Thursday, November 30, 2023

Basketball: Apply the Four Factors to Succeed

Good actions show up as favorable statistics. Here are five easy ways to get the odds on your side.

Regular readers know the impact of Dean Oliver's Four Factors and the extension, differential results on each. The easy acronym is SPCA - score, protect, crash, attack. Shoot, avoid turnovers, rebound, get to the free throw line. 

Effective field goal percentage (FG + 1.5 FG3)/FGA 

"Get up on 'em."

Presume that what applies to top players applies for our players as far as shot 'contestedness' 


Here's the dashboard for shots and defender proximity for Jayson Tatum. Obviously, sample size matters. On three-pointers with a defender six feet away he shoots almost 47 percent. With a defender 2-4 feet away it's 30 percent. 

Convince your players to contest shots without fouling. 

"The ball is gold." That's what my coach told us. You say, "take care of the ball" or "value the ball." When we tracked team turnovers, making the team accountable, we reduced them about twenty percent. Key points:

  • A turnover is a zero percent possession. 
  • Live ball turnovers allow high points/possession. 
  • Don't commit Doc Rivers' "shot turnovers." If you can't make "x percent" of threes in a game (your choice), don't greenlight non-shooters in games. 
"Wipe the glass." Win the glass as "possession enders." 
  • Get over 75 percent of defensive rebounds. 
  • The key factors on D-boards are position and toughness.
  • Have a defined offensive rebounding commitment (either two or three to the boards) and have transition defense assigned. 
  • Station a guard near the free throw line for rebounding and they should get about three rebounds/game. 
"Get more free throws and allow fewer."
  • "Foul for profit." - Kevin Sivils
  • "If it looks like a foul, it will get called." - Show your hands and don't swat down when blocking shots. 
"Track this magic number, 372." Stops make runs. If you get three consecutive stops, seven times a half, both halves, you have a high chance of winning. 

Lagniappe. Chris Oliver shares... 
Lagniappe 2. Misdirection, throw back. 

Lagniappe 3. You don't have to be a professional to be professional. Be on time, be prepared, be engaged. 

 




 


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