Ways to Win More or Lose Fewer Basketball Games

Strong teams find ways to win and lesser teams find ways to lose. 

Two possessions...

Via ChatGPT Plus: 

"About 31% of NBA regular-season games finish within six points—just under one in three.

That estimate comes from 6,150 games across five full seasons, 2021–22 through 2025–26. About 14.5% finished within three points, and another 16.5% finished with a margin of four, five, or six. Exactly six points accounted for 364 games (5.9%)."

And at the Division I college level? 

About 31% of men’s NCAA Division I basketball games finish within six points, roughly one in three and nearly identical to the NBA figure we just discussed. I calculated 31.2% by adding the shares for final margins of one through six points in a published historical sample of about 48,000 college games.

A small number of possessions separate winning from losing at multiple levels.

We know from analytic studies (Four Factors) that key determinants are:

1) Differential effective field goal percentage - "It's a make or miss league"

2) Turnover differential - "Turnovers kill dreams." 

3) Rebounding margin - "Get more and better possessions than opponents"

4) Free throw differential - "Fouling negates hustle." 

Translate that to "rules" that improve those marginal possessions that decide games. 

The "Moneyball Rule" 

In Michael Lewis's Moneyball there's a quote, "If he's such a good hitter, why doesn't hit better?" Restate it as "If she's such a good shooter, why doesn't she shoot better?" Don't "greenlight" bad shooters. 

"The ball is gold." 

Turnovers are zero percent possessions. Do the math. In a high school game where an 'imaginary' team shoots an EFG of 40% (many shoot worse), 20 turnovers on 70 possessions yields 50 potential scoring possessions. 40% of 50 is 20 hoops (40 points). Teams win few games scoring 40 or fewer. Value the ball. 

"Winners are trackers." - Darren Hardy in The Compound Effect

"Measure a thousand times but cut only once." - Turkish proverb   At a medical conference at National Jewish Hospital in Denver, a University of Colorado professor said, "In God we trust; all others need data." Skeptics thrive amidst a lack of data. Measure what matters. 

Be a Charity Case - win at the stripe. 

Tom Hellen said, "Teams that can't shoot free throws last as long in the playoffs as dogs that chase cars." Everyone remembers the games lost via missed free throws. Painful memories last forever. 

Be on the Same Page

One player doesn't know her assignment. That results in blown coverages, screens not set, help without recovery, bad situational basketball (mismanaged time),  and much more. Practice situations each practice. It's a thinking person's game. 

Give and Get Feedback

"Trust but verify." - Ronald Reagan   One team frustrated its coach by not knowing the offensive sets. He explained that he was giving a test on Monday and if you don't know the plays, you can't start. The players learned the plays. Bobby Knight explained a inbounds play during practice, then handed out pencils and paper expecting players to write it down. Trust but verify. Players know far less than we think. 

"Cut hard." 

Many offenses fail because players don't cut urgently. I remember watching one team run a UCLA set with a wing pass and the guard cutting off the high post. It NEVER got open as lazy cutting gets no separation.  

 "There is no 50-50 proposition."

"Get on the floor." Effort is the controllable. Judge a team not only by organization and talent, but how often they outwork opponents. 

Help your teammates.

Talk. Help AND recover. Space. Set clean, hard screens. Move without the ball. Never cut to an occupied post.  Pass willingly. Sprint back in transition. Teams that don't do all these and more haven't earned the right to win. 

Use the 'Truth Machine'

Watch video as a team. Ask "what did you see?" and "how did you react?" CARE = concentrate, anticipate, react, and execute. I don't believe in only showing positives. Read Coach Knight's "The Power of Negative Thinking" because "basketball is a game of mistakes."

Iron Clad Principles 

Pete Newell said, "Get more and better shots than opponents." How do you intend to do that? 

• All defense starts with ball pressure
• Deny dribble and pass penetration
• Shrink space - load and drop to the level of the ball
• No middle
• Help - cover 1.5, your player and half of another
• Contest shots without fouling "never foul a perimeter shot"
• Block out or "hit and get" the rebound

Love your players but don't trust them to know a fraction of what you do about what wins and loses basketball games.

Far more principles exist, but these provide additional foundation. 

Lagniappe. "The game honors toughness." Randy Brown knows hoop. 

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Basketball - "Pelts on the Horse"

Bill Parcells used the phrase “pelts on the horse” for earned credibility: proof you’ve done the work, not just talked about it. Writing thousands of basketball articles shows interest. It doesn’t prove expertise.

Even a coach’s record is a murky credential. Winning reflects players, resources, competition, and coaching, in proportions no one can fully untangle. And the verdict shifts with the results. 

