Sunday, August 3, 2025

Basketball Points Per Possession (Analytics Is not a Dirty Word)

Don’t worship at the altar of analytics but don’t ignore common sense either. Get "baseline data" by asking players what they know about analytics. Unless we've taught them, expect blank stares. 

Regularly 'check in' with players on their understanding. It's less than we think. 

Let common sense guide us. There’s a continuum in points per possession depending on level. 

  • In the NBA it’s free throws, layups, and threes. 
  • Extrapolating from NBA to youth levels earns disappointment. 
  • Youth teams play zone because few young teams have proficient perimeter players.
  • "In God we trust, all others need data." 
  • To paraphrase Billy Beane in "Moneyball," if she's such a good shooter, why doesn't she shoot better? 

High points per possession:

  • Live ball turnovers
  • Free throws
  • Low ‘contestedness’ layups
  • Basket attacks off cuts
  • Open threes for legitimate shooters
Something less and high variance:
  • PnR 
  • Midrange 
  • Contested layups
  • Contested perimeter 
  • Isolation 
Low points per possession:
  • Turnovers (ZERO percent)
  • Poor shooters
  • High "contestedness" by solid defenders
  • Out of range shots 
  • Off balance and rushed shots
  • Think ROB (in range, open, balanced)
Encourage players toward winning actions:
  • Simplify the game
  • Earlier shot clock possessions before defense is set
  • Avoid zero percent possession (turnovers, "shot turnovers")
  • Better passing as "the quality of the pass relates to the quality of the shot" - Pete Carril 
  • More shots for better shooters, fewer shots for 'limited' shooters ("Just because I want you on the floor doesn't mean I want you to shoot." - Bob Knight)
  • Offensive rebounds create higher percentage (2nd shots)
  • Players who "attack and finish" also create chances for more free throws
Play to 'your' rules. If no shot clock, then no penalty for using time to get better shots. 

More possessions, better possessions, and reduced "bad possessions" are the tickets to success. 

Lagniappe. Develop an ATO portfolio. 

Lagniappe 2. Never allow ourselves to be victims.  

at