Saturday, January 6, 2024

Basketball: Competitive Analysis (Why Teams Win or Lose)

Imagine that the Athletic Director requests a pair of reports assessing the current status of a basketball program to be received at the midpoint of the season.

In the spirit of Red Teaming, Team A (insiders, the coaching staff) is asked to prepare a one page summary of their judgement about the team's competitiveness, offense, defense, conversion (e.g. transition defense), strengths, weaknesses, and a limited (three item) plan for improvement.

The outside group, Team B gets less structure to provide analysis. They can choose to focus on players, strategy and tactics, analytics, coaching decisions, and so forth. As outsiders, they are not authorized to interview players or coaches, or to witness practice. They, too are asked to provide three specific suggestions for improvement. 

There's an overarching potential for bias. Team A "defends" their process, culture, and trajectory. Team B might be viewed as "hatchet men" by Team A, regardless of the intent or accuracy of the findings. 

In 1978, an outside "Team" of experts was given access to the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and asked to come up with independent assessment of the plans and intent of the Soviet Union toward the United States. The outside group contained numerous 'hardliners' whose bias was military buildup to contain what they saw as expanding Soviet military power. The alternative was detente (the relaxation of strained relations or tensions (as between nations) diplomats brokering a détente also : a policy promoting this).

Obviously, politics and potentially economics (defense spending) impact the views of available evidence. Thus the analogy to the insider view (coaches) and outsider viewpoint. There was so much disaffection with the process that it was changed from "competitive analysis" to "alternative analysis."

If I were on Team B, I'd include analysis in the Coach Dave Smart fashion. Does the team perform well in key areas?  

  • Half court offense
  • Half court defense
  • Transition defense
  • Pick-and-roll (offense and defense)
  • "Pressure"
What are the 'Four Factors' metrics? SPCA
  • Shooting differential (EFG%)
  • Protect (turnover differential)
  • Crash (rebound differential)
  • Attack (free throws taken and made)
The "insiders" might comment on attitude, coachability, and culture, all of which are important and impact results. 

The "outsiders" have more freedom to assess performance abstracted from 'effort'. What might seem like heroic effort to some could be viewed as undisciplined 'chicken running' by others. 

A highly 'analytic' approach might earn criticism as 'showing what everyone knows' but sometimes everyone doesn't know.  

What has proven useful in volleyball analysis has been possession by possession analysis of points scored. Did a point arise from Team A pos action, Team B neg action, Team A neg action or Team B positive action? 

Scoring individual possessions in basketball offers possible opportunities. 

What ended the possession? Score, miss, turnover, rebound. 

I charted one quarter of recent high school girls game of two sub .500 teams looking to explain change of possessions, stops, and runs. 


Team A scored on 4/19 possessions and turned the ball over 10 times. Teams B scored on 8/18 possessions with five turnovers. Team B got three consecutive stops four times and team A twice. The longest "run" of scoring possessions was two by Team A and six by Team B. 

Team A didn't go to the free throw line and couldn't generate offense because of an abundance of turnovers. That resulted in less than half the "possession efficiency" (scores/possession) of Team B which won handily. 

Team A scored ten points during the quarter which may have related to game tempo with more possessions as for the year they average less than thirty points/game. 

Three points for improvement: 
  • Reducing turnovers must be a primary emphasis. 
  • Getting consecutive stops will be critical, especially against better teams. "Stops make runs." 
  • Lack of basket attack (Four Factors) may also be a limiting factor. 
Lagniappe. Study great players for separation (acceleration, deceleration, use of screens, cutting) and finishing. 

Lagniappe 2. Do the work.  


 



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