Win consistently without a league title, and people say you couldn’t win when it mattered. Win the league and miss the championship, and you couldn’t win the big one. Dean Smith said that before his first two national titles, he never felt like a loser. Wooden didn’t win his first until his sixteenth season at UCLA.

So what do players remember? I hope it’s character, competence, and the basketball experience. They won’t have agreed with every decision, and if we’re honest, some decisions fell short.

Mine did. When I chose a dozen sixth graders for a three-year fellowship, I committed to them. If they committed and did the work, they stayed. But then another solid player arrives, the balance tips, and the promise I made becomes a problem. That’s on me.

It’s why I believe that in developmental basketball, youth and subvarsity, putting winning ahead of growth usually backfires. The development track has also become expensive. Fees don’t buy playing time, but minutes, like practice, carry meaning for players and families alike.

When I coached, fees ran about $500 a season, covering gym time, referees, and league fees. I took no stipend and sponsored the team into two preseason tournaments. Skin in the game. I was fortunate to be able to.

“Pelts” raises a larger question: what constitutes successful coaching? That’s a topic for another day.

Lagniappe. Earning trust. 

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Basketball - The Wall of Inspiration

I don't have a team, a gym, or a locker room. That reduces the urgency for a "wall of inspiration."

Many of you readers have all of the above and few would even consider what might belong. What works for me might mean little for you.

Suggestions? 

Coach Wooden's "Pyramid of Success." 

Coach Ellis Lane posted this in the high school basketball locker room in 1971. A former player of mine carried her laminated copy in her gym bag every day on the way to becoming a three-sport captain and a graduate of the Naval Academy. 

Basketball Quotes

A shorter list emphasizes what you consider "the best." 

• "Basketball is sharing." - Phil Jackson
• "Old men plant trees in whose shade they will never sit." - Proverb
• "The game honors toughness." 

Photographs

Images imprint memories. You decide what works for you. 

Winning exhausts champions.

Posters

Mia Hamm inspired Anson Dorrance to write this. 

Advice

Jay Bilas's "Toughness" article became iconic.

Book Summaries

Read "The Four Agreements." Then, reread.  

Miscellaneous (Lessons Learned)

"The ball is gold." (Turnovers kill dreams.)

"Sacrifice."

"Shot selection is the quickest path to basketball improvement."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Same Story, Different Day

In his Substack, Ayodeji wrote, "Your coaching can only change the lives of people who buy. Nobody buys until your marketing moves them. Which means you'll change more lives with your marketing that your coaching."

Be fascinated by the process. They call doctoring, "medical practice." Coaching might deserve being called a "coaching practice." We aren't perfect. 

Timeless principles: 

Chuck Daly said, "I'm a salesman."

Sara Blakely says, "Make it. Sell it. Build brand awareness." 

Ted Lasso simplified the message to "Believe."

How do we sell?

Make it personal. Ask players what they want. Everyone wants to be seen, be heard, and be respected. 

I had lunch with a coach recently who asked each player to write down what they wanted from the season. He said that he told them that at some point he would ask them for the paper. He hasn't asked yet. 

Be a truth teller. 

If we're going to succeed, this is what the team needs from you. Everyone can't get 15 shots and 25 minutes. That's the math. And the math doesn't treat everyone equally. 

Check in. 

Give and get feedback. What's going well? What's not? How can the process work better for you? Everyone won't love the answer. 

Keep a journal 

Include leadership opportunities, actions, and results.

Track decisions. "Stuck with the veteran over the young player...it worked out." If a young player fails, then you may have lost them and the veteran.  

It's yours and you don't owe transparency of your thoughts.

Reviewing them can help us make better decisions going forward. 

Lagniappe. A coach argues that basketball season is different. Weigh in 

With the start of the basketball season on the horizon, it is important for high school student-athletes (and just as importantly parents) to understand how basketball season presents some unique dynamics compared to several other high school sports. Understanding these dynamics (and acknowledging how these dynamics present challenges for all involved) is important and can better foster positive relationships between student-athletes (and parents) and coaches in the hopes of having a rewarding and successful season. @WisBBYearbook @JordanLoppnow @ColtonWilson23 @hshoops25 @Uorangemen2 @BrettPickartsWI @WisBCA

— Mammoth Basketball (@MammothBB) November 2, 2026

 

 

 

 

 

Basketball - These Don't Grow on Trees

Self-scouting - do you have these 'guys' or do you play 'by committee'? Develop skilled players and role players. 

