During the 1930s, France constructed the "Maginot Line," a series of obstacles and fortifications designed to deter German invasion. But during WWII, Germany skirted it with technology, Panzer divisions and Luftwaffe attacks, rendering it obsolete, leading to occupation of France within two months.
Is our program adapting to change? .
- Analytics drive an emphasis on threes, layups, and free throws.
- Many defenses switch seamlessly to combat tactical change.
- Is our team adapting to offensive and defensive evolution?
Offensive assumptions: Get better shots.
We can assign an 'expected point value' to every shot. For example, our best middle school (girls) player shot about 30% on threes. An open three would therefore have an expected value of 0.9 points. If a player shot 60% on free throws, the expected value of two free throws is 1.2 points. Expected values on layups depends on the player, the degree of difficulty, and "contestedness." Are we doing enough finishing drills to increase our layup expected point value?- Every possession generates an "expected point value." (EV)
- It's never going to be 3.0 (nobody makes 100 percent of threes in competition routinely) and turnovers won't be -3.0 for the same reason.
- A "generic" shot depends on the shooter, shot type, range, openness (contestedness), and balance. A "good player" taking a highly contested, off-balance shot will have a low expected value. It may be ZERO (shot turnover).
- Player development offers better quality and better average expected value.
The idea isn't making players robotic or constraining freedom but to help them understand "shot quality" objectively. Get 7s is simple, powerful advice.
Defensive assumptions: (assumptions are NOT always right)
- Man-to-man is our primary defense for developmental purposes.
- We prefer tight man to sagging man/pack line.
- Switching well allows fewer uncontested layups and open threes.
- We have enough size, athleticism, and communication to switch aggressively.
- Drive hard closeouts (if our attack EV is greater than our perimeter EV)
- Set up mismatches off cross-screens and back screens
- Use the short roll against aggressive PnR coverage
- Rescreen and snake dribble actions against PnR drop coverage
Lagniappe: Educational plays from the Mavs - Clippers
The Mavs set a high wing ball screen and the Clippers are aggressive on the ball. Predict the outcome and watch the next clip. I "read" it right.
The screener defender is high and pays the price.
Doncic is dangerous penetrating, perimeter shooting, and passing with paint touches and ball reversal (above).
Doncic on the pick-and-roll with exceptional patience waiting for Boban to uncover.
Lou Williams knows patience, too, with a hesitation into an explosive finish.
Kawhi penetrates and capitalizes when the Mavs help off the corner 3.
Lagniappe 2: From Brian Robb, "Boston Sports Journal"
"Warriors general manager Bob Myers summed up everything you need to know about the NBA postseason back at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2019. “The playoffs are nothing like the regular season,” Myers explained. “They are two completely different sports…In the playoffs, (a player’s) first move is gone…whatever they know he does well, it’s gone."