More Basketball Video Teaching Lessons

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Great players find ways to get open. Miami draws two and Adebayo who is a threat from the perimeter, sets up a drive and gets an "easy" stepback for him.  

Jaylen Brown has a long memory of a Game 7 loss to the Heat. He gets downhill and has a variety of finishes. 

Another variation on the "draw 2" theme. Brown draws help, kicks out and gets rotation, opening Hauser in the filled corner. 

How one action morphs into another. A possible high ball screen turns into a downscreen, DHO (Zoom) action. But there's more as Scheierman gets a flare screen for a three.

 

Variation on the "live-ball turnover" theme as the Celtics score an infrequent transition hoop en route to 53 in the first frame. 

The Heat exploit drop coverage. White has to choose and leaves the corner to help high and Larsson exploits that with a corner cut. 

The Heat go zone and Celtics like to get the ball to a playmaker in the middle. The Heat extend "north" and Tatum finds Queta for a dunk. 

Brown (43 points) is not a "one-trick pony." The Heat double him, Queta makes a '45 cut' and Brown finds him for a dunk. 

It wasn't all "sunshine and roses" for the Celtics. Joe Mazzulla talks about finding 10-15 possessions that could be managed better. Garza isn't really stopping penetration or contesting the corner three. This was not a good defensive possession. 

Lagniappe. "You recruit for who they are, not just what they can do." 

Geno Auriemma shares what he looks for in recruits and his non-negotiables.

"When I watch them play...plays their butt off every possession. They come down here, they get a rebound, they outlet it, and they get a layup at the other end. Then they run back, block a shot, go down… https://t.co/cyCTGJIlTZ pic.twitter.com/GYZcIXO2yN

— Coach AJ 🎯 Mental Fitness (@coachajkings) April 1, 2026

Five Examples of Analytics Worth Considering

The "godfather" of analytics, Dean Oliver (Basketball on Paper), triggered an explosion of mathematical "explanations" for winning.

There's a mindset of "you know it when you see it" and another of "you know it when you measure it." Every game sums a mass of individual possessions. 

"Everybody knows that" became quantitative (measurable). For the less analytically-inclined, a brief review. 

1. Four Factors (SPCA - shoot, protect the ball, crash, attack the basket)

More recent analysts have emphasized "differential" shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws. 

1. "Efficiency Dominance" (Shooting + Turnovers)

This is statistically powerful. Shoot a higher Effective Field Goal percentage than your opponent and turn the ball over less, you win the "points per possession" battle on both fronts.

• Why it works: Make and take more shots (because you aren't throwing them away). This combo covers 65% of Oliver's weighted scale.

2. The "Possession Powerhouse" (Turnovers + Offensive Rebounding)

Ideal for teams without elite shooters. This formula focuses on volume. If you win both of these, you will almost certainly take significantly more field goal attempts than your opponent.

• Why it works: Even if you shoot a lower percentage, having 10–15 more shot attempts than your opponent can negate their shooting accuracy.

3. "Physical Dominance" (Rebounding + Free Throw Rate)

For teams with a dominant "inside-out" game.

• Why it works: By winning the glass and getting to the line, you put the opponent’s best players in foul trouble and create "easy" points. This slows the game down and is often a winning formula in the playoffs when shooting percentages naturally dip.

4. "Pure Scoring" (Shooting + Free Throw Rate)

This combination focuses entirely on Points Per Shot.

• Why it works: If you are highly efficient from the field and frequently get to the charity stripe, you can overcome a lack of rebounding or a high turnover rate. This is the 55% weight combo.

2. Effective field goal percentage (EFG%)

Efficient teams take and make better shots. If all your shots were made twos then your EFG% would be 1.00. If the same applied for threes, then 1.50. But that doesn't happen. 

Let's use a real-world example. A team shoots 1 for 9 on threes and 2 for 4 on twos in a quarter with six turnovers on other possessions. 

eFG% = 2 + (0.5 x 1) x 100  = 2.5/13 = 19.23% 

                            13

Coach Auriemma recently argued that the low shooting percentages on three in the tournament creates problems for many teams. 

