We're wired to think in stereotypical ways. Thinking well takes effort. Errors literally take no time at all.
Understand biases and use mental models makes better decisions. The brief video above launches us into today's discussion.
Hanlon's Razor. We need not attribute to malice what we can explain by stupidity (or an innocent mistake). Long ago, my wife felt one of our twins wiping her hands on her skirt. "Don't wipe your hands on my skirt." The twin replied, "I didn't. It was my nose."
First Conclusion Bias. Quicker isn't always better. We have parallel brain processing to solve problems, a back-of-the-envelope (Reflexive, X-system, System 1) mechanism and a slow processor (Reflective, C-system, System 2). Detailed strategies require Reflective thinking. Larry Fine's quick thinking fails spectacularly in the video. But we don't reflect upon whether to jump away from an onrushing car.
Stress. Pressure degrades performance. The 1999 shooting of Amadou Diallo has been attributed to 'mind blindness'. In Extreme Ownership, Jocko Willink discusses combat errors under stress including friendly fire. I've shared Chris Webber's 1993 timeout mistake as pressure-related. I highly recommend the book Performing Under Pressure.
Fragility or robustness? A system or organism lives or dies according to its fragility or robustness in a given ecosystem. "Adequate" defense or rebounding can prove inadequate against another team's rebounders. Local basketball guru Tom Hellen says, "A team that cannot shoot free throws lasts as long in the post-season as a dog that chases cars." Construct teams for robustness in many different milieus.
Lagniappe:
ATOs from the ATL. Many were designed to free Kyle Korver for threes.
