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Friday, January 9, 2026

Change of Possession

Many coaches embrace the great Pete Newell's advice to get "more and better shots than your opponent." By extension, get "more and better possessions than your opponent."

Shots are subsets of possessions. Ask ourselves two questions:
  • How do possessions end? 
  • How does a new possession relate to the previous one? 
For example, we know that live ball turnovers in aggregate lead to higher points per possession for the new possession. 

In basketball:

  • Live-ball turnovers (e.g., steals, live errant passes) generally lead to more efficient scoring outcomes on the next possession. This is about  ~1.28 points per possession on average (NBA 2018-19) because the defense is out of position and transition can occur.

  • Dead-ball turnovers (out-of-bounds, offensive fouls, ball violations that stop play) often result in lower efficiency possessions, around ~1.08 points per possession.

In the 'higher turnover' environment, e.g. high school, points off high volumes of turnovers, especially live-ball, can be decisive. 

With different types of "conversion" we might expect differing points per possession. Scoring against 'set defenses' is more difficult than scoring when defenses are in crisis (outnumbered) or chaos (scrambling).

"Live ball" conversions other than turnovers:
  • Rebounded perimeter shots (e.g. missed threes)
  • Rebounded interior shots
  • Perimeter steals
  • Blocked shots with change of possession 
"Dead ball" conversions:
  • Made shots and free throws
  • Ball out of bounds
  • Shot clock violations
  • Dead-ball turnovers

Opponent PPP after missed shots isn't higher after missed threes. Conversely, clear transition defense assignment matters:

  • avoid guard misses at the rim with poor floor balance, and

  • define clear offensive rebounding/get-back rules (who rebounds, who sprints to the nail, who protects rim in transition). 

What are your favorite "conversion drills?" We used two:
  • 4-4-4 transition (four on four with a third group off at half court). After a possession, defense converts to offense and the OFF group has to sprint onto the court, talk and matchup. Offense rotates to OFF and defense becomes offense. 
  • "Change." (Knight drill) five on five full court, coach blows the whistle and ball must be dropped and offense and defense reverse. 
Lagniappe. Impact winning (scoreboard) over the scorebook (numbers). 

Lagniappe 2. Be versatile off Zoom (downscreen DHO).  

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