Total Pageviews

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Teachable Moments

The "truth machine" shares lessons. Young players should study film to learn to create advantage. 

The Celtics-Warriors game informed a lot of lessons. 

Simple is powerful. Draymond Green assists on the SLOB give-and-go.  


Creating advantage. Spacing starts well for the high ball screen and Tatum gets 'early advantage.' The defense collapses and he finds the "penetrate and pitch" three with the filled corners. 


Even great players make bad plays like a challenged crosscourt pass. 


"Set up your cut." Classic "backdoor cut" with a cut toward and then an "urgent cut" away from the ball. 


Historically, a "knock" on Jaylen Brown was an inability to go left. He has addressed that while scoring about 29 points per game. 


The best shot fake is "a shot not taken." Note that on the fake the ball barely clears the top of his head. 


Horns into a backscreen, then a White slip from a possible double staggered screen and it's easy money.
 

Exceptional players separate. Tatum uses a mini "negative step" and then has the explosiveness to get to the rim. 


"The ball has energy." Four players touch the ball over about five seconds. Players are often open "behind the ball" and Queda finds the solution. 


"They're just in it for the money." In Game 69, Derrick White pursues relentlessly, forces a live ball turnover and the Celtics convert with numbers and an open three. White was lightly recruited coming out of high school and became a connector, first round draft choice, and star.


Lagniappe. Excellent players find "microadvantages" and strong defenders limit them. 
Posted by at

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Basketball - "You Answer to One Guy"


Note: Readers matter. Feedspot.com ranks this blog in the Top 100 of all basketball blogs and the top 10 of rss basketball feeds. Thank you. 

For whom do you play? Simplify. Don't play for a coach, your school, or your community. Play for the girls next to you. They deserve your best. 

And that means asking hard questions of yourself.
  • What are you good at? 
  • Where can you improve? 
  • What's your plan? 
Have a written plan. Monitor it. Adjust accordingly. 

Skill Development (Technique)
  • Creating your shot and separation
  • Playing without and with the ball
  • Ending possessions (stops and scores)
"What is your varsity skill? What gets you on the court and keeps you there? 

Find your four ways to score. Making free throws should always be one of them. 

Coaches seek players they can trust. Earn that trust with good decision-making. 

Basketball IQ (Tactics)
  • Creating and limiting advantage
  • Film study
  • Learning to adjust to opponents
A key part of BBIQ is knowing what to do, attention to details, knowing your job and others. 

Impact the game as both a communicator and a connector. Adding value to the team is an intangible. 

Real-time "reading plays" comes part of the "CARE package" - concentration-anticipation-reaction-execution. 

Physicality (Strength and conditioning)
  • Conditioning (ultimate measure is VO2max)
  • Quickness to separate and to contain the ball
  • Explosiveness 
Don't get in shape. Be in shape. 

"Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is a small, circular, double-stranded DNA molecule located in the mitochondria, responsible for encoding 13 essential proteins involved in oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), the process that generates cellular energy (ATP)." 

There are invisible factors. Some people get more from training than others for a variety of reasons, including genetic variability. Maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) is the truest measure of fitness (not skill). 

From Claude.ai, "The bottom line on heritability

"VO2 max is roughly 50% heritable. Of that genetic contribution, mtDNA explains an estimated 5–10% of variance in aerobic capacity — meaningful, but far from deterministic. The HERITAGE Family Study, the most rigorous human training response study ever conducted, found that trainability itself (the VO2 max response to a standardized 20-week endurance program) varied by a factor of nearly 10x between individuals, with substantial familial clustering. That clustering includes mtDNA effects but also nuclear genes, epigenetic factors, and everything else inherited through maternal and paternal lines."

So mtDNA is a genuine contributor to aerobic capacity and superior endurance - but it's one thread in a complex genetic and physiological tapestry, not the master switch.

Psychology (Resilience)
  • Mental endurance
  • Focus = attention to attention
  • Adjustments in real time
Konrad Lorenz did experiments with goslings - imprinting behaviors with him (not geese) as the model. To an extent, coaching does the same. 

From Claude.ai   The Lorenzian insight applied to athletic development suggests a sequenced approach: early childhood should maximize unstructured movement richness (W1), middle childhood should cultivate genuine joy and intrinsic engagement with competition and physical challenge (W2), and early adolescence should allow competitive identity to crystallize through increasingly meaningful performance contexts — real stakes, real feedback, real wins and losses (W3). Each window's "imprint" creates the substrate for the next.

