Thursday, March 25, 2021

Basketball: Applying Process Improvement to Basketball (and a COVID-19 Bonus)

Great process wins. Work smarter not harder. If Six Sigma revolutionized sports, you'd think the secret would get out. Just as if one offense produced an edge, everyone would adopt it and the edge would disappear. The Triangle Offense went the way of the Model T.  

What is Six Sigma? Villanova published an overview using the acronym DMAIC. 


In math, sigma represents one standard deviation of a "normal" distribution. 

If we could improve to "two standard deviations" from the "norm" we would be in the top 2.5% of a category, such as turnovers. If we could get to six standard deviations it would approach (not quite reach) the equivalent of hitting .400 in baseball (.260 mean plus 1 standard deviation of .020). 

Maybe the closest example of process brilliance would be Dave Brailsford and marginal gains as told by James Clear leading Britain to multiple gold medals and Tour de France titles. 

Let's look at an NBA paradigm first. The Celtics encouraged "swing" Jaylen Brown to take more threes and fewer mid-range shots. 

DEFINE. The goal is to score the highest points per possession.

MEASURE. Brown is shooting 51% on midrange shots, 1.02 points per shot. He shoots 38.8% on threes, 1.16 points per shot. 

ANALYZE. Will a shift in Brown's shot selection result in net offensive gains? What other adjustments (e.g. more cuts leading to layups) lead to higher net offensive rating? 

IMPROVE. Raising points/possession depends on multiple factors including types of offensive play and players. It's not as easy as "more threes."


The NBA has detailed data available. LeBron (in orange) scores high points/possession on cuts, rolls, putbacks and transition. Durant (blue) scores highest on putbacks, cuts, transition, and spot ups. Remind players to "do more of what works and less of what doesn't."

CONTROL. Followup the change, documenting the improvement and consistency of gains. 

We could use the same types of analysis on transition (offense and defense), play type (e.g. pick-and-roll), turnovers (committed and forced), percentage of assisted baskets, and so on. We might ask players for their input seeking buy-in. Lacking "stat power," focus on the Four Factors (EFG%, rebounds, turnovers, free throws). Years ago, as an assistant, I tracked and reported team shooting percentage and turnovers. We improved on both as players saw we expected better performance. 

Lagniappe. Deception matters. Paige Bueckers looks off defenders and picks up assists.



And again. She knows where the ball is going on the cut. 

Super Triple Bonus. Coronavirus today...the truth is out there. 


“Coronavirus Today”

  1. Coronavirus cases are rising in Massachusetts. https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting

  2. Coronavirus variants are rising in the US. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/health/coronavirus-variant-us-spread.html

  3. College athletes are not immune. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/sports/coronavirus-college-sports-football.html

  4. Last week the US administered about 2.5 million vaccine doses per day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/

  5. Vaccines have been around since 1796. This article traces some of the history from smallpox, to rabies, yellow fever, polio, and more. Vaccines have prevented hundreds of millions of deaths from viral and other diseases. Yet, vaccine hesitancy is still an issue. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2034334?query=featured_home

  6. Getting more from N95s? “Ultraviolet germicidal irradiation, moist heat, and microwave-generated steam processing of filtering facepiece respirators are effective means for decontamination and are simple to implement.” https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777342

  7. “Of the 36,659 vaccinated HCWs, 379 (1.0%) tested positive for COVID-19 1 or more days after vaccination, 71% of them within the first 2 weeks after the first dose. Of the 28,184 HCWs who received their second dose, 37 (0.1%) tested positive, 22 of them 1 to 7 days later. Eight tested positive 8 to 14 days later, and 7 did so at least 15 days later.” Vaccines work in HCWs! https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/risk-covid-very-low-vaccinated-medical-workers-study

  8. COVID vaccines prevent deaths. It doesn’t get clearer. "The odds of dying after getting a Covid-19 vaccine are virtually non-existent. According to recent data from the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention, you're three times more likely to get struck by lightning...The findings also illustrate a broader trend in online misinformation: with social media platforms making more of an effort to take down patently false health claims, bad actors are turning to cherry-picked truths to drive misleading narratives.” https://www.npr.org/2021/03/25/980035707/lying-through-truth-misleading-facts-fuel-vaccine-misinformation


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