Thursday, December 28, 2023

Analyze Efficiency Via a Boxscore and Possession Calculation

Pete Newell said a coach's job is to help players "see the game." Data analysis is part of that opportunity.

There's the long explanation and something less. 

The easiest way to calculate a team's possessions is: 

FGA - OR + 0.44 (FT) + TO

Why 0.44? From Reddit: "The .44 multiplier is because not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "and-ones" do not, while there are more than two free throws on one possession with a three-shot foul. Research has determined that about 44% of all free throws take up possessions, thus .44 is used as the multiplier."

From a recent unnamed high school game: 

FGA (55) - OR (12) + 0.44 FT (19) + TO (23) =

55 - 12 + 8 + 23 = 74 

The team scored 45 points, therefore 45/74 = .61 points/possession

The team score 41 points in regulation and 4 in overtime. If we miraculously subtract the turnovers, the team scored 45/51 = 0.88 points/possession. 

And the team made only 6 of 19 free throws which also meant leaving "a lot on the table." It doesn't take a genius to see the damage from turnovers and missed free throws. 

It wasn't hard to visualize 'real time' the cost of turnovers and missed free throws...getting back to the "Four Factors" of shooting differential, turnovers, rebounding, and attacking the basket. In close games, even small mistakes are critical. 

Lagniappe. Coach Hacks shares that all fouls are not equal. 

Lagniappe 2. Some players struggle to learn discipline at EVERY level. Repeating champions in professional sports is a relative rarity. 



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