Point totals depend on possessions, pace, and points per possession.
Possessions. Numbers vary but here's an estimate from Kenpom:
"We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula: FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA. For each team, possessions are counted for the team and their opponents, and then averaged. A team's average tempo is total possessions divided by minutes."
Pace. Some teams play fast and some play slowly. The average number of possessions in a college game runs between 60 and 80. Faster pace should result in more points...for both teams.
Points per possession. This varies with scoring efficiency, types of shots taken, and how a possession is initiated. For example, live-ball turnovers result in the highest points per possession. Poor shooting and high turnovers corrupt points per possession. In Dean Smith's classic, "Basketball: Multiple Offense and Defense, he noted their scoring around 0.85 points/possession. It's much higher now. Three-point shooting is a major factor there.
Better shots follow better decision-making, skilled passing, better shooting, and 'easier' shots made in transition and off offensive rebounds.
Analyze individual possessions and where points arise:
- Transition
- Sets
- By scoring area - layups, mid-range, threes, free throws
- Versus man or zone
- Versus pressure defense
Analyze shot quality by player, area, and "contestedness."
Consider studying scoring by play type.
Isolation, beloved, tends to be far less efficient.
Examine EFG%
Avoid zero percenters particularly airballs and turnovers.
How good is our passing? Are we getting assists and hockey assists?
Are we a good offensive rebounding team and getting putbacks?
Where does the rubber meet the road? In a game last night, a high school team I follow had 44 FGA, 6 offensive rebounds, 22 turnovers, and 13 FTAs. That calculates to 66 possessions.
39 points/66 possessions (0.59 points/possession)
EFG% was .304
FT% was 12/13 (92%)
Assists (6)
Ineffective possessions (poor shooting, few assists, high turnovers) were all easy explanations.
Practical applications:
- Reduce turnovers.
- Pass better (the quality of the shot relates to the quality of the pass).
- Take better shots. Review shot charts.
- Shoot better (build skill).
- Make your free throws.
Lagniappe. Simple can work. Use multiple hoops. Make it competitive. Track.