Human athletes seem to need the experience during the sensitive window to be interpreted as meaningful, competence-building, and self-authored. Early sport experiences that are coercive, humiliating, or entirely externally driven appear to actively impede the development of the intrinsic motivational architecture — even when the motor skills are acquired. This is why pressure-driven early specialization programs sometimes produce technically skilled but psychologically fragile athletes who burn out precisely when they reach the competitive levels their training was designed for.

If you read about Roger Federer, see a story about a wide array of athletic development, later channeled into tennis. That's an extreme example showing value for global athletic development early.

Lagniappe. Demanding not demeaning... 

 

Posted by at

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Basketball - The Frog Problem

Every program has them.

Players who show flashes but not consistency, work hard some days, and compete until uncomfortable. They’re not bad players. They’re not reliable players. They haven't earned trust. 

And that’s the distinction. Talent gets you noticed. Reliability gets you minutes.

The Coach’s Job

Many coaches think their job is to find the best players. It’s not. Your job is to eliminate the players you can’t trust.

Ask:

  • “Who breaks under pressure?”

  • “Who is soft facing contact?”

  • “Who doesn’t pay attention to the details?"

Because those behaviors don’t disappear. They persist and kill dreams.

Film Doesn’t Lie

The game reveals patterns. Who boxes out? Who gets to the spot? Who takes care of the ball?

What is our identity? Turnovers are “zero percent possessions.” Some habits are zero percent winning habits, literally coach killers. 

The Prince Doesn’t Announce Himself

Winning players are not always the most obvious. The “prince” often looks like: the player who talks on defense every possession, the one who sprints the floor to both ends, the one who always cuts hard and takes quality shots. 

They are consistent, coachable, dependable and shape reps you can count on.

Creeping Commitment

We don’t hand out trust as a lump sum. We build it. First shift, can you execute? Second shift, can you repeat it? In the bigger moment can you do it under pressure?

Minutes are earned the same way investments should be: Gradually. With evidence.

The Hidden Edge

Programs that win consistently don’t just find talent. They refine. They find players with elite habits, correct relentlessly, and reward consistency.

Top coaches find trustworthy players. 

You don’t need to fall in love with every player. You just need to see clearly. Most players are frogs. Because if you’re disciplined with honest evaluation, you’ll find your princes.

And you’ll know why they’re different. 

Lagniappe. The ability to learn from failure separates the best from others. 

Posted by at

Monday, March 16, 2026

Basketball - Magic Words

Why does she add value? "She's a connector." Invest in yourself to influence subordinates, peers, and superiors. Master "Magic Words."

Don't "Reach out" to players; reach them.

Nouns versus verbs

Words matter. Which appeals to you? 

  • "Play harder. Play with force."
  • "Competitors. Winners. Difference makers."
Nick Saban is a connector. "Choose to invest your time instead of spending it?" Add value instead of consuming it. 

Success versus failure

Avoid failure words. I taught players, "can't" and "try" are failure words. "Show me you can and you will."

Ask more and better questions 

People feel engagement when we ask questions. Questions signal that we are listening and interested. Stanford researchers found that "the more questions asked, the better the first impression they had on dates." 

Coach Chuck Daly said, "I'm a salesman." As coaches and teachers, we're selling our competence, character, and program. We're selling belief.

In our post-game analysis: remember the "Big Four,"

  • What went well?
  • What went poorly?
  • What can we do better next time?
  • What are the enduring lessons? 

Make it emotional

Most coaches know the story of Rudy Ruettiger, an iconic figure who made it onto the football field at Notre Dame. 

In "Teammates Matter," Alan Williams shares how when a new basketball coach came to Wake Forest, Williams had to try out again as a walk-on to earn a spot on the team. His teammates all came to the tryout to support his efforts. Being great teammates is a choice. 

Be concrete

People respond to clarity and specificity. Expectations and role definition are essential. If we say, "our best defensive player" will start, then follow through on commitment. Players and assistants want and need to know where they stand. You never forget when a coach tells you, "You're going to start because you're in our best five" or "You're the starting pitcher in our season opener." 

