Change is inevitable. And immutable forces prompt change.
The "change cycle" has at least three parts:
- Recognition (see the change)
- Acceptance (yes, it's real)
- Manage the change (be flexible and adapt)
The magnificent book, Empire of the Summer Moon, described technology changing the United States. The Comanches rose with mastery of technology, the horse. And they declined when their fighting superiority yielded to new technology, guns with repeating firing (Samuel Colt).
Transportation changed from horse and buggy to automobile. Power generation evolves from coal and other fossil fuels to renewables (wind, solar, geothermal). Football changed with the forward pass dominance. Sexist baseball knew "chicks dig the long ball." And the three point shot and analytics changed basketball.
Change represents disruptive technology or approaches. Can we forecast disruptive technology for basketball?
What underpins basketball change?
1. Rules change
2. Coaching change
3. Player changes
4. Strategy changes
Rules changes on hand checking open up the game. With the growth of international basketball, I expect eventual convergence on NBA and international rules and moving the collegiate three-point line out.
Just as men coach girls and women, women can coach boys and men. There's value in diversity, as long as the coaches are knowledgeable and committed. How do we define "dues paid?" I don't know. More international coaching and women will represent disruptive change. Youth sports should emphasize development over winning, which is not to say winning doesn't matter.
Players constantly improve in many areas, but more attention belongs on basketball IQ and game understanding. We learned the game on the playground and societal changes (beginning with Adam Walsh) changed how kids learn sports.
As the primacy of three-point shooting continues to evolve, more opportunities will arise for pass-and-cut basketball with high points-per-possession chances.
Rules changes on hand checking open up the game. With the growth of international basketball, I expect eventual convergence on NBA and international rules and moving the collegiate three-point line out.
Just as men coach girls and women, women can coach boys and men. There's value in diversity, as long as the coaches are knowledgeable and committed. How do we define "dues paid?" I don't know. More international coaching and women will represent disruptive change. Youth sports should emphasize development over winning, which is not to say winning doesn't matter.
Players constantly improve in many areas, but more attention belongs on basketball IQ and game understanding. We learned the game on the playground and societal changes (beginning with Adam Walsh) changed how kids learn sports.
As the primacy of three-point shooting continues to evolve, more opportunities will arise for pass-and-cut basketball with high points-per-possession chances.
Lagniappe: What characterizes improvement?
Lagniappe 2: Meaning well is just a route to doing well.
Knowing is not enough; we must apply.
Willing is not enough; we must do.
- Goethe