Offense (Advantage creators)

• Floor general (even more, add a point forward)
• Fifty percent shooter
• PnR handler
• Screen master/roller
• Inbounder (pressure management)

Defense (Advantage removers)

• Shut down defender 
• Eraser
• Glass eater (Windex, elite rebounder)
• Chaos agent (disruptor)
• Point guard defender

Miscellaneous

• Possession ender (scores, assists, steals, rebounds)
• Physical force

Charles Barkley says, "What is your (NBA) skill?" Give the coach a reason to put you on the floor and keep you on the floor. 

As a coach, connecting with the youth program to create expectations and prioritize role players can create both goodwill and good results. 

Play both ends of the floor. If you're a B+ offensive player and a D- defensive player, are you making teammates better, impacting the game, and impacting winning? 

Lagniappe. Leaving the comfort zone. 

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Basketball - Learning from Great Coaches

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Studying great players, teams, and coaches helps us to 'raise our game'. When I think of Jon Chaney, I think matchup zone. There's much more to be excavated. 

If someone asked you as a player or coach, what differentiates you, what would you say? 

The right answer is the right answer for you and your team. 

What are some possibilities? 

1. Build culture and habits around your philosophy. 

"Win the morning, win the day." We make our habits and our habits make us.

•  I believed the quickest path to varsity basketball for young players was offensive development. 
• Another was to avoid "killer S's" - seflishness, softness, and sloth (laziness).
• Condition with a basketball. 

2. Develop rituals around that culture. 

As far as practice, I greeted each player by name and thanked them at the end of each session. Coaching grows relationships not just players. MVB has culture around pasta parties, 'decorating' houses, team songs, snacks on the bus, and more. 

Coaching middle school girls, I maximized transparency, inviting parents to practice, pre- and post-game meetings.

3. "Make friends with the dead." 

Fewer than eight percent of everyone ever born is living. Get to know Eleanor Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, Wilma Rudolph, or anyone else. 

4. Make excellence your only agenda.

"How you do anything is how you do everything." Hard work and belief in service of character and competence inform remarkable possibilities at home, in school, and in sports. Earning spots on the honor roll and National Honor Society matter in a learning culture. 

5. Seek contribution over recognition. 

Fill your toolbox with technique, tactics, physicality, and psychology. Study and practice with intent. Fergus Connolly's Game Changer presents a seminar on coaching and player development. 

6. "Look for the helpers." 

Find a mentor; become a mentor. Get help and learn leadership approaches as a player, young, or veteran coach. As an experienced coach, help provide more leadership tools. 

• Leadership scorecard - where did you have a chance to lead and what did you do? 
• Journaling - track your progress.
• Study a breadth of leaders...basketball MasterClasses from Coach K, Gino Auriemma, and Steph Curry. Authors like historian Doris Kearns  Goodwin and leadership authors such as Admiral James Stockdale, Colin Powell, and Simon Sinek. 

It's impossible to know everything, but it's possible to treat people better. 

Lagniappe. Want to eat well with fewer calories? Here's a link to suggestions. 

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Options on Hard to Defend Actions

Have been looking for this action. Coach does an awesome job explaining it. Rifle is an ELITE Spain counter. This will be a play in every D1 playbook within a month. 📝.

— Chris Steed (@csteed) October 31, 2026

Not saying every new 'shiny object' belongs in an offense. But hard-to- defend actions belong. 

Pick-and-roll (top actions)

• Handler drive or shoot (handler defender goes under)
• Hit the roller
• Reject the screen
• Screener slips

Spread (e.g. 5 out)

• Give and go
• Back cut with or without dribble at
• Pass and screen away 
• Pass and staggered off ball screen

Complex screens (from various sets)

• Iverson action 
• Screen-the-screener 
• Spain (backscreen the roller)
• Sequential screens (e.g. corner rip action)

Horns sets

• High ball screen (+/- drive and dish if help off corner)
• Elbow get (post entry with screen across) 
• Duke elbow series

Caveats

Young players usually need 'structure' but not so much that all they do is run sets. 

Urgent cutting and on-time, on-target passing ("nothing works unless you do")

Priorities on shot quality and valuing the ball (turnovers are zero percent possessions)

Lagniappe. Work with people who share character and competence. 