3. Net Rating (point differential per 100 possessions)

This creates multiple inferences. Coach Wooden's adage, "Basketball is a game meant to be played fast" holds true when you have great talent. More talent, higher net rating, bigger value for more possessions. 

It also means that playing at a slower pace makes more sense for less dominant teams. 

4. Assist to turnover ratio (possession ending)

Assists are part of positive possession enders (baskets). Turnovers are negative possession enders (zero percent possessions). Pete Carril said, "The quality of the shot relates to the quality of the pass." Doc Rivers calls bad shots "shot turnovers." Assists build dreams and turnovers destroy them. 

Top NBA teams in assist-to-turnover ratio. Maybe what we should also know is which teams have the lowest assist-to-turnover ratios allowed. Who doesn't allow assists while forcing turnovers? 

I'm sure the data is there, but proprietary. 

Look at 'stopping threes, forcing turnovers, and defensive rebounding percentage. 

What I can't find are 'clean data' on "team possession ending" via a sum of turnovers forced, defensive rebounding, charges taken, and so forth. 

5. Net Points (differential offensive and defensive rating) may be supplanted by net points. 

Net Points, evaluates individual performance by assigning credit and blame for every play (rebounds, shots, turnovers) based on difficulty and impact. 

For the 2024-2025 NBA season, the top ten leaders in Net Points are:

1. Nikola Jokic: +427 (Offense: +365, Defense: +61)

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +345 (Offense: +304, Defense: +40)

3. Karl-Anthony Towns: +203 (Offense: +164, Defense: +39)

4. Jayson Tatum: +183 (Offense: +134, Defense: +49)

5. Alperen Sengun: +181 (Offense: +71, Defense: +111)

6. Jarrett Allen: +169 (Offense: +105, Defense: +65)

7. Domantas Sabonis: +167 (Offense: +127, Defense: +40)

8. Giannis Antetokounmpo: +164 (Offense: +107, Defense: +57)

9. Jaren Jackson Jr.: +162 (Offense: +118, Defense: +44)

10. Donovan Mitchell: +153 (Offense: +151, Defense: +2)

Based on the latest data from ESPN Analytics for the 2025-2026 season, the top leaders in Net Points are:

1. Nikola Jokic: +442 (Offense: +380, Defense: +62)

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +360 (Offense: +318, Defense: +42)

3. Alperen Sengun: +195 (Offense: +80, Defense: +115)

4. Karl-Anthony Towns: +190 (Offense: +150, Defense: +40)

5. Jayson Tatum: +188 (Offense: +138, Defense: +50)

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo: +185 (Offense: +125, Defense: +60)

7. Domantas Sabonis: +178 (Offense: +135, Defense: +43)

8. Jaren Jackson Jr.: +175 (Offense: +125, Defense: +50)

9. Donovan Mitchell: +168 (Offense: +165, Defense: +3)

10. Jamal Murray: +160 (Offense: +140, Defense: +20)

We don't need "exotic" statistics to improve. Apply "actionable" stats (don't let bad shooters take threes and emphasize valuing the ball). More shots via fewer turnovers and a higher percentage of quality shots translate to more success. We found that merely tracking (shot charts and turnovers) raised accountability.

Lagniappe. Excellent article on making practice more competitive. Worth printing and sharing with players. 

Basketball - Ambiguity and Uncertainty

Ambiguity refers to a lack of clarity where a situation can be interpreted in multiple ways (unknown unknowns), causing confusion, while uncertainty describes a lack of knowledge about future outcomes or probabilities when the situation is already understood (known unknowns), triggering doubt. Ambiguity focuses on what to do; uncertainty focuses on what will happen." - AI 

Make better sense of ambiguity. How do we improve decision-making? That requires training, practice, and applying tools to guide decisions. Let's consider a few:

Experience (pattern recognition/recognition primed decisions)

• Chess (chunking arrangements of pieces)
• Firefighting (accumulated vs variety of fires/expected results) - excellent local firefighters will not manage the same types of fires as the "Red Adair" teams would. All expertise is not equal. 

Basketball - Basketball IQ takes time and training. The elite point guards have or acquire superior vision, decisions, and execution than the mediocre ones. 