Lagniappe. Study five keys from Jonah Berger's Magic Words - AI (edited)

1. Use identity language

People respond strongly when actions connect to who they are, not just what they do.

Example:

  • “Please recycle” vs

  • “Please be a recycler.”

When behavior reinforces identity, people are more likely to follow through.

Principle:
Frame actions as identity choices, not just tasks.

2. Ask questions to encourage commitment

Questions prompt people to mentally simulate behavior.

Example:

  • “Will you vote?”

  • “Do you plan to vote tomorrow?”

Research shows that asking questions increases follow-through because people feel internal pressure to remain consistent.

Principle:
Questions activate self-persuasion.

3. Use “because” to provide reasons

Even simple explanations increase compliance.

Classic example:

  • “May I cut in line?”

  • vs

  • “May I cut in line because I’m in a rush?”

Adding a reason—even a modest one—makes requests more persuasive.

Principle:
People comply more when actions are justified with reasons.

4. Emphasize possibility instead of restriction

Language that highlights what people can do works better than language that stresses limitations.

Example:

  • “Don’t smoke” vs

  • “You can stay healthy by not smoking.”

This shifts attention from prohibition to positive agency.

Principle:
Highlight opportunity rather than constraint.

5. Make progress visible

Language that signals progress motivates continued effort.

Example:

  • “You’ve completed 7 of 10 workouts.”

  • “You’re almost there.”

This principle taps into the psychological idea that visible progress increases persistence.

Principle:
People work harder when they can see themselves moving forward.

Why the book resonates with coaches and leaders

The core insight is simple but powerful:

Small changes in wording can change behavior.

For coaches, teachers, and leaders this shows up in:

  • motivating athletes

  • giving feedback

  • framing expectations

  • building identity within teams.

Lagniappe 2. Hippocrates was a coach, too. 
Posted by at

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Developing Standards for a High School Athletic Hall of Fame

Melrose (MA) has a thriving Athletic Hall of Fame because the community values athletics, supports its student-athletes, and honors the sacrifices of coaches, players, and families who build successful programs.

Why the Hall of Fame Need Standards

1. Memory fades

Older candidates often lose recognition over time.

2. Reputation bias

Committees sometimes rely on stories rather than evidence.

3. Transparency

Communities deserve to understand how selections occur.

Standards add value without removing discretion from the Selection Committee. They recognize individual and team contributions, as well as excellence beyond athletics and demonstration of "sports character." 

Standards help ensure that athletes from different generations are evaluated with consistency, transparency, and historical awareness. 

Every community knows a “Hall of Extremely Good.” Standards help identify those athletes whose achievements rise to the level of Hall of Fame.

Standards are neither perfect nor rigid. Committees recognize that individuals contribute in other ways to their community or overcame unique obstacles that merit celebration. 

When standards are entered into an AI platform, candidate data can be evaluated quickly to generate an initial score. This does not replace committee judgment - it simply organizes the discussion.

Here are the Version 1.0 Hall of Fame Standards used for initial assessment of individual candidates. They rely on documentation for validation. The Committee continues to wrestle with the "threshold" to merit additional discussion for candidate induction. 

Melrose High School Athletic Hall of Fame

Hall of Fame Standards (Version 1.0)

The purpose of this framework is to create a structured, transparent evaluation system that balances:

  • Individual excellence

  • Team contribution

  • Multi-sport achievement

  • Legacy to Melrose athletics

  • Post-high-school impact

Maximum possible score: 133 points

1. Individual State / National Recognition

Maximum: 48 points

Examples include:

  • State Player of the Year

  • All-State selection

  • Boston Globe All-Scholastic

  • Boston Herald All-Scholastic

  • National honors

  • Major statewide awards 

This category rewards elite recognition beyond the local level.

2. Individual League / Regional Recognition

Maximum: 16 points

Examples:

  • League MVP / Player of the Year

  • First-team All-League

  • Regional All-Star selections

  • Conference or division honors

This category measures dominance within the competitive league or region.

3. Individual Team Recognition

Maximum: 12 points

Examples:

  • Team MVP

  • Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year

  • Captaincy may contribute supporting evidence

This category captures impact within the team structure.

4. Individual Records & Statistics

Maximum: 22 points

Examples:

  • School records

  • Career statistical leaders

  • Major statistical achievements

Records are valued even if later broken, as they demonstrate historic impact.

