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Monday, March 2, 2026

Basketball - Buzzwords and Sound Bytes

Joe Mazzulla fills up the postgame statsheet with buzzwords and bytes. Extract value from his lessons and those of the best. 

Give credit to the players. 

Coaches know that their livelihood depends on the players. Excellent coaches inhabit the "give credit" realm.

Never become complacent. 

The Celtics won three games in four nights, including Monday night's win in "Cream City" (Milwaukee). When asked about that, Mazzulla responded, "We'll see how it goes Wednesday." Everyone in sports gets judged by the next performance and you have to be willing to put it out there. 

Process...process...process

Mazzulla said that it starts with the Front Office. "Brad" finds guys with "competitive character." Rookie Hugo Gonzalez, playing a few minutes a game for Real Madrid last season, got a start and delivered tough defense (+27), career highs in points (18) and rebounds (16), three steals and two blocks. 

Competitive Character (An AI digression)

Doing What Wins - Not What Impresses

Competitive character means:

  • Valuing the right shot over your shot

  • Sprinting back on defense when tired

  • Screening with force even if you won’t get the ball

It’s substance over style.

Stevens has often emphasized that the game rewards people who focus on “winning behaviors” - the unglamorous details.

2️⃣ Emotional Control Under Stress

For Stevens, competitive character includes:

  • Responding to adversity without drama

  • Playing the next possession

  • Not letting officials, mistakes, or momentum swings dictate effort

It’s poise without passivity. Competitive character shows up most when things go poorly.

3️⃣ Consistency, Not Spikes

He has repeatedly valued:

  • Daily work habits

  • Film engagement

  • Practice intensity

In his programs, talent alone was never enough. The question was: Can you bring the same competitive edge every day?

This echoes your “rare is dear” theme - consistency is scarce.

4️⃣ Team-First Accountability

Competitive character includes:

  • Accepting hard coaching

  • Telling the truth in film sessions

  • Taking responsibility for breakdowns

It’s the opposite of blame-shifting.

Stevens’ Butler teams weren’t the most athletic, but they were famously connected and disciplined. That wasn’t accidental — it was cultural selection.

5️⃣ Competing the Right Way

He has described competition as:

  • Guarding the ball

  • Rebounding

  • Executing late

  • Trusting teammates

This translates to "our deal":
  • "Win this possession."
  • Choose the high percentage action.
  • Play with poise. 
  • Protect the team standard.
None of this is 'secret sauce' or 'proprietary'. Coaches with great relationships and players who care enough to buy in, commit, and compete can do this. 

Lagniappe. Execute. 

Lagniappe 2. Improvement. 

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Sunday, March 1, 2026

Basketball - The Three F Method"*

*Inspired by Cal Newport's MasterClass (Newport is the author of Deep Work)

Each of you has an overwhelming amount of work, distributed across home, school, coaching, and work (if you're not a full time coach).

Cal Newport, father, podcaster, author (Deep Work) shares how his process has improved. I've renamed it the 3F Method - Focus, Fewer, and Fabulous. 

Focus

Focus means full engagement without Zoom meetings, email, texts and high-touch, low output work. During COVID, meetings increased 2.5 times without a reduction post-COVID. "There is never just one cockroach." 

If you lead your organization, control and streamline your process. 

Removing distractions matters, regardless of the problem to be solved.

Without focus, identified problems, e.g. turnovers, shot selection, transition or half-court defense, won't get solved. 

Fewer

Less is more. The volume of nonproductive work can be overwhelming. Decide how many offenses, sets, defenses, special situations (e.g. BOB, SLOB, ATOs) you need. 

Prioritize ways to win games that are close late.

  • Offensive and defensive delay games
  • Foul shooting 
  • Strategic fouling 
  • Special situations (create and practice from your list, e.g. leading by three without the ball, 9 seconds remaining...foul or not?)

Fabulous 

Quality is our top priority. What have you done for me lately?

What matters is the quality of our work not the quantity. CEO of Spanx, Sara Blakely, put it simply, "Obsess the product." 

Choose and solve your emphasis. Presume your top priority is improving your half-court basketball defense. Within that area, decide what elements to work on. 

