Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Basketball: Sample Size

Make sure we've seen enough to make a rational judgment. Win over critics with competence and competitiveness. 

"Show out." Decision-making involves mental models (how we think) and cognitive biases (conscious and unconscious influences). Sample size is a mental model that takes the volume of observations into account. If we flip a coin five times and get consecutive heads, the likelihood of heads on the next flip is still 50 percent. With 50% to the fifth power, we have a 1/32 chance of getting five consecutive heads. With more observations, we know the answers will converge on 50 percent. With a single observation we can overrate or dismiss an athlete.

In coaching and other evaluation, we have 'analytics' and the 'eyeball test'. For example, in the NBA draft, the best predictors of NBA success are age at drafting, college attended, and basketball performance. Young players at the "blue chip" programs who perform well (e.g. Jayson Tatum) are more likely to succeed. 

Coaches have biases in projection, too. That could include size, athleticism measures (e.g. vertical jump or 20-yard shuttle), or knowing the player's previous coach. We may "anchor" on a player seeing them as 'comparable' to another we've seen. 

Coaches also have 'idiosyncratic' (personal) bias. UCONN women's basketball coach Geno Auriemma tells assistants that they should be able to identify the prospect being scouted within a few minutes. Dominate early or not at all. 

Also, "coaches eyes" are not the same as those of "friends and family." Coaches assess "athletic explosiveness," "sport-specific IQ," and "compete level" more objectively. 

Evaluators make projections and can deceive. Red Auerbach went to scout Dave Cowens and walked out "disgusted" before halftime. Auerbach wanted to throw the competition off the scent. Cowens was his top draft choice. 

Successful programs want sustainable competitive advantage and that usually means detailed and multiple evaluations. For example, coaches aren't going to judge players off "highlight reels" because performance is "cherry-picked." Watching game tape and seeing the player in person allow for more thorough evaluation. 

"Haste makes waste" in evaluation. 

Lagniappe. Play both ends of the court and create that expectation as coaches. 

Lagniappe 2. Win special situations. Chris Oliver shares BOBs.  


Lagniappe 3. Drill skill and toughness. 
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