5. Team Success & Role

Maximum: 15 points

Examples:

  • League championships

  • Sectional championships

  • State championships or finalists

  • Leadership role on successful teams

This category emphasizes contribution to winning teams.

6. Multisport Athlete

Maximum: 7 points

Examples:

  • Multiple varsity sports

  • Leadership roles in more than one sport

This category recognizes broad athletic contribution to the school.

7. Melrose Legacy

Maximum: 5 points

Examples:

  • Outstanding Female/Male Athlete Award

  • Exceptional leadership or influence

  • Lasting reputation within Melrose athletics

This captures historical significance and school impact.

8. Post-High School Athletics

Maximum: 8 points

Examples:

  • Collegiate athletic honors

  • Professional athletics

  • National recognition beyond high school

This category acknowledges continued athletic excellence.

Committee Discretion

The selection committee may apply limited discretionary judgment where appropriate, but must provide a written rationale.

Examples may include:

  • extraordinary leadership

  • historic context

  • unique contributions not captured in the scoring system

Summary of Point Structure

CategoryMaximum Points
State / National Recognition48
League / Regional Recognition16
Team Recognition12
Records & Statistics22
Team Success & Role15
Multisport Athlete7
Melrose Legacy5
Post-High School Athletics8

Maximum Total = 133

Comments: 

“Version 1.0 standards are intended for prospective guidance and comparative discussion, not for invalidating earlier generations of inductees selected under different norms, different media environments, and different levels of available documentation.”

Additional elements can factor into a candidate's profile, for example 

  • Scholar-Athlete award
  • National Merit scholar
  • Community recognition (e.g. American Legion recognition) 

The Selection Committee recognizes that "media recognition" has evolved with time. During the 1960s and 1970s, for example, Boston newspapers recognized a handful of athletes (e.g hockey) as All-Scholastics. Now, they may select 15-18 in each competitive division. This puts athletes from another period at 'competitive disadvantage'. 

Also, the "older generation" athlete doesn't have the same access to area, league, and school publications that documented their achievements.  Candidates from earlier eras may deserve additional committee consideration when documentation is incomplete but credible testimony and available evidence strongly support elite standing relative to their era.

We continue to work on a suggested scoring interpretation scale (e.g., likely Hall of Fame, borderline, Hall of Very Good, etc.).

That helps turn standards into a true decision framework, not just a point system. The Committee expressly rejects a "Nerdvana" blind point scoring system. 

We think standards add value because:

  • combines quantitative structure

  • preserves human judgment

  • acknowledges historical bias

  • promotes transparency

Standards cannot replace judgment. But they can sharpen it.

Committee statement: “These standards were developed by the Melrose High School Athletic Hall of Fame Committee and may be shared freely with attribution.”

Lagniappe. Dr. Fergus Connolly on commitment. 

Posted by at

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Pillars for Basketball Coaching Success

Players are fortunate to learn under great coaches, directly as a player or assistant, or indirectly from reading, clinics, video, and more. 

Relationships flow from communication, listening, respect, and trust

Basketball - It's an earned privilege to maintain lifelong relationships with former coaches, teammates, and players. "Be a mentor, not a tormentor." 

Lifelong learning offers a "Be a learn it all mindset." Then be an editor -  think about what you have learned and rewrite it in a journal or blog. Use AI in your journey. 

Basketball - Name, define, research, and refine the problem. That's the Feynman Technique. 

Humility allows us to learn from everyone and to learn from defeats. Share credit and be open to new information. 

Basketball - Be gracious in victory and humble in defeat. What goes around comes around. 

"Make friends with the dead" as only about seven percent of all humans born are living. 

Basketball - Study great coaches from the past - Wooden, Newell, Knight, McLendon, Wilkens, Carril, Summitt, and more. 

Get everyone on the same page as many of the most painful losses arise from mental mistakes that compromise execution. Attention to detail separates success from failure. 

Basketball - "Fall in love with easy." It's not enough to trust that players understand. "Trust but verify." 

Studying mental models and cognitive biases - embrace the Buffett-Munger approach - work to avoid mistakes.

Basketball - 1) Avoid judgment errors from small sample size. 2) Don't make 'attribution errors' of blaming officiating, bad luck, or conditions. 3) Stay within your "Circle of Competence." Teach what you know. 

Write it down. An ancient Chinese proverb says, "The faintest ink is more powerful than the strongest memory."

