Learn from Failure, Plus Side-Step Threes

Become a student of failure. Put failure in perspective. In 1986, Angels reliever Donnie Moore surrendered a critical homer to Dave Henderson in the AL Championship series, which some attributed as the cause of Moore's suicide several years later. It's not that simple. 

Redemption is impossible without failure. Learn from and leverage failure. 

Screen capture from Terence Tao (MasterClass, Mathematics)

Detailed failure analysis allows corrections. One of the most celebrated failures was the Space Shuttle Challenger and the "O-ring" seals that failed in cold weather. It's a reminder that product tolerance varies under different conditions. The "O-ring" failed during a launch at 31 degrees. 

Failure has different costs. Not perfecting a lightbulb taught Edison to make a better one. But failure during bypass surgery can be fatal. Jesse Livermore oscillated between spectacular trading success and bankruptcy. Ultimately, he killed himself. 

We choose to accept failure, to learn from it, and to overcome it. 

What is our decision process? 

LeBron took heat for this pass to Danny Green, but I'll argue that the angle and "contestedness" of the shot made the pass a better choice. "Resulting" (grading outcome not process) isn't the way to gauge decisions. 

Talent drives fortunes. Larry Bird's arrival in Boston after the 1978-1979 season added 32 wins to the Celtics, from 29 to 61. That coincided with Bill Fitch being named Coach of the Year. The Trailblazers won 11 more games during Bill Walton's first, injury-plagued season. Michael Jordan's Bulls improved from 27-55 to 38-44 in his first year. Kevin Pelton rates impact of draftees on championships since 1989 using "wins added" metric. 

Skill and luck drive results. Chess and basketball are on the higher end of skill. Gambling is on the low end. Supreme skill reduces the chance of luck. Tiger Woods finished each practice making a hundred consecutive eight foot putts. That PGA season he missed nothing inside four feet. Woods used work to reduce failure.

Buddhist koans are 'conversations' that help us understand the nature of being. Here's an introduction from Elegant Failure: A Guide to Zen Koans

Yen-kuan’s Rhinoceros Fan 

If you attain the fundamental point, then you understand that the horn on the top of its head is sharp. 

If you don’t stop there, but move past, then it becomes clear: Wind blows, pinetree shakes. However, these two are not yet complete. 

What is it that completes these two? Haahh!! In winter it chills to the bone. In springtime it caresses the skin.

What does it mean? I choose to think it means, "accept the nature of things" yet realize things change. The nature of competition is that success and failure are residue. And that winning and losing are not unchangeable. 

Sometimes we promise ourselves not to be fooled again.

None of us want failure, but adversity is our companion, our teacher. What have we reviewed this week?

1. All possessions are not equal. Points per possession are substantially higher off steals than from dead balls or defensive rebounds. Reducing turnovers (as one of the Four Factors) helps get statistics on our side. 

2. Price is what you pay; value is what you get. As the NBA trade deadline approaches, remember there will be different interpretations. A trade that improves a team may not play well on social media if a popular player leaves. Care more about what helps our teams than the public perception.

3. "Win this possession." Small changes may have profound effects (the Butterfly Effect). Because about a third of games are decided by two possession or less, every possession matters. A couple of turnovers, missed free throws, or defensive errors and mistakes may have large repercussions.

Lagniappe. "Success is practiced."