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Sunday, May 16, 2021

Basketball: Coaching Regrets , "But I Won't Do That," "If I Ruled the World" and Lagniappe Worth Study


What are the coaching "Thats" you won't do? What are the "Don't Do What I Did" errors and opportunities? 

1. I won't pick thirteen players again. We had twelve "returners" and a new player tried out who belonged in the top half. It exacerbated the minutes crunch in games. It was reminiscent of post-War Iraq and Imperial Life in the Emerald City. People who little electricity got some but were unhappy and those who had a lot had theirs reduced, making them unhappy. When we cut more slices in the pie, the results are obvious and unsatisfying. 

2. I won't play zone defense as the PRIMARY defense for youth basketball. In the "if I ruled the world" game, I'd limit the amount of zone defense allowable per game (maybe the last four minutes of each half). Who died and made you king? 

3. I still won't teach the Euro Step. I have irrational fears about causing a knee injury, especially for girls.

4. Discourage release of individual statistics. They always show that everyone isn't equal in role or effectiveness, which everyone knows anyway. Trending TEAM statistics has value (field goal percentage and turnovers). Those "end of possession" stats reflect the good, the bad, and the ugly.

5. Don't expect consistency from young players. That exceeds a fool's errand; it's just foolish. Emerson said, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." 

6. "Control what you can control." Often, the top teams carry fewer players (e.g. eight) creating advantage that can't be overcome (except unfair playing time). Fewer players getting more opportunity and coaching will outperform the opposite. Worry about our own team. Remember Ted Lasso's quote: 

“For me, success is not about the wins and losses. It’s about helping these young fellas be the best versions of themselves on and off the field.”


7. Rule 1. "Prioritize player development." Rule 2. Never forget Rule 1. The ability to make teammates better and to finish possessions defines excellence. 

8. "Don't sweat the officiating." In the last fifty games I coached, the officials didn't decide one. They didn't take bad shots, throw the ball away, miss layups or free throws, lose defensive focus, or fail to get back in transition. Las Vegas doesn't set lines on middle school games. And if they did, betting them would rank among the worst decisions ever. 

9. Stay positive. Don't bring Misery to practice. Don't bring Misery to games. Don't send Misery home with your families.


 
10. "Never be a child's last coach." What does it feel like to play for me?

Summary:
  • Don't expect consistency from young players. 
  • "Control what you can control."
  • Prioritize player development.
  • Don't sweat the officiating. 
  • Stay frosty.
  • What does it feel like to play for me? 
  • Powerful lagniappe from Nobel Laureate Danny Kahneman
Lagniappe. Hanlen. Knows. Shiftiness.
 

Lagniappe 2. Not for everyone, Barry Ritholtz interviews Nobel Prize winner Professor Danny Kahneman discussing noise, which is interference causing poor decision-making across domains. It could apply to business, justice, finance, medicine, and others. For example, the recent attempt to "gentrify" the Premier League exploded. 

He noted that insurance companies expected to have about a 10% underwriting 
difference, but the actual results were 55%. Errors do not cancel but are additive. Judges giving excessive sentences to one defendant and too light to another do not cancel out. 

When the first person to speak is the CEO, agreement doesn't reduce noise, it just approves the thoughts of the director...amplifying noise. "Most of us think we are right" that Professor Kahneman calls that naive realism. "Agreeing with ourself" doesn't get closer to truth. Our snap judgments raise our confidence but not accuracy. "Many professionals act with minimal feedback." 

We see that might apply to personnel decisions, coaching decisions, usage rates, salary cap, and so on. Making the wrong decision choosing a coach, or a player (e.g. Jacoby Ellsbury, Kemba Walker and injury) can impact teams for years. 

Not discussed in the article are foreign policy decisions that lead to "permanent" warfare like Vietnam and Afghanistan. 

"One would imagine that the insurance company that could reduce noise would have a competitive advantage." - Barry Ritholtz

"We found noise wherever we looked for it." Judges assess different types of crime differently and assess harsher sentences on hot days or if their football team lost last week. 

Rules are like computations. Standards do not add clarity. Danny says that it's more interesting to study the flaws of intuition not the marvels. 

"Conduct a noise audit." Give different people in an organization the same problem and see how they develop answers.