What Is "Good Basketball" ? A Look Inside the Concepts and Numbers

"Entertain me with good basketball." What's good offensive basketball? 

High offensive efficiency informs good offense. Possessions equals field goals attempted - offensive rebounds + turnovers + (0.4 x free throws attempted). Points per possessions equals total points/total possessions. 

In Dean Smith's 1999 book, Basketball: Multiple Offense and Defense, he considered good college offense as above 0.85 points per possession, although he didn't use the same calculus. 

UNC

______ shots for                              _______ points

______ times to foul line for             _______ points

______ loss of ball                           _______ points (zero)

______ total possessions for           _______ points

total points / total possessions = average points per possessions (Smith's formula yielded lower numbers)

Smith's formula (2021 Baylor Championship game) = 

67 shots for 70 points

18 free throws for 16 points

09 turnovers 

94 possessions for 86 points (86/94 = 0.91 points/possession)

Contemporary formula (can vary)

86 points

+67 FGs attempted

-16 Offensive rebounds 

+09 turnovers

+07 (0.4 x 18 FTs)

________________

67 possessions for 86 points = 1.28 points/possession

Baylor shot and rebounded well and took care of the ball to generate high points per possession.  

2021 National champion Baylor and runner-up Gonzaga led in offensive efficiency. 

What favors higher points per possession? Let's return to the formula: 

Possessions equals field goals attempted - offensive rebounds + turnovers + (0.4 x free throws attempted). 

• Get more field goals attempted by reducing turnovers
• Take better shots (increases shooting percentage)
• Shoot better (improve skill, increase percentage of shots by better shooters)
• Pass better - "quality of the shot relates to the quality of the pass." 
• Get types of shots favoring higher points per possessions (e.g. cutting versus isolation)

"There is a clear relationship between assists per 100 possessions, and field goal accuracy overall. Generally, higher assist/100 means that the team shoots a higher field goal percentage."

Scoring off cutting is among the most efficient but least utilized. In 2020, "The Miami Heat led the league in frequency of cuts at 9.4 percent during the regular season and scored 1.31 points per possession on them...During the regular season, the league average PPP was 1.28 off cuts compared to the 1.11 in transition, 1.01 off spot-ups and 0.91 in isolation."

Two quotes from the HBO documentary, "Belichick & Saban: The Art of Coaching" resonate. 

"It's not just about what you want, but what you're willing to do to get it." - Nick Saban

"The reason we lost the game was... "we can't tackle." - Bill Belichick (Be good at what it's vital to be good at.) 

Offensive efficiency isn't random but developed. Mastery of the necessary separates elite teams, players, and coaches from others. 

Lagniappe. We talk about elite players as "possession enders" which can mean either scoring, rebounding, or defense getting steals or forcing turnovers. I look forward to this series of posts. 

NBA spacing.