game of mistakes." - Bobby Knight

 We lose basketball games by making mistakes; win by forcing and avoiding mistakes. We allow a score off the opening tap, travel 30 feet from the basket, or fumble a pass out of bounds at the wing - malignant acts of self-destruction. 

 Against a superior chess player, our only chance is their grievous error. And best of however many games, that simply won't happen. 

Because results blend skill and luck, we have to neutralize the advantage of superior talent to defeat giants. Underrepresented skill means reducing mistakes. 

 David and Goliath is the paradigm for why giants lose. They lose because of intrinsic flaws (Malcolm Gladwell argues that the giant has acromegaly, "the Giant is blind."). They lose because of overconfidence (Aesop's Tortoise and the Hare). They leverage the unexpected (Villanova's sharpshooting over 1985 Georgetown)...or an opportunistic score.  


Author Neil Gaiman explains the importance of dragons not in their existence, but in our ability to defeat them. We love the underdog story, Rocky, The Karate Kid, Leicester City (2016), Super Bowl XXXVI.

As Rick Moranis reminded his team in Little Giants, "One time." 

Cobble together our advantages to find the one time. But the "one time" momentous upsets come with caveats. 

 Free throws matter. 
Villanova shot an astounding 78.6 percent in their championship win over Georgetown and shot nineteen more free throws in a two point win. They lost the turnover battle 17-11, including six by five-for-five Harold Jensen. We can't get to the free throw line or put opponents in foul trouble with an overabundance of perimeter play. 

 Even in the modern NBA, Toronto outscored Golden State at the free throw line in five of the six Finals games during their 2019 title run. 


Perimeter scoring still helps. That doesn't mean three-point shooting doesn't matter as the winner in each of the Finals games scored more threes than their opponent. 

 John Wooden's admonition that "little things make big things happens" is critical during the postseason, as good teams allow fewer transition points, fewer unchallenged shots, and make offenses work harder for everything in the halfcourt. 

 Lagniappe: What makes champions? Inspiration...and perspiration. 
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