Saturday, March 2, 2024

Basketball: "Captain Cliche," Math, and PPP

Elite-level basketball watchers understand the analytics revolution. Layups, free throws, and three-point shots define high-value points per possession basketball.

Don't blindly worship at the altar of NBA analytics. High school players, despite a closer line, don't produce at the same level. They don't get the same looks or make shots at similar rates. 

Analyze games by possessions. For example, I tracked one quarter's worth of possessions in a matchup of two area teams. One team had nineteen possessions and their opponent eighteen. The loser had ten turnovers and allowed a previously winless opponent to score on six consecutive possessions. "You can see a lot by just watching..." 

1) "Value the ball." Turnovers kill dreams, are "zero percent shots", and live-ball turnovers convert to opponent points at high rates. 

2) "Stops make runs." 

Recently I showed a "Four Factors" breakdown from the 1973 NCAA championship game, UCLA and Memphis State. UCLA overcame a turnover rate twice that of Memphis by having an Effective Field Goal percentage twenty points higher. 

Our high school team in the same year beat a team in the playoffs with an 18-game win streak, 58-38. We shot 23 for 42 and controlled tempo before the shot clock. Do the math. 

3) "Empty barrels make the most noise." Coaching is collaboration. If the loudest yellers won the most games, ADs would hire using decibel meters. Either be great talent aggregators, developers, or both. 

4) "Every day is player development day." Development translates to efficiency, the elixir of possessions into points. It's not just the time commitment but transformation. Newell's "footwork, balance, and maneuvering speed" translate to separation. Exceptional players find ways to separate and finish. 

5) "Basketball is a game of cutting and passing." Players score off many different "play types" and points-per-possession vary by play type. 

The top five PPP score off cuts at over 1.37 points/possession. 


The top five PPP off isolation score at over 1.05 points per possession. 

One might ask why not design more actions to score off cuts. 


The Celtics lead the league in PPP off spot ups which also reflects three-point scoring to a degree. 

Of course, you can track points per possession or by points scored by play type. Infrequently used actions obviously generate fewer points. 

Don't explain how your offense runs the most efficient play types while you score the fewest points in the league. That dog don't hunt. 

One of the hardest teams we defended was a team that ran spread offense with a lot of give-and-go using hard cuts and good passing. Simple, well-executed actions are often hardest to defend.

Lagniappe. Production beats promotion. 

Lagniappe 2. 

Note: it's not how many your guy scores, it's how many your opponent scores. There's both individual and team defense. Cover 1.5, your guy and half of another. 

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