  • Contain the ball. 
  • Improve your pick-and-roll defense. 
  • Challenge shots without fouling. 
Lagniappe. Sets to study and share. Find a few that resonate. 


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Saturday, February 28, 2026

Basketball Bingo and Tectonic Shifts

Res ipsa loquitur, "The thing speaks for itself." Having a "keen sense of the obvious" creates winning basketball. 

Steal something today. Coaches will say, "Everyone knows that." Watch most high school games and see that everyone doesn't. 


Many more elements belong on our bingo card - making free throws in the clutch, attention to detail, communication, controlling tempo, strategic timeouts and so forth.

Key Point Expansion: 

PnR: underrated actions
  • Rejecting ball screens
  • Slipping screens
Spacing: 
  • Use the three-point line as the spacing line
  • Never cut to an occupied post
Value the ball: 
  • "Turnovers kill dreams"
  • Live ball turnovers are worst - high points/possession
Quality shots: 
  • Track "shot turnovers" e.g. three-point airballs and glassballs
  • "The quality of the pass impacts the quality of the shot
Range:
  • Track player range, if you can't make threes in practice, you won't make them in games
  • Shot charts are invaluable. The Knight quote applies, "Just because I want you on the floor doesn't mean I want you to shoot."
Watch any high school game and identify:
  • Why teams and players excel
  • Why teams self-destruct
  • A team's "offensive and defensive intent"
Why Teams Excel 

The best players make those around them better. They are mentally and physically tough, make good decisions, and play both ends of the floor. 

Excellent teams are "hard to defend." Passing the ball around the perimeter until someone jacks up a three isn't that. Good teams pressure the ball, take away the pass, and contest those shots without fouling. 

Why Teams Self-Destruct

Unsuccessful teams lose possessions by 1) Taking bad shots, 2) turning the ball over, and 3) not spacing, cutting, and passing effectively. Defensively, they don't contain the ball, can't deny penetration, and don't control the boards. 

Great Habits Create Great Systems

Strong teams have clear intent to "win possessions" and "get more and better shots than their opponent." They apply and handle pressure, get key scores and stops, and have a mindset of "whatever it takes." As Coach Dave Smart says, "they play harder for longer." 

In close games (two possessions or fewer), attention to detail and the "abundance of little things" separate champions from others. 

Think about the Celtics clip above:
- Queta locks in and gets a hand in the passing lane (possession ender)
- Hauser starts the break and advances the ball
- Hauser puts it into another gear and Scheierman ends "give-and-go"

As James Naismith said, "Basketball is an easy game to play and a difficult one to master." 

Lagniappe. The "Dean" of analytics notes a tectonic shift in basketball. 




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Friday, February 27, 2026

Basketball - Win This Possession

Coaches want players to succeed and practice is where that starts. Success begins long before the first shot of the season.

Clarity

"Compete." When you "cross the red line" onto the court, "be the best version of yourself."

Specificity

What helps you to "always be your best?" Be focused. The last possession, won or lost, doesn't matter. Win this point. "Don't cheat the drill." 

Coachability

Whatever the task or skill, do it however your current coach, club or high school wants it done. That's a vital part of building trust and trust gets you and keeps you on the court. 

Excel in Your Role

Maybe you're not a "fully-formed" player with skills across the range of basketball. You might have the skill set needed to contribute as a rebounder or shut down defender or "jack in the box" rim protector. 

Lagniappe. Part of leadership and "influence" as a teammate is likability. 

 

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Thursday, February 26, 2026

Basketball Character Is Job #1

“The quarterback position is so difficult to play… What makes a guy tick? What kind of leader is he going to be? How tough is he? How is he going to react in adverse situations?”
— Eliot Wolf (via Greg Bedard in Boston Sports Journal)

Identifying Character

FIBA coaching legend and former Spurs assistant Etorre Messina says, "Character is skill number one." 

We scout vertical leap and shooting percentage. We measure wingspan and sprint time. But how do we measure character?

"Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior." Mike Lombardi famously cultivated relationships with SEC sororities to learn how prospects treated people when cameras weren’t around.

And Bill Belichick supposedly used the $100 bill test. 

