Sports - Moving the Needle

In an analog world, some physical action moved a "needle" incrementally - speedometers, pressure gauges, temperature sensors. Only significant inputs could "literally" move the needle signaling change.

Moving the needle in basketball can result from a variety of events:

• Ownership change can reset a franchise change.
• Philosophical change can work (OKC) or not work so much (Philly).
• A draft choice like Victor Wembanyama can produce tectonic shifts
• Rules changes (shot clocks, lane width, no hand checks, and three-point shooting) leave footprints.
• Coaching change sometimes changes outcomes or lives with transformational coaching.
• Structural change (e.g. NIL, transfer portal). 

The degree of change depends on many factors. 

Money

The Dodgers are a "legacy franchise" but achieved 'escape velocity' with a free spending policy. The Dodgers spend over five times as much as the Miami Marlins. Bricks and feathers by comparison. 

The NBA salary cap has punitive impact designed to "level the playing field." Here's data from Brave AI:

Top 3 (Most Efficient Spending per Win)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

   • Active Payroll: ~$184.4M

   • Wins: 57

   • Cost per Win: ~$3.23 million

   • High efficiency despite average spending, leading the league in wins. 

2. San Antonio Spurs

   • Active Payroll: ~$175.7M

   • Wins: 55

   • Cost per Win: ~$3.20 million 

3. Detroit Pistons

   • Active Payroll: ~$178.4M

   • Wins: 53

   • Cost per Win: ~$3.37 million 

Bottom 3 (Least Efficient Spending per Win)

1. Sacramento Kings

   • Active Payroll: ~$187.4M

   • Wins: 19

   • Cost per Win: ~$9.86 million

   • Highest cost per win due to poor performance despite high spending. 

2. Golden State Warriors

   • Active Payroll: ~$204.9M

   • Wins: 35

   • Cost per Win: ~$5.85 million 

3. Washington Wizards

• Active Payroll: ~$162.9M

• Wins: 17

• Cost per Win: ~$9.58 million 

It's easier to argue that management efficiency varies a lot. 

Philosophical Change

Sam Presti is the architect of transformation of OKC into a superpower with key moves from 2019 launching the Thunder. Sometimes you have to move on and draft well. This understates the process:

1. Paul George Trade (2019):
   Presti traded Paul George to the LA Clippers for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), Danilo Gallinari, and five future first-round picks (including picks in 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025, and 2026), plus two pick swaps. This trade delivered the franchise cornerstone in SGA and laid the foundation for the rebuild. 

2. Russell Westbrook Trade (2019):Shortly after, Presti sent Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets for Chris Paul and two first-round picks (2024 and 2026, both top-four protected), plus two pick swaps.  This move accelerated the rebuild by clearing cap space and adding more future assets. 

The Needle Moves in Both Directions

Within a community, a program might move up or down at the confluence of circumstances. 

• Coaching change may foster development and/or player acquisition or retention. Players do follow coaches. 
• A youth program may have strong vertical integration or successful player development. 
• Players leave under choice or inducements (e.g. financial aid) for prep or private programs. If you lose several exceptional players, you can become a "losing program" and lose more players in the future. That doesn't imply nefarious behavior, just reality. 
• The evolution of NIL and the transfer portal can "trickle down" and cause players to "chase the rainbow." 

It's an oversimplification to assign blame or bad intent to any parties. Everyone looks out for their best interests, resulting in winners and losers in a zero sum game. 

Lagniappe. Fundamental excellence most often explains results without ignoring the impact of talent, health, and occasional luck. 

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