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Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Basketball Effective Field Goal Percentage: A Method to the Madness

Of the first forty games in the NCAA Men's tournament, thirty-three (82.5%) were won by the team winning the effective field goal percentage (EFG%) battle. The NBA is not the only MAKE OR MISS league

Effective field goal percentage corrects for three-point shot attempts. If you make a high percentage of threes, you have a higher EFG%. 


This extends Dean Oliver's concept (Basketball on Paper) about the value of winning the field goal percentage battle. It's the corollary of Papa John's, Better Ingredients, Better Basketball



EFG% captures most of the best teams in the NBA. 


EFG% also informs many of the NCAA Men's basketball bluebloods. By comparison, the UCONN women have an EFG% of 59.6% , the Baylor Bears are 54.5%, Notre Dame is 54.3, and Mississippi State is 52.8%. 



Statistics further breakdown by type of play. For example, Portland has scored the most points via pick-and-roll offense (above). Teams analyze how they are scoring most efficiently and where they struggle offensively and defensively.  



For example, Denver leads the league defensively in allowing fewest points on points per possession against the cut. 



The Celtics don't appear among the team EFG% leaders, but they are the leader in opponents' EFG% (above). The Eastern Conference leading Raptors appear high on both lists as do the NBA title defending Warriors. 



The Celtics also lead the league in lowest 3-point percentage allowed. 

NBA analytics staff breaks down scoring (and defensive efficiency) in numerous ways, varying from 3-point percentage, EFG%, transition points, points in the paint, scoring versus pick-and-roll, via cutting, etc. 



On an individual basis it identifies big men who shoot high percentages near the basket and other players who score efficiently inside or out. The less familiar names within the group probably deserve more attention. 

For our (younger) players, EFG% still matters, but they derive higher EFG% by improving shot quality, shooting ability, and passing to create easier shots

Defensively, our goal is lowering the opposition EFG%. At higher levels of basketball, reducing three-point shooting percentage is key while at lower levels, challenging shots, "rim protection", and reducing putbacks and transition baskets are critical. 

Educate players SPECIFICALLY about EFG% and the means to increase it offensively and decrease it defensively. It's the first driver of success.