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Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Fast Five: Size and Length

“The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.” - Hugh Keough (often attributed to Damon Runyan)

Size and length matter. How? 

What is the relationship between height and rebounding? Previous data suggests that height accounts for about half of rebounding efficiency.



The most recent analysis of Pac-12 action confirms the principle (above). 

The average man has a wingspan 2.1 inches longer than height. But NBA athletes dwarf average. The 2014 draft class had a wingspan 4.8 inches longer than their height without shoes. Bill Russell had "only" a 7 foot wingspan while Manute Bol had an 8'6" wingspan. Some say Wilt Chamberlain had a 100 inch wingspan

But height (and associated "wingspan") also impacts finishing near the basket, avoiding blocked shots, and getting deflections and blocking or altering shots. 

Part of the Celtics' ascension this season belongs to defensive switching available because of the length of wings Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Both have seven foot wingspans that allow seamless switching against taller attackers. 

NBA history is littered with players with exceptional wingspans. "Kevin Durant who's wingspan measures 89 inches; Anthony Davis who has a 91 inch wingspan; Kawhi Leanord who has an 87-inch wingspan; Scottie Pippen who had an 87-inch wingspan; Alonzo Mourning who had a wingspan of 90 inches."

Nobody is saying that height and wingspan are sufficient to impact either end of the court, but with other attributes of quickness, aggressiveness, and timing, they change games. 


What has the Celtics' length changed? 

The Celtics have gone from 29th to 2nd in team rebounding percentage. 


Without a traditional shot-blocker, the Celtics lead the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage and opponents' second chance points, and are tenth in fewest points allowed in the paint. 


They are also in the top eight in contested shots and deflections. 

Size and length don't matter without skill and will; but with them, that still is the way to bet .