Basketball - Practice schedules, drills, game plans, playbook, leadership opportunities all matter. When it's important, it's worth keeping a record. 

Diagnose and treat. You are a teacher and a problem solver. Distill problems objectively and explore a variety of solutions. 

Basketball - Remember Kevin Eastman's advice, "Do it harder, do it better, change personnel, and change when, "$#!& it's not working."

Lagniappe. When bad spacing clears a side... 


Posted by at

Friday, March 13, 2026

Basketball - Performance Psychology


Review the "Achievement Equation," which applies 'across the board' at home, in school/work, and in your extracurricular activities (e.g. sport). 

ACHIEVEMENT = PERFORMANCE x TIME 

To maximize achievement, invest time and raise your standard of performance. Ask "what do I need to do to raise that standard?" 

1. Commitment
  • Skill development has no substitute.
  • Strategy is knowing what to do in any given situation. 
  • Physicality - sport rewards athleticism, strength, quickness, endurance
  • Psychology of high performance is resilience/mental toughness. 
When she was at American University, Cecilia Kay told me about a teammate who barely played. But the young woman attacked practice with the attitude of preparing as though she would be playing full time. She didn't allow her lack of minutes to compromise her effort. That is professionalism. You can be fifteen years old with a professional attitude. Is that your best effort on homework? 

2. Value #1

The best players make everyone around them better, whether they are the 'star' or the 'supporting cast'. "Don't cheat the drill." Being a competitor in practice translates to games. If you're not in the game, encourage your teammates. 

Geno Auriemma and other top coaches film the bench. If you're not in the game, not supporting the team, and show bad body language, you won't get in the games. 

3. Impact a winning program

Everyone has a chance to impact winning even when not playing. "Stay ready" (reserve) players prepare the starting group as competitors. 

When a former President visited NASA decades ago, he spoke with a custodian. The President asked about his job. The worker answered, "I helped put a man on the moon." 

Dean Smith made it a point to mention the contribution of reserve players who helped the team win. The stars don't need anyone to gas them up. 

4. Honor your work

Nobody can reward themselves 'external' recognition. But you can award yourself integrity, courage, and character. As Dr. Fergus Connolly shared recently, there's no medal awarded for doing your job. The "Fourth Agreement" is "Always do your best." Neither apologies nor regrets are needed when doing your best. 

George Roberts was a carpenter with workers working some of his jobs. He told them to figuratively "sign your work," meaning to ensure that the quality was so high that you could take ownership. 

5. "Look for the helpers." - Mister Rogers

"Mentoring is the only shortcut to excellence." Get help from your family, coaches, and teammates. And give help to your teammates - whether instruction to younger ones or encouragement to all. 

Be coachable. Don't hesitate to ask for help. It's honorable to do so. If you need letters of recommendation, ask. 

Summary: 

The Achievement Equation: Performance × Time

Achievement is the product of how well you perform and how much time you invest. To grow, continuously raise your performance standard and ask what that requires of you - at home, in school, and in sport.

The Four Pillars of Commitment are skill development, strategy (knowing what to do in any situation), physicality, and mental toughness. There are no shortcuts.

Make others better. The best contributors - regardless of role - elevate the people around them. Don't coast through practice. Compete in drills, because how you practice is how you play. If you're on the bench, your body language and encouragement matter; coaches notice, and it affects your playing time.

Impact winning from any position. You don't have to be in the game to contribute to the outcome. Reserve players who stay sharp push starters to be better. The NASA custodian who said "I helped put men on the moon" understood this perfectly.

Honor your work. External recognition isn't yours to grant yourself — but integrity and character are. Do your best every time, and neither apologies nor regrets are necessary. "Sign your work," as carpenter George Roberts told his crew: make it good enough to be proud of.

Seek and give help. Mentoring is the only genuine shortcut to excellence. Be coachable, ask for help without hesitation, and pay it forward to teammates. That exchange — receiving guidance and offering encouragement — is how teams and individuals grow together.

Lagniappe. Champions are champions before they have won.  

Lagniappe 2. My coach's primary emphasis was "sacrifice." Winning takes sacrifice. You may win with talent, but you'll never become a champion without sacrifice.  