Brad Stevens shares his non-negotiables for life. "I wanna enjoy who I'm working with. I wanna enjoy where I'm working. I wanna have a goal, but I also wanna enjoy the journey of getting to that goal." "For me, it starts with being a great teammate. That is something I look for in people. Those relationships are probably the most important thing." It starts with the people and the character of those people. Then he explained what it means to show up every day: "You put your signature on your work every day. You give it everything you have." "You do it for the good of the whole. You do it to get better at your own job. You do it to improve the whole and see where the chips may fall." It means giving your best effort and bringing a mindset of excellence to yourself and your team. "I've been lucky enough to be on really good teams. Teams that have had chances to play for things that are really, really special." Then he shared what stays with you: "Very rarely when you look back on those teams - whether at Butler or here - do you think about the individual games or even the moments of the games." "You think about the people and the individual times with the people." "That's the special part about being a part of a sports team. That's why you walk through the building every day." The relationships always stay. Stevens' wisdom is simple: it comes down to character. • Be a great teammate. • Strive for excellence. • Enjoy the people and the process. Character isn't what you say - it's what you do consistently. (🎥 Way of Champions) https://t.co/el96GIVFDI

— Coach AJ 🎯 Mental Fitness (@coachajkings) October 29, 2026

 

 

 

 

 

Basketball - NBA Teaching Clips (Not the Celtics)

Watch more video, teach players to watch, give and get feedback.

Dr. Naismith said it best, "Basketball is an easy game to learn and a difficult one to master." 

If analytics matter, play to them. The stunt didn't stop the drive but exposed the open corner three.  

Early switch opens a mismatch but the layup won't go down. Do our players know which techniques will be our primary coverage and where is the protection? Do we show/hedge (Coach K calls it "fake trap"), switch, double, drop, or "ice" (force the ball handler sideline)? Better to have fewer techniques and more clarity...

Here, they double, into a short roll, and short roll pass. One of those 10-15 possessions that Joe Mazzulla says teams want to have over. 

Good offense...high ball screen, draw 2 and pass for a corner three, with "one more" for an open three. Help but no recovery available. 

Screen 'gems'...Sanders uses the handler's defender as a screen and then gets a little help from Lopez to prevent help from contesting. 

Just because it's the NBA doesn't automatically mean "great defense." This is the kind of clip we'd see in high school with the coach saying, "Anybody gonna play defense?" 

Podziemski is considered a better 'help' than individual defender. Hachimura confirms that with a crafty spin move. 

"You gotta keep running." The Clippers sprint in transition and the Warriors were late on this possession. A coach recently told me that his team was playing better for one reason..."I asked them to give me their best effort on every possession and more of them are." 

Get Help from AI in Finding the Right Coach for Your Program

Mr. Rogers said, "Look for the helpers." Artificial intelligence offers an additional resource to help in the selection process.

First, I listed ten questions that might provide insight into a candidate. They're not designed to be "Gotcha" questions. Then, I'll post the ChatGPT Plus prompt and response.

1. What is your philosophy about basketball?
2. Share why this position is interesting or attractive for you.
3. Describe some of your major coaching influences.
4. If you could have lunch with any coach, living or dead, whom would you choose and why?
5. What 'policies' do you follow to communicate with parents? 
6. You are (or are not) a school teacher. Discuss why that should or should not impact your application.
7. Your learn that your best player wants to transfer. How would you approach that conversation? 
8. Share your thoughts on your ideal basketball culture. 
9. What are your thoughts on single versus multisport athletes?
10. What two things do you want to achieve on your first day in the job? 

Prompt: I believe that AI can enhance many aspects of sports organizations. Assessing a coaching applicant's "character and competence" creates a challenge for every 'administration'. You want the program and the candidate be a mutually beneficial fit. Unique challenges exist with every 'job'. Help design a series of ten to twelve questions that require thoughtful answers and will provide data without being seen as "gotcha" types. Practically everything is fair game. I would start with a generic, "Tell us about your basketball philosophy." And I'm not looking for "what type of offense would you run against a box-and-one?" type questions.

Ron, I’d build the interview around what the coach believes, what the coach has actually done, and how the coach learns when those two diverge. Character and competence overlap: honesty about a mistake can reveal both integrity and the ability to improve.

Tell candidates beforehand: “We’re interested in how you think. Specific examples help us understand your experience. You’re welcome to pause, ask for context, or explain what additional information you would need.” That makes this a professional conversation rather than a performance under interrogation.

Here are twelve questions, with the evidence each should help uncover.

1. “Tell us about your basketball philosophy. What would we see in a typical practice, a close game, and your interactions with players that demonstrates that philosophy?”
   Moves from attractive words to observable behavior. Listen for whether the coach’s methods support the stated values.

2. “Describe a team you coached that needed something different from what you initially intended to give it. How did you recognize that, and what did you change?”
   Explores adaptability, listening, and whether the coach serves the players or expects every roster to serve a preferred system.

3. “Tell us about a player you initially misunderstood or underestimated. What changed your assessment, and what did you do afterward?”
   Reveals humility, fairness, and the willingness to revise judgments. A useful follow-up: “How do you give players opportunities to change your mind?”

