Thursday, August 26, 2021

Basketball: When It's Not Working, Change It Up (Analogy Session - stock charts, fractals, football and baseball)

"No progress occurs without change, but all change is not progress." - John Wooden

Every team has ups and downs. Navigating the downs defines the victors. 

All coaches have a plan. What happens when it fails?

Kevin Eastman says,

  • Do it better.
  • Do it harder.
  • Change personnel. 
  • "$#%&, it ain't working." - We have to change. 
There's no textbook definition of failing. Usually, the game coach "feels" a sudden momentum shift or a game slipping away. 

Momentum shift:

Stock price charts provide a useful analogy. A tight "game" exists between bulls and bears between 60 and 62 dollars per share (in the box) from September to mid-October. Price can break out from a "base" and run (trend) or have a "false breakout" (left box) where price broke below 60 and reversed. Imagine that the "bear team" scored consecutive threes or transition baskets and the bulls' coach called a timeout to stop the run. During the initial breakdown, some "short sellers" will sell the stock anticipating a price drop. 

This actually happens as the "sell side" intervenes with supportive announcements of their confidence in the stock. Or a company announces something favorable. When price reverses, new buyers jump in AND short sellers must "cover" (buy the stock back, taking a loss) accelerating the price rise. 

Self-awareness is critical. Overconfidence in our team, our plan, or ourselves can cause delay or inaction when a timeout or strategic change (tactics, tempo, personnel) are needed. 

What triggers change? 
  • Losing seasons
  • Losing streaks
  • Score reversals (think Atlanta-Patriots 28-3)
  • Poor effort (a combination of coaching and people)
  • Change in management

Readily seen changes on large time frames (above) repeat on small time frames. And it's essential to reverse these in the short-term to avoid them on longer time-frames. Bad seasons come from the sum of poor possessions. 

A granular approach, teaching to the possession (what we did well, what we didn't) offers the best chance of favorable long-term results. That's hard when the development structure is often based on volume of games played. 

Lagniappe: Quicker release. Ball in the air, feet in the air. 


Lagniappe 2. Defensive recovery. I think we have overemphasized sliding and undertaught "hip turn" and sprint recovery. The video mentions soccer defense. Think NFL cornerback play or stealing second base. Hip turn and crossover steps come into play.