Basketball: Why Aren’t We Scoring More?

Few teams enjoy such defensive proficiency to win by defense alone. Why can’t we score? At low levels it usually easy - lack of skill results in turnovers, low shooting percentage, few assists, and poor shots. 

Point totals depend on possessions, pace, and points per possession. 

Possessions. Numbers vary but here's an estimate from Kenpom:

"We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula: FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA. For each team, possessions are counted for the team and their opponents, and then averaged. A team's average tempo is total possessions divided by minutes."

Pace. Some teams play fast and some play slowly. The average number of possessions in a college game runs between 60 and 80. Faster pace should result in more points...for both teams. 

Points per possession. This varies with scoring efficiency, types of shots taken, and how a possession is initiated. For example, live-ball turnovers result in the highest points per possession. Poor shooting and high turnovers corrupt points per possession. In Dean Smith's classic, "Basketball: Multiple Offense and Defense, he noted their scoring around 0.85 points/possession. It's much higher now. Three-point shooting is a major factor there. 

Better shots follow better decision-making, skilled passing, better shooting, and 'easier' shots made in transition and off offensive rebounds. 

Analyze individual possessions and where points arise:

• Transition
• Sets 
• By scoring area - layups, mid-range, threes, free throws
• Versus man or zone
• Versus pressure defense

Analyze shot quality by player, area, and "contestedness."

Consider studying scoring by play type. 

Cuts generate high points per possession in the NBA. 

Isolation, beloved, tends to be far less efficient. 

Examine EFG% 

What is our Free throw percentage? 

Avoid zero percenters particularly airballs and turnovers. 

How good is our passing? Are we getting assists and hockey assists? 

Are we a good offensive rebounding team and getting putbacks?

Where does the rubber meet the road? In a game last night, a high school team I follow had 44 FGA, 6 offensive rebounds, 22 turnovers, and 13 FTAs. That calculates to 66 possessions. 

39 points/66 possessions (0.59 points/possession)

EFG% was .304

FT% was 12/13 (92%)

Assists (6)

Ineffective possessions (poor shooting, few assists, high turnovers) were all easy explanations. 

Practical applications:

• Reduce turnovers.
• Pass better (the quality of the shot relates to the quality of the pass).
• Take better shots. Review shot charts.
• Shoot better (build skill).
• Make your free throws.

Lagniappe. Simple can work. Use multiple hoops. Make it competitive. Track.