Strong teams find ways to win and lesser teams find ways to lose.
Two possessions...
Via ChatGPT Plus:
"About 31% of NBA regular-season games finish within six points—just under one in three.
That estimate comes from 6,150 games across five full seasons, 2021–22 through 2025–26. About 14.5% finished within three points, and another 16.5% finished with a margin of four, five, or six. Exactly six points accounted for 364 games (5.9%)."
And at the Division I college level?
About 31% of men’s NCAA Division I basketball games finish within six points, roughly one in three and nearly identical to the NBA figure we just discussed. I calculated 31.2% by adding the shares for final margins of one through six points in a published historical sample of about 48,000 college games.
A small number of possessions separate winning from losing at multiple levels.
We know from analytic studies (Four Factors) that key determinants are:
1) Differential effective field goal percentage - "It's a make or miss league"
2) Turnover differential - "Turnovers kill dreams."
3) Rebounding margin - "Get more and better possessions than opponents"
4) Free throw differential - "Fouling negates hustle."
Translate that to "rules" that improve those marginal possessions that decide games.
The "Moneyball Rule"
In Michael Lewis's Moneyball there's a quote, "If he's such a good hitter, why doesn't hit better?" Restate it as "If she's such a good shooter, why doesn't she shoot better?" Don't "greenlight" bad shooters.
"The ball is gold."
Turnovers are zero percent possessions. Do the math. In a high school game where an 'imaginary' team shoots an EFG of 40% (many shoot worse), 20 turnovers on 70 possessions yields 50 potential scoring possessions. 40% of 50 is 20 hoops (40 points). Teams win few games scoring 40 or fewer. Value the ball.
"Winners are trackers." - Darren Hardy in The Compound Effect
"Measure a thousand times but cut only once." - Turkish proverb At a medical conference at National Jewish Hospital in Denver, a University of Colorado professor said, "In God we trust; all others need data." Skeptics thrive amidst a lack of data. Measure what matters.
Be a Charity Case - win at the stripe.
Tom Hellen said, "Teams that can't shoot free throws last as long in the playoffs as dogs that chase cars." Everyone remembers the games lost via missed free throws. Painful memories last forever.
Be on the Same Page
One player doesn't know her assignment. That results in blown coverages, screens not set, help without recovery, bad situational basketball (mismanaged time), and much more. Practice situations each practice. It's a thinking person's game.
Give and Get Feedback
"Trust but verify." - Ronald Reagan One team frustrated its coach by not knowing the offensive sets. He explained that he was giving a test on Monday and if you don't know the plays, you can't start. The players learned the plays. Bobby Knight explained a inbounds play during practice, then handed out pencils and paper expecting players to write it down. Trust but verify. Players know far less than we think.
"Cut hard."
Many offenses fail because players don't cut urgently. I remember watching one team run a UCLA set with a wing pass and the guard cutting off the high post. It NEVER got open as lazy cutting gets no separation.
"There is no 50-50 proposition."
"Get on the floor." Effort is the controllable. Judge a team not only by organization and talent, but how often they outwork opponents.
Help your teammates.
Talk. Help AND recover. Space. Set clean, hard screens. Move without the ball. Never cut to an occupied post. Pass willingly. Sprint back in transition. Teams that don't do all these and more haven't earned the right to win.
Use the 'Truth Machine'
Watch video as a team. Ask "what did you see?" and "how did you react?" CARE = concentrate, anticipate, react, and execute. I don't believe in only showing positives. Read Coach Knight's "The Power of Negative Thinking" because "basketball is a game of mistakes."
Iron Clad Principles
Pete Newell said, "Get more and better shots than opponents." How do you intend to do that?
- All defense starts with ball pressure
- Deny dribble and pass penetration
- Shrink space - load and drop to the level of the ball
- No middle
- Help - cover 1.5, your player and half of another
- Contest shots without fouling "never foul a perimeter shot"
- Block out or "hit and get" the rebound
