Basketball: Notes from Coach Triano's Analytics Clinic, Cooking Up a Plan

"There are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics." - popularized by Mark Twain, origin uncertain

Statistics usually reflect action. In Moneyball, Michael Lewis wrote that Billy Beane asked, "if he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit better?" 

A firehose of statistics overwhelms us. Too selective misses the big picture.  

Stats are like highlight video. Small sample size distorts their value. And we should evaluate statistics in context of the era. Baseball's 'dead ball' era produced few homers and lower ERAs. 

Use analytics to "do more of what works and less of what doesn't." 

Coach Jay Triano expounds on using analytics. 

"Keep sharing." 

"Use this time to grow as a coach...what are we going to do that's different?" 

"The game has changed...the Bulls of Jordan would have ranked 25th today in points/possession."

Timberwolves' practice floor includes points/possession... "get fouled and get to the free throw line" and "get to the rim" and then "shoot from the corners." (Caveat, data will be specific to our players and age group). 

In 2004-2005 seven seconds or less high pace of play began. PPP in transition is 1.23, much higher than in half-court. 

Getting the ball over half court quickly presents an edge. 

Paint touches promote productivity. "See if we can get fouled; see if we can get to the rim."

Ball reversal data is less compelling, but only because if it didn't happen, you likely had an edge on the ball side. 

Ball movement creates shots AWAY from the handler. Spacing = success. 

Cutting creates chances. But the low frequency needs work. 

All threes are NOT alike. 

In 2014-15, if you shot 33% and took ALL threes, that would put you in the top five offenses. Things have changed. 33% threes is bottom ten offense. 

Why the midrange is becoming extinct. 

It's complicated. Good teams let poorer shooters take more 3s.

Analytics say send three to the glass. 

Get the first big to the rim and flatten the defense with filled corners. 

Attack the defense before they're established and force long closeouts. NBA spacing will usually have both high slots and corners occupied. Players know where teammates will be. 

Getting to the free throw line facilitates a lot of options on the defensive end.

Emphasis to "cut urgently." It is tough for defense to defend the cut off the pass, OR a DHO, or an off-ball screen. It gets the big away from the hoop. It sets up chances for them to make mistakes. He calls this ZOOM ACTION. It would be easy to drill this 2 v 2 with high post entry and passer option for cut or DHO or add a third player (above). 

Lagniappe: Don Meyer's translation of basketball to business reminds me of the wisdom of Michelin 3-Star Chef Thomas Keller. I applied his precision cooking and refinement recently to make Chicken Tikka Masala.