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Monday, July 31, 2023

Basketball: A Coach Walks into a Brothel to Study Risk

"Life is about the management of risk." 


Coaching manages risk, more than we know. Learn more about risk management by studying some concepts from Allison Schrager's new book, An Economist Walks into a Brothel. She literally explains the economics of the flesh trade at the Moonlite BunnyRanch versus the illegal industry. Practitioners trade half their income, plus taxes, for safety. Some made as much as $600,000 annually. 

Risk abounds for basketball coaches. Let us count some ways:
  • Career risk. What will this job do to or for my career?
  • Community risk. Think about Hoosiers. Sleepy, tiny town or rabid rural zip code? 
  • Talent risk. Do you have Jimmy and more or a bunch or Ollies?
  • Depth risk. Injuries or illness lurk around the corner.
  • Poaching risk. "They" are coming for "yours."
  • Character risk. Do you have players at risk for the 'dark side'? 
  • Scheduling risk. More cupcakes or more iron? 
  • Practice risk. How do you allocate fundamentals, offense versus defense, education, and so forth? 
  • In-game management risk? Matchup risk, foul trouble, pace of play risk all come into play. 
  • Decision-risk? Going for a steal versus playing safe, choosing a higher percentage shot versus a three. Block or charge? It depends. 
  • Communication risk? Which parent(s) will literally cut your heart out to be sure that Patty plays?
Career risk gets regularly dampened on Wall Street. When everyone owns "XYZ" then you won't get blamed for owning it when the Street learns the CEO is crooked or the CFO has to retire suddenly to spend more time with her family because of discovered 'accounting irregularities' or delay in reporting earnings. Follow a legend at your school and you assume more career risk. 


You take the 'bad job' knowing that the AD has a reputation, coaches get fired quicker than you can say "Jack Robinson," or the youth program coaches have records, as in they're on probation. But like in A Chorus Line, you're singing, "I Need This Job." 
Talent risk shows up in multiple ways. No talent, no depth, "Rez Ball" as in 'lacking discipline', or a dominant competing sport like championship hockey program draining away the best athletes. 
Knowing the risks like "poaching risk" (players spirited away to the privates), character risk (he's more "Booze" than "Cooz"), or scheduling risk (we're playing THEM?) requires soul-searching before signing on. The best available coach walking into the worst possible situation has his hands full. Think of Sheriff Teasle in Rambo. 



Risk appears at myriad moments. Failure to take a timely timeout changes a win to a loss. Playing too fast or too slow a tempo can shrink a lead or prevent a comeback. Poor clock management at the end of a period can lead to six point swings per period. Leaving a shaky ballhandler in for a few possessions against the press turns into layups. Do you foul up three late without the ball? Academic study says you do. 

The first way to manage risk is to understand it, to work to get it on your side, and to appreciate that skill and luck intersect to produce ranges of outcomes. 

Lagniappe. If you had to bet your life on your community team and their coaching hire, whom do you pick? 

Lagniappe 2. Glue and "belt and suspenders" players reduce risk. 

 

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