Sunday, December 27, 2020

Basketball: All Three Point Shots Are Not Created Equal



Don't cite the Declaration of Independence about your shot selection. Three-point shots are great (or terrible) shots depending on situation and skill. 

All shooters are not created equal. 


2019-2020, NBA three-point percentage leaders off the catch, minimum 150 attempts (from NBA.com)

All shot situations are not the same. NBA fans will debate the merit of LeBron James' decision to pass to Danny Green for a potential game-winning three. 




I thought it was a good decision considering LeBron's angle of attack, the degree of "contestedness," and Green's proficiency. Here's Danny Green's 2019-2020 shot chart. FWIW, Green's three-point percentage from the top of the arc was 21.4% on a small sample size.  

And all three point shots are not alike. Some examples include:
1) Catch-and-shoot threes
2) Off the dribble threes (lower percentage than off the catch)
3) Pump fake threes (my gestalt is that it's much lower, but replaced by SDT)
4) Side-dribble/one dribble threes (SDT)
5) Coming off downscreen catch-and-pivot threes
6) Below and above the break threes 

The one-dribble three is becoming a weapon. 


The "side-dribble three" has become a force unto itself.


Of course, Steph Curry doesn't play for us. 

The corner three is fundamentally different than the above-the-break three with a higher point per possession rating. "Teams have realized that they can improve their offense by simply changing their shot selection. Take more threes and score more points...In addition, spacing the floor with 3-point threats provides space for players to drive, cut, roll, and post-up."

Above everything, all three point shots are not created equal. 

Lagniappe: Empty the lane for a back cut using screens

Lagniappe 2: Chris Webber on rookies, "You have to show your value by doing the little things." 

Lagniappe 3: The end of the Celtics game. 



 

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