Posted by at

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Celtics Basketball - Doing the Math

Keywords: Core basketball, analytics, possessions, possession enders 

"Get more and better possessions than your opponents." - Pete Newell 

The Celtics are in the fringes of the top four teams in the NBA, despite losing Holiday, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet to free agency, and Jason Tatum injured for 62 games of the season. Boston went 41-21 in his absence. 

How? They master possessions. Figuratively "pound" these truths into the lexicon of our teams. Coach Joe Mazzulla emphasizes "winning the margins." 

As young players, we heard "win this quarter." Win the majority of quarters and you win a lot of games. "Win this possession" is even better. 

"Productive possessions" happen via "possession enders," players who get "scores and stops." "Turnovers kill dreams." Turnovers are "zero percent possessions" and the willingness to accept "airball threes" means accepting Doc Rivers' "shot turnovers." 

Math informs the "three and D" concept of scores and stops.

The Celtics are the "slowest" team in the NBA in pace. Yet, they are among the  league in:

Offensive rating: points per 100 possessions (second)

Turnover percentage: (second)

Net rating: point differential per game (second)

Defensive rating: (fifth)

Offensive rebounding: (fifth)

Under the radar players can add unexpected value (AI metrics)

Rookie-class hustle rankings

In the NBA’s rookie ladder tracking and hustle categories, Hugo González has ranked:

  • 2nd among rookies in loose balls recovered

  • 3rd among rookies in contested shots

  • 4th among rookies in deflections

These are exactly the types of plays the NBA tracks as “hustle stats,” such as deflections, charges drawn, screen assists, and loose-ball recoveries.

Defensive activity metrics

Advanced tracking also highlights how active he is defensively:

  • Deflections: roughly 80th percentile among players

  • Defensive versatility: 98th percentile in positional coverage

  • Defensive impact metrics: around the 88th percentile for defensive plus-minus measures

That aligns with scouting reports that emphasize his motor, second efforts, and ability to guard multiple positions.

How does it apply for our teams? 

Lessons for Our Teams

The implications for younger teams are clear.

1. Track what matters.
We found that shot charts, turnover rates, and rebound percentages shaped behavior.

2. Value the hidden plays.
Deflections, charges, and contested shots rarely appear in box scores but win games.

3. Celebrate possession savers.
Players who protect the ball and pressure opponents are force multipliers.

4. Teach possession discipline.
Turnovers kill dreams. Shot selection matters.

5. Look beyond the box score.
Winning players often reveal themselves in the margins. 

Look beyond the boxscore to find winning players.

Lagniappe. Slant board exercises have value for ankles and knees. 

Posted by at

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Basketball - Inductive Thinking

Inductive thinking is simple.

It says: “What has always been will always be.”

We see patterns. We extend them forward. We assume continuity.

If we’ve always won at home, we’ll win tonight.
If our star has always delivered, he’ll deliver again.
If nothing goes wrong, everything will be okay.

That last sentence is the trap.

It’s what some call the “nothing goes wrong” assumption. There's even a mathematical underpinning, 3/n. The larger your observations (n), the smaller your chances of error. 

But it’s fragile. We know it’s fragile because in every other domain of life, we insure against it.

We buy life insurance not because we expect tragedy - but because we understand possibility. We buy health insurance not because we plan to get sick - but because we accept uncertainty. We buy roadside assistance not because we realize that cars break down.

In sports, we often operate without insurance. We assume linearity.

The Jason Tatum Example

Take Jason Tatum. Elite scorer. Durable. Clutch performer. Year after year, he delivers at a high level.

Inductive thinking says: He has always been productive. Therefore, he will always be productive.

But playoff basketball is never guaranteed. A ruptured Achilles changed a franchise's fortunes.

Great organizations don’t reject inductive thinking. They hedge it.

They build depth, work the draft, free agency, and trades. They focus on player development with skill building, teaching, and video study. They don’t assume nothing will go wrong.

The Regular Season Illusion

Induction works beautifully in the regular season. You play the schedule, growing talent and togetherness. 

Depth matters. But the postseason changes the odds. Strong opponents, some on a roll, critical calls, and good or bad bounces. 

The margin for error shrinks. Randomness grows. Believing that “If nothing goes wrong, we’re better” often betrays us when something goes wrong.

Coaching and Induction

Coaches fall into this trap too. We deceive ourselves. 

“Our culture is strong. We’ll respond.”
“Our kids are experienced. They won’t panic.”
“We’ve beaten them before.”