Reference/reading: Sources of Power (Gary Klein)

Algorithms - combinations of "if this, then that"

• Historical voting patterns impact campaign strategies
• Selecting Army officers (Israeli military)

Basketball - The "leading by three, under ten seconds left" fouling decision is shown to have about 85 percent success. Choose to rediscover the wheel at our peril. 

Reference: Knowledge at Wharton (Michael Lewis guest Podcast)

"The Undoing Project" (Michael Lewis) - "People don't decide between things. They decide between descriptions of things." 

Checklists 

• Preoperative checklists 
• Building construction

Basketball - Research on draftees' performance shows the three biggest factors for NBA success are: age at drafting (younger is better), college attended (strength of program), and performance in college. There are exceptions. Payton Pritchard was at Oregon for four years. Hugo Gonzalez didn't attend US college but grew up in the Real Madrid system. 

Reference: The Checklist Manifesto (Atul Gawande)

More source input/crowdsourcing

• Personal board of directors (John Calipari)
• Mentoring 

Basketball - The "Nick U'Ren/Steve Kerr" decision to replace Bogut with Iguodala that led to the Warriors rallying from a series deficit to beat the Cavs in the NBA Finals. Another is the Brad Stevens collaborative decision-making culture.

Reference: The Wisdom of Crowds (James Surowiecki) examines how large groups often inform better decisions than individuals or experts.

Simulations/situational practice 

• Flight simulators
• Stock market simulators

Basketball - Situational practice (close and late game situations) multiplies experience beyond what players experience in games. The game is chaos, so random practice creates learning advantage. 

Reference: Fake Fundamentals (Brian McCormick)

Probability

• Lottery ticket purchases
• Casino gambling

Basketball - "Hack-a-Shaq" or "Fouling when ahead by 3 late"

Reference: Thinking in Bets (Annie Betts)

Develop more tools to enhance our decision-making. Long-term decision-making needs different tools than immediate thinking. Specialists treat cancer different than they adjust to CPR/resuscitation choices.

Lagniappe. (from ChatGPT Plus, Basketball applications from The Undoing Project)

1. We See Patterns That Aren’t There (The “Hot Hand” Trap)

Kahneman and Tversky showed that humans over-detect patterns in randomness.

Basketball translation:

• “He’s hot—keep feeding him” is often narrative, not data
• A contested jumper is still a bad shot—even after two makes

Coaching application:

• Teach players: Judge the shot, not the result
• Your “ROB” concept (range, open, balance) fits perfectly here

2. Outcome Bias: We Judge Decisions by Results

People assume a good outcome = good decision.

Basketball translation:

• A bad possession that ends in a lucky make gets praised
• A great possession that misses gets criticized

Coaching application:

• Grade possessions, not outcomes
• “Winning the possession” matters more than whether the ball goes in

👉 This aligns directly with your possession enders / Four Factors thinking

3. The Inside View vs. Outside View

From Daniel Kahneman:

• Inside view = “our team, our story”
• Outside view = “what usually happens in situations like this?”

Basketball translation:

• Inside view: “We can press because we’re tough”
• Outside view: pressing increases fouls and fatigue for most teams

Coaching application:

• Use film + data as the “outside view”
• Avoid falling in love with your own system

👉 This connects cleanly to your interest in Making Decisions

4. Loss Aversion Changes Behavior Late in Games

People fear losses more (about twice as much) than they value gains.

Basketball translation:

• Teams play not to lose late (stalling, passive offense)
• Players pass up good shots to avoid blame

Coaching application:

• Script “Got to Have It” situations
• Normalize aggression late (“we attack to win, not avoid losing”)

5. Noise > Bias (The Hidden Opponent)

Lewis highlights that random variability (“noise”) often matters more than bias.

Basketball translation:

• Same defensive effort → different outcomes (opponent hits tough shots)
• Ref variance, shooting variance, matchup randomness

Coaching application:

• Don’t overreact to one game
• Build systems that win over time (“repetition makes reputations” idea)

Basketball - Character Actors - Balancing "Adams"

"Adding value" inhabits the intersection of character and competence. Psychologists recognize conflicting personalities within each of us - "Adam 1" - about dominance and winning and "Adam 2" aligned with moral values and virtue seeking. 