 

Character shows up when:

  • No one important is watching. 
  • There is no incentive. 
  • There is no applause. 
In basketball, coaches look for:
  • Do players sprint back in transition?
  • Do they blame the officials?
  • Do they accept coaching?
  • How do they treat the manager? 
  • How do they accept coming in as a reserve?
Examine player responses during adversity. 

Talk to former coaches, teammates and teachers. 

Modeling Character as a Coach

Players see everything. The most demonstrable means of teaching character is modeling it. 

  • Model excellence through integrity and sportsmanship
  • Prioritize relationships through communication
  • Add value through preparation, player development, and motivation
Following Up on Character

Share your beliefs with players. 
Explain your expectations about how they demonstrate it. 
Participate in group discussions to confirm seriousness. 

Winning takes talent. Sustainability takes character. 

Lagniappe. Coping with switching defenses. 


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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Basketball - Teaching Clips

Watch and share film every day. It's vital to the process of "do more of what works and less of what doesn't."

Teach players to see spacing (making and shrinking it), action away from the ball, and how good teams play hard and use hard to defend actions. 

1. Create separation. Handoff, rescreen, drive and "draw 2" and find a shooter who has leaked out.  


2. "Movement kills defenses." Phoenix fills the corner and gets "one more" passing. 


3. Simple works. Young players need to learn this. The Suns have a mismatch in the paint. Hauser is anticipating the high ball screen and a simple "screen rejection" creates space for an open three.
 

4. Get 'easy' baskets. Hauser's range and shooting ability creates "gravity." Defense helps up and Hauser gets an easy assist.
 

5. Success is subtlety. White works hard to get the ball and has positional advantage. He uses his body to ward off the defender and has a versatile finish keeping the ball away from the rim protection. 


6. "Position is everything." Scheierman adds value by tracking rebounds. Second chance points come with higher shooting percentage. Also, some have advised that having a rebounder at the free throw line is worth three rebounds a game.
 

7. Urgent cutting creates separation and a layup.
 

8. Separation is craft. Hauser gets a "mini-flare screen" from Queta and White finds him.
 

9. Variation of the same theme but Scheierman slips from the off-ball screen and gets rewarded. 


10. Effort by Vucevic with hard running pins the defender which opens up the open three. There's no "stat" for "created gravity" but that's a hustle assist for Vucevic, part of a 30-11 third quarter run. 


Two minutes of film study can teach young players a lot. 

Lagniappe. Beautiful action. It's not "Zoom" but it creates an easy hoop. 
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Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Basketball - One of a Kind

"If I put you all in a plane and a crash with no survivors, Army Chief of Staff General Bernie Rogers said to us during his welcoming speech to my class of 59 new Brigadier General’s, the next 59 names on that list will be just as good as you. No problem." - General Colin Powell in It Worked for Me

Everyone wants to believe that we are indispensable. If we disappear from the face of the earth - dead, rendered, kidnapped by aliens - someone else replaces us. You know the saying, "The king is dead, long live the king," as the new guy steps in. 

This argues for doing our best and remaining humble. Make it tougher for the next person to do as well, while realizing they likely will. 

Bill Russell is the greatest winner in sports. In fifteen years, Russell won two NCAA titles, Olympic Gold, and eleven NBA titles. After his retirement, Boston won championships in 1974, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1986, 2008 and 2024 - seven titles since Russell’s last (1969) championship year. 

Abe Lemons represented "one of a kind" humor. Examples:

"Finish last in your league and they call you idiot. Finish last in medical school and they call you doctor."

“Coaching is simple. If you don’t win, you’re fired.”

"The trouble with retirement is that you never get a day off."

“My theory of coaching is that you’re either coaching it or allowing it.”

Gregg Popovich blended a unique personality with uncommon success. 

At times he said much with few words.

"Get over yourself." 

"Pound the rock." (Do the work.)

Lagniappe. Zone actions. Throwing back is hard to defend. 



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Monday, February 23, 2026

Basketball, Sport, and Authority Bias

Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra says, “There is always a pecking order.” In “The Art of Thinking Clearly” Rolf Donell shares how deferring to others can get you in trouble, or expelled from Eden.

Coaches set multiple goals - improve the person, the player, and the team. We seek influence through a delicate ecosystem balance between supervision and independence. When successful, the balance leans toward more freedom for the player. 