Induction sets expectations. It doesn't mean we can reach them. The phrase “You are what your record says you are” captures a form of induction. Past performance matters...to a point.

Insurance in Basketball

Smart teams insure themselves.

They: 

  • Value defensive rebounding to end possessions
  • Emphasize free throws because you can't always rely on perimeter shots falling
  • Drill late-game scenarios to confront chaos. 
  • Build depth because injury and illness can impact anyone. 

They know that “nothing goes wrong” is not a strategy. It’s wishful thinking.

The Better Question

Instead of asking: “What do we expect?"

Ask: “What else can happen?"

What if our best player struggles?
What if foul trouble hits?
What if we shoot 4-for-20 from three?
What if the opponent speeds us up?

Inductive thinking assumes stability. Champions prepares for instability.

Final Thought

Induction is powerful. It allows us to learn from patterns. It builds confidence. It creates belief.

But belief without contingency is arrogance. In basketball as in life,  something always goes wrong.

The teams that survive prepare and insure against disruption.

Lagniappe. "Optionality." Two invaluable actions in the ball screen are 1) slipping the screen (screener early roll when defender overcommits) and 2) rejecting the ball screen. Arizona with successful rejects. 

Lagniappe 2. More optionality. Brown has a pair of 'off-ball options' with screens from White and Vucevic. He could basket cut or come off the Vuc screen for a three. Vuc gets the "screen assist." 

 

Posted by at

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Basketball - Hal Moore's Second Principle

Learn from exceptional leaders, like Lt General Hal Moore. 

Principle #2: 

There’s always one more thing you can do to influence any situation in your favor. And after that, there’s one more thing. And after that, there’s one more thing. And after that, one more thing. The more ‘One More Things’ you do, the better your chances are for achieving success in any situation. A leader must create time to detach himself mentally and ask:

 “What am I doing that I should not be doing? And what am I not doing that I should be doing to influence the situation in my favor?” 

A leader is paid to do three things: 

1. Get the job done and get it done well. 

2. Plan ahead - be proactive, not reactive. 

3. Exercise good, sound judgment in doing all of the above." 

- "Hal Moore on Leadership"

Basketball applications of Moore's second principle:

What am I doing that I should not?

  • Overcoaching and under teaching 
  • In developmental settings, overemphasis on winning
  • Micromanaging - As Coach Krzyzewski said, "Basketball is about making plays, not running plays." Helps having 4 and 5 star talent
What am I not doing that I should?
  • Maximizing player development 
  • Making practice as efficient as possible (Brad Stevens said that watching Belichick's practices helped) 
  • Assuring that everyone is on the same page (the most painful losses often come from mental mistakes)

    What can players not do too much? 

    • Contain the ball. 
    • Contest shots without fouling.
    • Rebound. "Rebound selfishly."
    • Take quality shots. 
    • Communicate. 
    • Pass unselfishly (rarely a team overpasses). 
    Advanced planning
    • Find a mentor/trusted advisor.
    • Have a "fallback plan."
    • Attend to details of player development, study, video review. 
    Good judgment
    • "Don't follow a lit fuse." - Get in front of toxicity when possible.
    • "Avoid giving away games with mental errors"
    • Shot selection and many turnovers relate to judgment
    Write it down

    “The faintest ink is better than the best memory.” - Chinese Proverb

    Have a clear philosophy that stands on its own. 
    Keep a record of decisions and their rationale. It doesn't have to be public.
    Track what worked and what didn't and why.

    Summary: 

    Hal Moore’s second leadership principle is simple but demanding: there is always one more thing you can do to influence the outcome. Effective leaders ask two hard questions: What am I doing that I shouldn’t be doing? and What am I failing to do that I should? Eliminate overcoaching and micromanagement. Prioritize what wins games - player development, efficient practices, shared understanding. Share fundamentals teams can never do too much: contain the ball, contest without fouling, rebound, communicate, pass unselfishly, and take quality shots. Plan ahead - seek mentors, prepare fallback plans, study film - and exercise judgment, avoiding toxic distractions and the mental mistakes that give games away. The final discipline is reflection: write decisions down, track what worked and why, and build a philosophy grounded in evidence—because the faintest ink is better than the best memory.
     
    Lagniappe. Study exceptional. 

    Posted by at
    Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)