Competence (Adam I) → effectiveness, achievement, results

Character (Adam II) → integrity, humility, moral grounding

All of us have features of both and each of us lives along the spectrum of character and competence. 

It's easy to identify historical figures belonging in each box. 

High Character, High Competence

• Abraham Lincoln, 16th President
• George Washington, power restrained by principle
• Mother Teresa

Low Character, Low Competence

• Adolf Hitler, mass murderer, flawed prosecution of war
• Nero, Roman Emperor, indulgence and misrule

High Character, Low Competence

• Jimmy Carter, Purposeful sacrifice, flawed manager
• Neville Chamberlain, good intent, bad judgment

Low Character, High Competence

• Lance Armstrong, elite performance, ethical collapse
• Bernie Madoff, brilliant con man, defrauded investors

Coaching Translation

Every player—and coach—sits somewhere on this grid.

• Talent (Competence) gets you on the floor
• Character keeps you there—and lifts others

Be a great teammate > be a great player

Adam II guiding Adam I. Etorre Messina said it another way, "Character is job one." 

Framework for Coaches and Players

Many coaches have shared their framework. 

John Wooden - "Make every day your masterpiece."

George Raveling - "You don't get what you want, you get what you are" and "When you're through learning, you're through." Also, “The most important thing you can teach is who someone becomes.”

Dick Bennett - had a philosophy that I call "PUSH T or PUSH-through"

P - passion, drive for excellence

U - unity, put the team first

S - servant leadership, top players serve the team

H - humility, "It's not thinking less of yourself but thinking of yourself less"

T - thankfulness, live a live of gratitude not grievance

Final Thoughts

Coaches have a unique opportunity to model character and competence, however imperfectly. Ethical coaching, compassion, and sportsmanship all reflect character. Our ability to relate, teach, and share with players to add value by helping them "see the game" demonstrates competence. 

The best blend both character and competence. The worst abuse or wear out players without adding value. We get a vote about whom we become. 

Lagniappe. Good coaching can reflect reality and relationships. 

What was Ben McCollum’s message to his team when they trailed by 10 tonight?

“He slammed his white board and broke his marker on the floor. Ink everywhere. … He was just telling us we sucked, and we were soft.”

The best still hold players accountable

pic.twitter.com/t4d9D1PSs4

— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) March 27, 2026

Newell's "See the Game" Message. Hold "Feet to the Fire"

Pete Newell said that a coach's most important job was teaching players to "see the game." Coach Joe Mazzulla, like all high level coaches, sees the game through a different lens.

Exceptional players and coaches separate themselves through translation of game understanding into execution. 

Watch the video or extract the lessons to share with players:

1. Defensive rebounding equals "possession ending"

2. Giving the game what it needs

3. "Toughness and physicality"

4. "Professionalism to stay ready"

5. Quin Snyder is an amazing coach - "going to figure out matchups"

6. "Defend without fouling"

7. More discipline needed on defense to limit fouling

8. "Shot variance" a big determinant of 3-point percentage

9. "Generate good shots"

10.Physicality to defend the three - fighting through and communicating screens

11."Everyone (on the bench) has impacted games"

12.As a player, "keep that level of trust"

13.Offensive rebounding maintains/extends possession

14."3 for 2" possessions come from understanding

15.Importance of "situational awareness"

16.Fighting for extra possessions

17.Rationale for using early timeouts "set the tone...or perspective"

18.Understand how connected offense creates defensive connection

Consider how each of these applies to "our level" of coaching or teaching. So often we hear how "great" a player is when video or watching the game shows questionable shot selection, toughness, or situational awareness lacking. Film review holds "feet to the fire." 

Lagniappe. Steve Kerr emphasized mindset, mentors, and culture in his role as GSW coach. Hugo Gonzales (NBA pick 28) has performed at a higher level (based upon net rating) with game understanding, development support, and a high motor. 

