Excellent coaches simplify. Don Meyer shared the evolution of coaching from blind enthusiasm, to sophisticated complexity, to mature simplicity. Sales people found that customers buy more when they have fewer choices. "All stocks are bad; only the good ones go up."
For a decade, the final exam at a Japanese military academy included the question, "how would you attack Pearl Harbor?" When you have the questions, you need an answer.
Nobel Laureate economist Krugman says, "Look for natural experiments." We play a rival seven times and lose all seven, most by narrow margins. A spoonful of sugar? Each time we played 'man' defense and get burned by:
- Give-and-go actions run through the high post (poor technique)
- Back door cuts (poor technique)
- Mismatches when our primary rim protector subbed out (coaching)
- Three-point shots (see diagram below)
Krugman also says, "It's never been easier to be self-motivated on a lot of subjects." Nobody ever won because of more lectures and less practice. Leverage what you do well and disguise weaknesses. Coaches bench pro players because others exploit specific weaknesses.
"The best offense" is what's best for our players. If there were a "best offense," wouldn't everyone install it? Skill development is primary. Volume shooting is not a democracy. Remind players of Bob Knight's advice, "just because I want you on the floor, doesn't mean I want you to shoot."
"See past our own bias." Whenever there are many treatments (approaches), it's because there is no best solution. It's like asking "what's the best way to lose weight?"
Krugman adds, "If everything you see...confirms your initial view, you're doing it wrong." Beware 'confirmation bias'. We can win while underachieving and lose while playing well.
Analytics add clarity. We need players and actions that end possessions well. Positive analytics gain possession by rebounding or forcing turnovers. Field goals and free throws are the ultimate possession enders. "She's our leading scorer" doesn't add enough clarity. Count effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and defense.
Yesterday, the Celtics yielded 79 first half points to the Heat. The "truth machine" explains why.
The Heat went 16-35 on threes with limited defensive resistance on shooters like Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro, combining for 8-13 on treys.
Summary:
- Bring it back to plain English.
- Find mature simplicity.
- Volume shooting is not a democracy.
- See past our bias and confirmation bias.
- Analytics add clarity to ending possessions.
- Use the "truth machine."
Lagniappe. Use multiple baskets to work on free throws and one-on-one.