Basketball: Apgar and Analytics

Learn across domains. In 1952, Virginia Apgar developed a model to predict outcomes immediately post-birth. "A low Apgar score of 0 to 1 at 1 minute is not predictive of adverse clinical outcomes or long-term health issues since most infants, even those with very low 1-minute scores will have normal scores by 5 minutes. Low Apgar scores at 5 minutes correlate with mortality and may confer an increased risk of cerebral palsy in population studies."

As evaluators, we project potential based on size, athleticism, skill, and intangibles. Everyone seeks 'diamonds in the rough'. 

In The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis profiles behavioral economists Danny Kahneman and Amos Tversky. In relation, he shares Daryl Morey's information that NBA draft success correlates with:

• Age at drafting
• Institution attended (blue-chip programs are better)
• Performance while in college

Extensive experience (e.g. upperclassmen) had a disadvantage relative to young players. And as we've just seen, college stars like 'tweener' Drew Timme got passed over as 'not having an NBA game'. He did sign a make good (Exhibit 10) contract with Milwaukee.

Motivated workers seek algorithms to gain edges. 

• Kahneman and Tversky developed a questionnaire to predict superior army officers for the Israeli Army.
• Joel Greenblatt developed his Magic Formula using Return on Capital and value (Earnings yield, the inverse of price/earnings ratio). 
• Dean Oliver's "Four Factors" helped fuel the analytics revolution. 
• Retailers use 'unique customer identifiers' to send customers personalized advertising circulars to drive sales. 
• Billy Beane's "Moneyball" extended theories from Bill James to determine baseball player value. 
• Elite poker players like Daniel Negreanu know the mathematics of playable hands, but seat position, skill, and luck intersect. 

During tryouts we've been stuck with observation and gut instinct. Is there a better way, a more descriptive, quantitative way to predict potential? It's a question worth asking. 

Work to get the odds on our sides, but realize that even with skill and mathematical advantage, luck matters. 

Lagniappe. 

Let's look at some quick hitters in Chin. The 1st action we'll break down is the Chin - Ricky.

You'll see several options here in these clips. One you won't see is a curl, but that could certainly be open too

1. Open TOK 3
2. Outside PNR
3. Roll
4. Slip#PrincetonOffenseTips pic.twitter.com/CJYYShUEDv

— Andrew Tulowitzky (@CoachTulo) June 28, 2023

Lagniappe 2. "Every day is player development day." Another shooting workout.