Results prove the model. 

Alysa Liu

The Olympic figure skating gold medalist walked away from the sport at 16. Burnout, lack of control, and unhappiness almost deprived the sport of her talent. She resumed skating only with autonomy over her music, choreography, training schedule and intensity, and even her diet. She made fun a priority and won big. 

The Benefits of Coaching

Rams coach Sean McVay says, "Everyone benefits from coaching." The best players know that excellence runs through that pathway. McVay's results with two trips to the Super Bowl reinforce his beliefs. 

Imbalances of Power

In some cultures, "authority imbalances" led to disasters. Aircraft cockpits became laboratories exposing empowered captains whose errors (navigation, fueling) weren't overridden by subordinates. "Crew Resource Management" collaboration fixed the problems. 

You've heard this. In 2015, Steve Kerr bought into videographer Nick U'Ren's observation that the Warriors played better against the Cavs using 'small ball'. Iguodala replaced Bogut and the rest is history. 

Tim Duncan quietly led the Spurs. When Duncan took less money, accepted coaching, and didn’t demand special treatment, the locker room followed.

You may not know this. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, a Russian submariner, Vasili Arkhipov refused to fire a nuclear torpedo. Not the senior officer, Arkhipov refused to authorize launch and argued to surface and await orders. The Captain stood down. Some call Arkhipov "the man who saved the world." 

Speaking Truth to Power

Disagreeing with senior people or those higher up in the "chain of command" is difficult. Sometimes you have more information, insight, or experience with a given situation than they do. And sometimes those in charge have distractions or other issues complicating the decision. Speak truth to power all the time and you'll ruin your career. Allow misinformation to cloud their decisions and worse can happen. 

Influence

Robert Cialdini's classic book “Influence” informs key factors that influence decisions. 


Chart from Chat GPT Plus based on Cialdini's "Influence"

Heat Culture is well-known. works because once publicly commitment and consistency rule with Spoelstra and Riley. Players who sign there know: conditioning standards are non-negotiable, body fat standards are measured. practice intensity is demanded.

Two other easy ones to recall are reciprocity ("You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours") and liking. It's easier to listen and follow someone likeable. 

Lagniappe. Coaches without a strong philosophy are like explorers without compasses or sextants. 




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Sunday, February 22, 2026

Experimental Post: Playing Without the Ball

In the teaching hospital, younger trainees get tasked with much of the "scut work" - histories and physicals, drawing blood, collecting and correlating data, charting - "playing hard" yet not showing up on the metaphorical scoreboard. 

Most players treat “the ball” as the job. It isn’t. The spotlight finds on the ball. In reality, most of your job is everything that happens when the spotlight isn’t on you.

Here’s the uncomfortable math. Even the most ball-dominant NBA guard (Jalen Brunson) - this season’s tracking leader - averages about 7.8 minutes of time of possession per game. If he plays 36 minutes, that means the ball is in his hands roughly one-fifth of his night. Everyone else lives with less. 

Sports-science work on game demands puts dribbling at up to ~10% of live playing time. Different lenses, same conclusion: most of basketball is spent without the ball - often 80–90%, and more for many wings and bigs.

So the question isn’t “Can you score?” It’s “Can you help us get scores and stops when you don’t touch it?”

Offense: Your feet are a pass

The best off-ball players understand a simple truth: spacing is an action, not a location. Standing in the corner is not spacing. Holding the corner is spacing - with posture, eyes, and threat.

Off-ball offense is a three-part craft:

1) Create gravity.

Stephen Curry is the modern exemplar because his value is not limited to his dribbles. His movement bends defenders, and the league has started measuring that “gravity” precisely because it changes possessions without showing up as a touch. You don’t need Curry’s jumper to borrow his concept: be dangerous enough to occupy your defender.

2) Set meaningful screens.

A lazy screen is a suggestion. A great screen creates a purposeful collision. It frees a teammate, forces a switch, or triggers confusion. Watch Klay Thompson’s career and you’ll see a player who treats screens like passes - he gives teammates daylight by giving defenders problems.

3) Cut with a plan.

