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Monday, November 3, 2025

Basketball - Inside the Numbers, An Early Look

First, I don't gamble. Study numbers to understand the game. As a Celtics fan, I'm not optimistic, not because of management or coaching, but because of the talent drain from finances and injury.

Let's look at the Four Factors differentials for Boston after a handful of games. Sample size deserves mention as a limitation. 

These do not include the Celtics shooting 11-51 on threes last night or their being outrebounded by 19. 

EFG% differential

"Just because I want you on the floor, doesn't mean I want you to shoot." - Bob Knight

Rebounding differential 

"Get me the ball, Danny." - Gene Hackman, "The Replacements"

Turnovers

"The ball is gold." - Coach Sonny Lane

Portland is the high forced (21+), high own turnovers (16+) team

Free throws  

“...and you will make your second shot” - Gene Hackman, in "Hoosiers"

Allowing 12 more free throws per game is one indictment, although indirect, of rim protection

Some will say, "the only stat that matters is the scoreboard." Hard to refute that. The top teams necessarily master key areas. The basketball venue is the Court of Truth. 

Lagniappe. Pop wisdom.