4. “Choose a player whose development you are proud of. What did the player need, what did you do, and what evidence showed improvement? Who else contributed?”
   Examines teaching competence, assessment, and the ability to share credit. Improvement might involve skill, decisions, confidence, reliability, or belonging.

5. “Tell us about a coaching decision you would handle differently today. What did it cost, how did you address it with those affected, and what changed in your subsequent practice?”
   Tests accountability and learning. The revealing part is the corrective action, not how dramatic the mistake sounds.

6. “Suppose your most productive player repeatedly falls short of a team expectation, while a reserve has been held accountable for the same behavior. Walk us through your response and the information you would need.”
   Explores fairness, judgment, and communication. Strong answers can distinguish consistent principles from identical consequences while explaining the distinction credibly.

7. “A player tells you, ‘I work hard, but I don’t think you believe in me.’ How would you approach that conversation, and what would happen afterward?”
   Reveals whether the coach can listen, deliver difficult feedback, and create a realistic path forward without promising playing time.

8. “Describe a substantive disagreement with an assistant, parent, or administrator. How did you understand the other person’s concern, and how was the disagreement resolved—or left unresolved?”
   Explores conflict management and professional boundaries. Listen for whether the coach can describe another person’s position fairly.

9. “You inherit a program with committed people, uneven results, and differing opinions about what needs to change. What would your first sixty days look like? What would you preserve, investigate, and potentially change?”
   Assesses diagnosis, relationship building, and priorities. A thoughtful candidate should have questions before prescribing solutions.

10. “How would you determine whether this program is succeeding after one season and after three seasons? If the record improved but participation, player trust, or academic engagement declined, how would you interpret that?”
    Makes the candidate define success and confront competing evidence. Listen for measures the coach would actually collect and act upon.

11. “A player brings you a concern about a teammate’s wellbeing or an adult’s conduct and asks you to keep it confidential. How would you respond, explain the limits of confidentiality, and decide whom to involve?”
    Examines judgment, care, and recognition of professional responsibilities. Candidates should be comfortable identifying when they need institutional guidance or expertise.

12. “What would you need from this administration to do your best work? What should we expect from you when those needs cannot all be met—and what should we understand about you before deciding whether this is a good fit?”
    Gives mutual fit equal standing with candidate evaluation. Look for realistic expectations, self-awareness, and the ability to distinguish essential support from preferences.

For most answers, use the same neutral follow-ups: “What did you personally do?” “What happened next?” “How do you know?” and “What would you change?” These produce comparable evidence without turning the interview adversarial.

Score each response independently before the committee discusses it:

Dimension	Evidence to look for
Character	Ownership, fairness, respect, candor
Competence	Clear diagnosis, purposeful action, credible evidence
Learning	Reflection, adjustment, recognition of limits
Fit	Alignment with the actual players, resources, and institutional expectations

AI could help organize the answers, identify unsupported claims, and suggest consistent follow-ups. The committee should judge demonstrated behavior rather than let polished language become a proxy for coaching ability. A useful final check is to ask references for examples connected to the same questions—especially how the candidate responds when challenged, disappointed, or wrong.  

I found the AI questions and rationale insightful. 

Lagniappe. That'll do. 

Coaches (Especially HS coaches just getting under way): I had this on my desk as I prepared every practice daily. How organized would your practice be if you knew one of your mentors or heroes was going to show up that day? https://t.co/WoYueqjTgK

— Fran Fraschilla (@franfraschilla) October 31, 2026

Basketball Rebounding - Nature or Nurture?

As a player, any coach who graded me on rebounding would rightly grade me as "incomplete."

I coached both my daughters who probably averaged double figure rebounding their last two years in high school. "Those who can't do, teach?" 

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I was taught to block out; I blocked out. I taught my twins to get the ball; they got the ball. 

So, what's right? 

There's an argument for:

1) Position and toughness (defensive) 

2) Anticipation and aggressiveness (offensive)

3) Do what works for you. If "hit and get" works, do it. 

The "nature" argument says, "Find rebounders." The nurture side says, "teach rebounding." Absorb Coach Summitt's chart and read Coach Raveling's "War on the Boards." 

Realistically, it's not either-or. Find something that works and stick with it. 

Lagniappe. Give players specifics. 

5 Ways To PROVE You Play Hard: 1. defensive intensity 2. offensive rebounding 3. sprinting in transition 4. winning 50/50 balls 5. next-play mentality after mistakes. Don't just say you play hard—show it! #basketball #playhard https://t.co/cVSq768DVP

— Jeff Huber (@HuberBasketball) January 5, 2026