Cuts aren’t cardio. Cuts communicate. They say: I see the help defender. I see the top foot. I see the ball watching. Reggie Miller and Rip Hamilton made a living turning defenders’ heads into open shots. Their secret was not speed. They built ballads with timing and persistence. 

If your team struggles with empty possessions, ask, “Who creates an advantage without the ball?”

Defense: The ball is a decoy

Most defensive breakdowns happen away from the ball. Players “guard” the ballhandler and spectate everywhere else. That is how back cuts happen. That is how shooters get clean looks. That is how teams allow layups while feeling good about “ball pressure.”

Playing without the ball on defense means:

1) See both.

Ball and man. If you can’t see two, you’re guessing. Great defenders live in that triangle.

2) Move on the pass.

The ball in the air is your trigger. Arriving late isn't “rotation.” Arrive early with “anticipation.”

3) Do the quiet work.

Shane Battier built a reputation on details that don’t trend on social media: angles, charges, discipline, contesting without fouling. Coaches call it basketball character as it wins possessions silently.

Conversion: The game turns on the hinge

If you want a competitive edge, live in the conversion moments - the flip between offense and defense. Extra effort becomes points.

On offense-to-defense: sprint back and stop the ball. Talk early. Find shooters. Match up fast. Negotiations can't happen during transition.

On defense-to-offense: Run wide. Advance with a pass. Drag screen early. Turn a stop into stress for the other team. "Movement kills defenses."

Conversion is where “playing present” becomes real. There’s no time to sulk or argue a call. The next possession is already unfolding.

Be the standard that travels

Players don’t need more speeches. They need executable standards:

  • Sprint in conversion.

  • Screen with purpose.

  • Cut urgently with advantage.

  • Talk on defense.

  • Move on the pass.

Basketball lives in the public domain. The advantage isn’t hidden. It’s habit. When you do it well, coaches will say, "she's got a great floor game..." and mean it. 

Since you’ll spend most of the game without the ball, become elite there and your minutes and team wins will rise. 

Lagniappe. Simple can beat defenses. 

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Saturday, February 21, 2026

Basketball Coaching Truths Behind the Curtain

Coaches seek truths, including those behind the curtain. The ones that separate better from ordinary.

Here are ten with the background revealed. 

1. Talent beats tactics.

The truth: Most championships are won by roster construction, not the playbook. A level playing field isn't our goal. 

Historical context: Red Auerbach built around Russell. Pat Riley had Magic and Kareem. Phil Jackson leveraged Jordan, then Shaq and Kobe. 

Real-world example: Coaches are hired to “fix” teams that lack shooting, rim protection, or creators. Nothing compensates for lack of talent and will to execute. 

Whispers: It diminishes the mystique of coaching. It shifts credit toward recruiting, drafting, and development pipelines.

2. Defense needs attention management

The truth: Defensive breakdowns are rarely about effort. They reflect misplaced attention.

Context: Modern basketball prioritizes reads. Weak-side tags, rotations, stunt-and-recover concepts. "Dumb jocks" are a misnomer.

Example: A team can be “intense” and still give up back cuts because they ball-watch. Guys like Chris Oliver preach perception.

Whisper: It downplays toughness. It demands film study and teaching detail. 

3. Roles drive chemistry more than personality

The truth: “Chemistry” improves with role clarity. 

Context: Dean Smith was meticulous about substitution patterns and roles. So was Popovich.

Example: A player who knows when and why he plays defends harder than one guessing.

Whispers: Transparency invites accountability. Coaches want to play their cards close to the vest publicly. 

4. Top coaches subtract more than add

The truth: Complexity often reflects inexperience.

Context: John Wooden practiced fewer things longer. Brad Stevens shrank playbooks.

Example: It's not how many sets we have but what we can execute. We need stuff that can work during fatigue and pressure. 

Whispers: Simplicity doesn't impress others in clinics. 

5. Conditioning lessens degraded performance. 

The truth: Fatigue degrades judgment before it shrinks effort.

Context: Sports science shows lessened reaction time and impulse control with exhaustion. It's the sports version of the "cookie test." 

(from Brave AI) : "Decision fatigue occurs when repeated decisions, especially those involving self-control, deplete mental energy, reducing the ability to make effective choices later. 

