Everything changes. We choose whether we change with the world. Realize and refine new paradigms.
Where do points come from? UCONN women's team looks to score a third in transition, a third from sets, and a third from three-point shots. Three-point shooting and its complement (effective field goal percentage) often define destiny.
The game becomes layups, threes, and free throws.
Here's a recent shot chart of the Bucks from February 8th. Over 40 percent of their shots are threes which boosted their EFG% (Image from basketball-reference.com) Also, see how assist volume tracked with EFG% explosion.
Updated analysis (I don't understand the math) argues that EFG%, Turnovers, Offensive rebounding, and Free throws matter, but in different percentages.
"The coefficients returned for each variable, interpreted as the weights assigned, provide some interesting conclusions. The most important is that they confirm Oliver’s hierarchy. However, they do not fit to the 40/25/20/15 theory. In fact, they seem to be closer to something like 43/39/10/8 as underlined by the t Stat value of each variable. Thus being said, importance of turnover rate has increased by 56% while offensive rebound rate and free throw rate have decreased by 100% approximately. It is also interesting that offence has a greater impact then defense."
Princeton and Iowa are both top 15 women's college teams - and met earlier this season. About 30 percent of Princeton's shots were 3s and almost 45 percent of Iowa's... https://
I'm not saying the midrange game is extinct, just to be viewed in context of what IS.
When players I'm coaching now go to college, I'm guessing that 40 percent of shots (maybe more) will be threes. If they want to play, they must expand their range.
Yet at the NBA level, the highest percentage shot (points-per-possession) is scoring off the pass and cut. Only two teams (ATL, PHI) score as much as 1.00 points/possession off postups. Only one team (HOU - Harden, 1.04) scores over 1.00 points/possession on isolations. As time passes and defenses find better ways to defend threes, that may open up even more pass and cut basketball "outside in" play.
Lagniappe: Defending the pick-and-roll is always a challenge, moreso with variations
When players I'm coaching now go to college, I'm guessing that 40 percent of shots (maybe more) will be threes. If they want to play, they must expand their range.
Yet at the NBA level, the highest percentage shot (points-per-possession) is scoring off the pass and cut. Only two teams (ATL, PHI) score as much as 1.00 points/possession off postups. Only one team (HOU - Harden, 1.04) scores over 1.00 points/possession on isolations. As time passes and defenses find better ways to defend threes, that may open up even more pass and cut basketball "outside in" play.
Lagniappe: Defending the pick-and-roll is always a challenge, moreso with variations
Rubio, Booker, and Ayton involved in any pick-and-roll action is the Suns' halfcourt offense at its best. Whether it's the Spain PnR play from last night or any of these other plays.— Wam Wooper (@scooperhoops) February 23, 2020
1 elite playmaker. 2 elite finishers. 1 elite shooter.
How do you even try to guard it? pic.twitter.com/j3zsYSa5qL