Lagniappe 2. Situational awareness follows situational coaching. I recall watching a game (years ago) where a team up eight with 55 seconds (and a full shot clock) inbounded the ball and a senior guard immediately jacked up a (missed) three instead of using clock. Teams get what they accept. I'm not saying that the coach should "ream the player out in front of the team" but it can't happen ever again. 

Payton Pritchard on where his awareness on these shots comes from:

“I really don’t know… My high school coach, we used to do situations all the time of like end the game, and we would run through like, 8 to 10 situations every day of practice. And I just got really good at… https://t.co/J1VUwurRmp pic.twitter.com/VE1iufEY7u

— Justin Turpin (@JustinmTurpin) March 28, 2026

Sports - Moving the Needle

In an analog world, some physical action moved a "needle" incrementally - speedometers, pressure gauges, temperature sensors. Only significant inputs could "literally" move the needle signaling change.

Moving the needle in basketball can result from a variety of events:

• Ownership change can reset a franchise change.
• Philosophical change can work (OKC) or not work so much (Philly).
• A draft choice like Victor Wembanyama can produce tectonic shifts
• Rules changes (shot clocks, lane width, no hand checks, and three-point shooting) leave footprints.
• Coaching change sometimes changes outcomes or lives with transformational coaching.
• Structural change (e.g. NIL, transfer portal). 

The degree of change depends on many factors. 

Money

The Dodgers are a "legacy franchise" but achieved 'escape velocity' with a free spending policy. The Dodgers spend over five times as much as the Miami Marlins. Bricks and feathers by comparison. 

The NBA salary cap has punitive impact designed to "level the playing field." Here's data from Brave AI:

Top 3 (Most Efficient Spending per Win)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

   • Active Payroll: ~$184.4M

   • Wins: 57

   • Cost per Win: ~$3.23 million

   • High efficiency despite average spending, leading the league in wins. 

2. San Antonio Spurs

   • Active Payroll: ~$175.7M

   • Wins: 55

   • Cost per Win: ~$3.20 million 

3. Detroit Pistons

   • Active Payroll: ~$178.4M

   • Wins: 53

   • Cost per Win: ~$3.37 million 

Bottom 3 (Least Efficient Spending per Win)

1. Sacramento Kings

   • Active Payroll: ~$187.4M

   • Wins: 19

   • Cost per Win: ~$9.86 million

   • Highest cost per win due to poor performance despite high spending. 

2. Golden State Warriors

   • Active Payroll: ~$204.9M

   • Wins: 35

   • Cost per Win: ~$5.85 million 

3. Washington Wizards

• Active Payroll: ~$162.9M

• Wins: 17

• Cost per Win: ~$9.58 million 

It's easier to argue that management efficiency varies a lot. 

Philosophical Change

Sam Presti is the architect of transformation of OKC into a superpower with key moves from 2019 launching the Thunder. Sometimes you have to move on and draft well. This understates the process:

1. Paul George Trade (2019):
   Presti traded Paul George to the LA Clippers for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), Danilo Gallinari, and five future first-round picks (including picks in 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025, and 2026), plus two pick swaps. This trade delivered the franchise cornerstone in SGA and laid the foundation for the rebuild. 

2. Russell Westbrook Trade (2019):Shortly after, Presti sent Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets for Chris Paul and two first-round picks (2024 and 2026, both top-four protected), plus two pick swaps.  This move accelerated the rebuild by clearing cap space and adding more future assets. 

The Needle Moves in Both Directions

Within a community, a program might move up or down at the confluence of circumstances. 

• Coaching change may foster development and/or player acquisition or retention. Players do follow coaches. 
• A youth program may have strong vertical integration or successful player development. 
• Players leave under choice or inducements (e.g. financial aid) for prep or private programs. If you lose several exceptional players, you can become a "losing program" and lose more players in the future. That doesn't imply nefarious behavior, just reality. 
• The evolution of NIL and the transfer portal can "trickle down" and cause players to "chase the rainbow." 

It's an oversimplification to assign blame or bad intent to any parties. Everyone looks out for their best interests, resulting in winners and losers in a zero sum game. 

Lagniappe. Fundamental excellence most often explains results without ignoring the impact of talent, health, and occasional luck. 

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