A foundational study by psychologist Roy Baumeister demonstrated this by having participants resist eating chocolate chip cookies—while another group ate radishes. Those who resisted the cookies showed significantly lower persistence on a subsequent challenging puzzle, indicating that resisting temptation drained their willpower."

Example: Late turnovers are rarely character failure. They reflect brain drain.

Whispers: It weakens the grandeur of grit.

6. Off-ball play determines ceilings

The truth: Players spend 80–90% of possessions without the ball. That is where winning happens.

Context: The rise of spacing and gravity concepts reframed the game. Movement stresses defenses more than isolation.

Example: Teams that space, screen, and cut urgently produce high-value shots without dribbling shows.

Whispers: Highlights follow the ball.

7. Officials shape outcomes more than admitted

The truth: Foul thresholds vary by crew, venue, and moment.

Context: Veteran coaches historically "read the refs" based on early calls.

Example: Teams that adapt hedge angles and help depth early steal possessions.

Whispers: Nobody likes excuse makers.

8. Development is not linear

The truth: Growth spurts, maturity, and confidence aren't coaching genius.

Context: Many “breakout seasons” link to physical development.

Example: The upperclassman who adds strength becomes “coachable.”

Whispers: Recruiting stories relate to coaching reputation.

9. Culture enforcement plays up

The truth: Standards rely on enforcement.

Context: Bill Walsh emphasized the 49er "Standard of Performance.

Example: Optional activities take life from accountability.

Whispers: If no "task-orientation" then no accountability. 

10. Coaching influence declines as talent rises

The truth: As systems rise, the standard deviation of performance shrinks. Player decision-making takes 

Context: In the NBA, in-game adjustments matter less than shot-making variance.

Example: Coaches manage rotations and tone more than each possession.

Whispers: A mystique surrounds certain coaches. 

These truths challenge the preferred story, that charisma, scheme, and motivational speeches define destiny.

In reality, coaching at its highest level manages attention, role clarity, and simplicity. "Protect the brand."

Lagniappe. This protects the brand. Good analysis...distinguish "intentionality" (Cover 1.5) that is less likely at lower levels. 

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Friday, February 20, 2026

Basketball Lessons from Ray Dalio's "Principles" (Examining Our Process)

Preview: Pain, Our record, Stress, Versatility, Self-assessment, Emotion

Sport parallels society. A key investing principle is, "There is no get rich quick approach." Risk and reward travel together and high risk is more likely to create busts than booms. Better process presages better outcomes. 

Former Bridgewater chief Ray Dalio wrote Principles, which shares valuable lessons for coaches. The core idea wasn’t about markets. It was about decision loops under stress. “Pain + reflection = progress.”

Being “underwater” — down 20%, down 40%, portfolio bleeding — is the investor’s version of a losing streak, a 12–2 run against you, a season that isn’t going as scripted.

Washington Post investigative reporter Bob Woodward has a principle that each piece should share at least six key points. Here are six Dalio-style lessons from being underwater that translate for sports and coaching.

1. Pain Is Data, Not Identity

Investing lesson:
Losses aren’t evidence of stupidity. They’re signs your model is incomplete.

Dalio's Bridgewater culture excavated mistakes to be logged, studied, and not repeated. 

Basketball parallel:
A blown assignment isn’t a character statement. It reveals a need for better systems, reads, and communication. Some coaches tell players, "You don't care" when they haven't shown players how to see the game. 

Coaching application:
When a team is underwater, e.g. 2–5, losing late leads, the question is  "What is this teaching us about our assumptions?"

Great programs transform pain through diagnosis and treatment. 

2. Mr. Market (Our Record) Is Not Wrong

Investing lesson:
James Grant discusses "Mr. Market," who is never wrong. When you’re losing, it’s tempting to blame anything and everything. Dalio’s stance: assume the record is right and you’re missing something.

Basketball parallel:
When you lose, officials, schedule, and luck become targets. Don't apply "biases" to make excuses. 

Coaching application:
If your team can’t defend ball screens, stop blaming spacing trends. Kevin Eastman, former Celtics assistant says, "Do it harder, do it better, change personnel, or "&#*@ it ain't working" - do something else."

3. Stress Reveals Reality

Investing lesson:
Bull markets hide leverage risk. Bear markets expose fragility. Risk will find you without management. 

