Sunday, April 2, 2023

Basketball: "Faster Horses" or an Automobile?

Don't live in the past. Don't be the guy who wants "faster horses" instead of an automobile. 

Experience matters but shouldn't preclude openness to new ideas. What displaces faster horses?  

1. Three-point shooting. "Smoke 'em if you got 'em." The volume of three point shooting continually rises in college and professional basketball. And three-point shooting offers upsets at each level if the underdog "shoots the lights out." But don't force shots on a team that doesn't have that skill. 

2. Analytics. Shot quality analysis (watch the video) has an increasing impact on both coaching and betting. Coaches and betters derive more and better data using high level analytics. An off-day may cause defeat but give coaches and players more confidence that things will improve. 

3. Attacking closeouts. Before his death, Tommy Heinsohn speculated that quality shots might arise from more and better attacks as defenses closeout aggressively. I'm sure he meant pass and cut as well. 


4. High skill attacking off the bounce:
  • Float dribble - "call it Durant"
  • Negative/load step
  • Deceleration moves (Durant video shows a lot, too)
  • Stampede (attack on the move off the catch) 

5. Can old become new? The three-point revolution isn't just taking more threes but increasing points per possession by scoring threes, layups, and free throws. More players may evolve in the modes of Harden, Doncic, Embiid, Tatum, Jokic, and others who thrive at multiple levels. Maybe we'll see more Olajuwons or McHales someday, too? 

Lagniappe. "Stampede action" is "catch on the go" into attack.