Friday, May 24, 2024

Basketball: Predictive not Prognostic

Precision is elusive. Tools help us find (predict) what will happen but not necessarily the extent (prognostic). What examples exist and how will that apply to basketball?

For example, certain types of genetic testing predict increased cancer risk. They don't necessarily say at what age, what type of cancer, or the severity of cancer. 

This isn't unique to medicine. An inverted yield curve (short-term interest rates above long-term) predicts economic weakness. A recession doesn't always ensue. 

Possible Predictive and Prognostic Basketball Factors

Draft choices. In The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis interviews Daryl Morey who explains that age at time of draft, college attended, and performance predict success. For example, Jayson Tatum, drafted at 19 from Duke, became an All-NBA player. 

Stockpiling draft choices can help but doesn't guarantee success. The 76ers (The Process) haven't gotten over the top. OKC has risen with their accumulation and is poised for further ascent. "We'll see."

From Fanspo.com 

The Thunder have a veritable boatload on the horizon. 

NIL. It's premature to know how NIL will impact college basketball. Will the rich get richer? Can programs like UCONN, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and others leverage cash into wins? Are there deep-pocketed dark horses? Will a 'salary cap' emerge, promoting a return to cheating to circumvent the cap? 

Who decides which players will get it? How will it be shared within the team? Is there "incentive pay" and for what (winning?)? Will the cash caste system create dissent and disaffection? What winning formula will others copy? 

Management. What combination of upper level management, coaching, and players will generate the most championships and wins? Team construction involves many factors from talent, to cost, chemistry, and coaching. Certainly most hold the the Heat duo of Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra in high regard for proven success.   

Analytics. "Everyone knows" the value of the Four Factors (EFG% differential, turnovers, rebounds, free throws). What other factors don't we know about that teams 'hoard'? During the days of "Banner 17," the Celtics found correlation between guard rebounding and wins. Ergo, the additional value from Rajon Rondo. Will there be a 'revenge of the nerds' in the basketball operations suites? 

We don't know what we don't know. The more factors we have that align, the more our confidence in prediction. But confidence doesn't correlate well with accuracy. 

Lagniappe. Set up your defender. 

Lagniappe 2. See it to make it happen. 

Lagniappe 3. Steve Collins shares Tex Winters principles. 






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