Basketball parallel:
Weak culture hides and survives in blowouts. It breaks in tight games. Communication and execution break down in softness.

Coaching application:
End-of-game failures don’t create cracks; they reveal them. Poor communication, lack of conviction, shaky trust - bubble to the surface.

Being underwater clarifies weak structure...possession by possession - turnovers, shot selection, rebounding, defense. Young players must learn how to win. 

4. Diversification Beats Conviction

Investing lesson:
Dalio emphasizes balancing risks. Concentrated conviction can feel heroic - until it’s catastrophic.

Basketball parallel:
Teams that rely on one scorer or one action look powerful… until that option is neutralized. Watch a player who relies on one skill, e.g. three-point shooting, get nullified when a defense takes her 'good looks' away. 

Coaching application:
Develop secondary playmakers. Teach multiple coverages. Build scoring redundancy.

Depth is antifragile.

5. Reflection Must Be Systematic

Investing lesson:
Dalio didn’t just reflect emotionally; he built algorithms and checklists from mistakes.

Basketball parallel:
Saying “we need more effort” is not analysis.

Coaching application:
After losses, log specifics:

  • Turnovers by type

  • Points per possession allowed in transition

  • Late-clock decisions

Pain without structured reflection becomes frustration. Pain with structure becomes growth.

6. Being Underwater Tests Emotional Governance

Investing lesson:
The worst investing mistakes happen after drawdowns - panic selling or doubling down recklessly.

Basketball parallel:
Teams unravel not from one bad run but from emotional reaction to the run. The difference between being 15-5 and 11-9 is often a few possessions per game creating close losses. 

Coaching application:
The true test of leadership is response to adversity. Does the team:

  • Rush shots?

  • Argue calls?

  • Deviate from identity?

Or does it narrow focus?

Underwater moments expose emotional discipline.

The Big Picture:

Dalio’s deeper point:

You are not your results. You are your decision process.

In investing, you can make a good decision and still lose money.

In sports, you can run the right action and miss the shot.

The goal is not to eliminate losses.
It is to build a process that improves because of them.

“Being Underwater Is a Classroom.”

Because in both markets and locker rooms, the scoreboard is not the lesson. The reaction is.

Lagniappe. "You can't use everything." Find one or two actions that you can. 

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Thursday, February 19, 2026

Basketball - Anti-Tank Missiles

Restoring a competitive team demands a lot - usually high draft picks, player development, trades and free agent signings, and skilled manipulation of the salary tax thresholds.

Getting high draft choices means absymal records and lottery luck, often aided by "tanking." Nobody wants to watch teams "not fully trying to win." 

The NBA plans to institute rules to limit tanking. What could that include:

1) Fines for "detectable" lack of effort (how do you know?)

2) Fines or penalties for holding out players 

3) "Play out" tournament where low end teams compete to "win" the better draft choices. 

How is the NBA planning to address this?

Current player participation rules

Rules that function as “soft” anti-tanking tools

The Player Participation Policy (resting “star” players triggers scrutiny/fines; teams can’t sit multiple stars for “rest”). It’s more about availability/load management, but it’s been used as an enforcement lever when behavior looks tank-like.

Common “speculated” fixes

Lottery tournament (bottom teams play for odds instead of being rewarded for losing).

“Draft wheel” (rotating draft order over multiple years that removes incentive to lose).

Post-elimination incentives (draft position based partly on wins after a team is eliminated “you must compete late” in season).

“Other” ideas under discussion

Freeze/lock lottery odds at the trade deadline (decrease late-season impacts of losing).

Flatten lottery odds more (reduces benefit of worst records).

Use multi-year records for lottery odds (e.g. a two-year performance window - similar in spirit to how the WNBA has used multi-year records).

Limit repeated top-of-draft rewards (e.g. no top-4 picks in consecutive years).

Expand “lottery eligibility” concepts to play-in teams (decrease incentive to favor the lottery over the play-ins).

Reduce pick protections in trades (protected picks can make tanking “cleaner” easier).

Lagniappe. Clearly, the NBA is going to do "something."

Lagniappe 2. Want more resources? Coach Hacks shares a lot. 
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