We are all subject to 'confirmation bias', the tendency to believe what we already believe, the reinforcement of our current beliefs. This includes the use of analytics, styles of play, preferred players, and our abilities. Couple confirmation bias and overconfidence and we create powerful delusions.
1) Analytics. "They're a waste of time" or "they tell you what you already know."
Team assist-to-turnover ratio.
Three point shots as percentage of total points. Interesting.
They do not preach "3 and 'D'" for nothing.
2. "Kill the company." Some investment experts carry out an exercise called "kill the company" asking what could possibly go wrong. The "Tylenol scandal" didn't take down Johnson & Johnson because they developed a powerful response with recall and repackaging after the cyanide adulteration scandal in 1982.
We can certainly imagine scenarios where teams struggle...OKC would have major issues with a Russell Westbrook injury. D'Angelo Russell's trade possibly wasn't just about Lonzo Ball. The US Olympic figure skating team died in a plane crash in 1961. Very few NFL teams have a Don Strock or Earl Morrall if their franchise quarterback goes down.
3. "What does my team need now?" I had a hard-working but size and talent-limited team last season. The first third of the season we averaged less than 25 points a game. We had to spend too much time on shooting and zone offense to become semi-competitive. We cannot live 'denial' about our or our team's ability.
4. "Don't live in the past." I see coaches who 'force' the system they grew up in as players onto their current team. Legendary Cal Coach Pete Newell remarked this "usually results in a poor reproduction of the original." If we have two or three days (tryouts) for talent evaluation, spending the first day running wind sprints teaches us who has superior conditioning but not so much about basketball skill and acumen.
5. "He's a genius." Phil Jackson is known as a basketball whisperer for his communication skills and "Eleven Rings" while coaching the Bulls and Lakers to championships. Jackson's confirmation bias is the Triangle Offense. He and the Knicks recently divorced as the Triangle sans Michael, Scottie, Kobe, and Shaq couldn't pass muster.
Look for 'disconfirming evidence' about your beliefs. See the "other side of the trade." Many were saying Danny Ainge was an idiot for trading the first draft choice for the third (Jayson Tatum) and future choice and coming up empty in free agency. The Tatum deal looks prescient and the Celtics have two potential lottery picks next year...plus Gordon Hayward.
