Thursday, August 25, 2022

The Most Overrated and Underrated Statistics in Basketball

"Measure a thousand times, but cut only once." - Turkish proverb

We know from Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper and follow-on, that the 'Four Factors' of shooting percentage differential, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws define outcomes. SPCA isn't just about kindness to animals. Score, protect, crash, attack.

Tracking stats is labor intensive. Go to the trouble (and expense) if there's return on investment. 

Why bother? Tracking might change behaviors like shot selection, trend performance, and improve outcomes

Tracking sees contributions outside short box scores - steals, forced turnovers, hustle plays. The player who hustles back in transition to stop a fast break by saving a layup doesn't get box score points. 

Tracking sees efficiency. The sentence leads, "Miller scored twelve points to lead the Coyotes." It didn't say that she took eighteen shots and committed eight turnovers or that her defensive assignment scored twenty-five. Tracking finds content and context. 

Underrated.

Assists. In general, we underrate "possession ending" plays, actions that lead to scores or stops. Assists make passers, scorers, and coaches happy. 'Simple' plays like 'one more' passes matter. 

Steals and forced turnovers. Sometimes they seem invisible. A player steps into a passing lane forcing the passer to lift a pivot foot or throw an errant pass. 

Drawing a charge. Charges get possession and add fouls to opponents. They may help get you into the bonus or get an opponent star player in foul trouble. Not every player has the will to give up her body.

Points per possession. Efficiency matters. Five decades ago, pre-shot clock we won a playoff game 58-38, shooting 23-42 from the field. Twenty-two passes led to a wide open mid-range shot on the opening possession. 

Screens leading to scores. A great screen freeing up a driver or cutter may not be appreciated by ninety percent of observers. 

Overrated.

Subcategories of rebounds. Ten rebounds aren't always an enormous achievement, especially off missed free throws. 

Margin of victory. Some coaches leave starters in to increase the margin of victory or decrease the margin of defeat. Pressing up big or taking a timeout late in a blowout for an extra hoop? "Sport doesn't build character, it reveals it." 

Publicity. Chuck Daly said, "never get in an argument with someone who buys ink by the barrel." Don't judge yourself by your statistics or what you read online. Seek positive contributions to the team and to make players around you better. A coach told me the other day that the biggest change in sport over time has been parents. 

Lagniappe. Coach Hanlen shares tips for comfortable, consistent, confident shooting. Note he uses the shooting fork as opposed to the ball leaving the index finger. Find what works best for you. 


My 'tip' - when I thought mechanics were off, take a knee near the basket and practice shooting. If mechanics are poor, you won't have a chance.