Basketball: Avoiding Bad Decisions (Harder Than We Think)

“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” - Charlie Munger

Most people know Charlie Munger as Warren Buffett's partner. That understates his importance as a thinker over decades.

Restate his wisdom as "avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance." That applies to coaching and playing basketball. 

1. Gather the facts. 

Sometimes we choose poorly from a lack of information. Nobody knew that the assistant coach had a "character issue" at a prior school. A simple search detected the problem. "The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior." That doesn't mean second chances can't happen. But it doesn't oblige us to give eighth chances. 

2. Don't be hasty unless you have to. 

Lincoln wrote "hot letters" expressing anger or frustration. But he waited and held them, "Never sent. Never signed." Give emotions time to cool. Conversely, after Rosanne Barr's racist tweet, Disney CEO Bob Iger immediately sacked her. Learn to be patient and decisive. Don't cancel yourself. 

3. "Measure a thousand times but cut only once." - Turkish Proverb

Is there a fit for us in an organization or culture? Why are we making this decision? Are we choosing money, status, or ego without thinking through the options? Find fit. 

4. Consensus doesn't guarantee correctness. 

GM CEO Alfred Sloan remarked, “If we are all in agreement on the decision — then I propose we postpone further discussion of this matter until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about.” Yes Men can go nowhere. 

5. Stop making the same mistakes. 

Einstein said, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." I've picked 13 players a few times and usually end up regretting it because of the playing time problems created. 

Chart from The Power of Moments by Chip and Dan Heath

I know that practice provides much of the teaching, repetition, and opportunity for correction. But many players and families see playing time as the Holy Grail the chance for peaks. 

6. We don't define the problem. 

"What does our team need now?" We couldn't contain the ball or extend the defense without exposing our limitations, the military limfac (limiting factors). The coach's job is to maximize the process to get the best with what we have. Coach Wooden said, "Don't let what you can't do interfere with what you can." Our defense improved when we stopped pressing and played a hybrid defense to hide our weaknesses. "Where do our points arise?" And "where are we allowing points?"

7. We focus on optics (see link above). 

We defend our egos associated with our decisions. Sometimes there's a "sunk cost" (high draft choice, high salary, or commitment and consistency bias). 

8. We make "Night at the Opera" decisions.

Night at the Opera decisions mean "mi - mi - mi." This makes bad shots, not enough passing, not enough "Team First" thinking. 

9. "Don't beat ourselves." 

Losing is frustrating and twice a painful as winning feels good. But giving away games with bad decisions (often turnovers, poor transition defense, bad shot selection) gnaws at each of us. "We make our choices and our choices make us." 

10. Read...a lot. 

Munger adds, “We read a lot. I don’t know anyone who’s wise who doesn’t read a lot. But that’s not enough: You have to have a temperament to grab ideas and do sensible things. Most people don’t grab the right ideas or don’t know what to do with them.”

We can't think out of the box if we have a small 'circle of competence.' The more we understand ourselves, others, coaching, leadership, other disciplines, and the game, the better our chance to make good decisions. 

Lagniappe. Watch video daily. Adam Spinella shows a multitude of multiple actions ATOs. Find a couple of actions that work for you.