Dean Oliver authored the landmark Basketball on Paper, promoting the "Four Factors" that statistically correlate with winning. Those emphasize field goal percentage, turnover margin, offensive rebounding, and free throws. It's still great.
Reductionism (for youth basketball) distills to "three musts."
- Shot selection
- Turnovers
- Easy baskets allowed
To protect the guilty, I won't show clips...mostly.
You aren't Caitlin Clark. When I watch high school players take step back threes that fall two feet short, I think, "what was that?" The great Dizzy Dean said, "if you can do it, you ain't boasting." If you make 'em, take 'em. But when you don't, keep that club in the bag.
Better shot selection is the quickest path to improvement.
- ROB shots... in range, open, on balance. Prove your range (range testing) in practice.
- What's your three-point percentage? If it's 10-15 percent, you have no business taking that shot. "Bad shooters are aways open." And if you say, "I'm a good shooter" then how do you explain your stats?
- "The quality of the shot relates to the quality of the pass." - Pete Carril
- "Winners win in space." Why are you driving into a crowd? Asking for a friend.
- Get 7s (Tips from T.J. Rosene)
Opportunity: Track team shot charts. Every team member should know what a good shot is for them and each other.
Fewer turnovers mean more shots. A bad shot is better than a good turnover.
- Winning the turnover battle matters. "The NBA team with fewer turnovers wins about 58 percent of the time. If field goal percentages are about equal, the team with fewer turnovers wins 69 percent of the time."
- Zak Boisvert on turnovers.
- Separate decision turnovers and execution turnovers and fix both.
And remember what Doc Rivers calls "shot turnovers."
Opportunity: Track both number and type of turnovers to reduce both. Some players may need the permanent pivot foot. Show clips of "playing in traffic." It seldom works.
No easy baskets. I used to think of three categories but I've expanded it.
- Failed transition defense
- Fouling bad shots or bad shooters
- Failed blockouts into putbacks
- Uncontested threes on shooters
- Lack of help and recover defense (half-court)
Return to the premise that a third of games are decided by two possessions (six points) or fewer. Attend to the details - better shots, fewer turnovers, no easy baskets.
Opportunity: set standards for points allowed in transition (e.g. no more than three transition baskets per game. Track 3-7-2 three consecutive stops, seven times per half, two halves. If you get seven per half, success will follow.
Lagniappe. Multiple action concepts still require execution.