Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Basketball: Adopt the Professionalism of All Sports

What is professionalism? Professionalism consistently applies timely, efficient, detail-oriented approaches. Show up on time, ready to go, physically and mentally prepared. Be stretched out when practice starts and have total mental focus.  

1. Consider lessons from Gridiron Genius

"Champions behave like champions before they’re champions." —BILL WALSH 

As a young player or young coach, develop "professionalism" or something less leaves us short of our best version. Professionals are on time, "off book" and thoroughly prepared. If a player doesn't know her job, how can she do it?

"Moss displayed another Belichick staple: mental toughness, which the Patriots define as “doing what is best for the team when it might not be best for you.” In New England, Moss was a “program guy”: someone who works hard, is a supportive teammate, and cares deeply about winning. In other words, someone with football character.

2. Analyze a player using the Selection Process of Ed Smith

Physical makeup. It's not only about skill, size, and athleticism, but health history and durability. 

Psychological makeup. Can we look under the hood and examine the player's character, commitment, 'heart', and resilience? 

Performance. Smith reminds us of the difference between academics - those who often design by 'concepts' and the man in the street - who frames choices by experience. 

The Decision. Is our goal consensus, compromise, or getting the absolute best outcome? 

3. Professionals are different. 

Pete Newell said, "teach players to SEE THE GAME." 

Phil Jackson taught, "Basketball is sharing."

Bob Knight advised, "Basketball is a game of mistakes." His warning was to reduce them. 

Dean Smith's primary lesson was CARING. 

Bill Walsh coached to his "standards of performance." 

4. Leadership It takes many elements to win

Leadership. Leadership adds value to not just 'the game' but the lives of the individuals. Leaders get buy-in. Buy-in creates loyalty and starts the 'chain of belief', so well-developed in Ted Lasso. 

5. Develop great habits. Preparation is habit forming. Hard work is habit forming. Winning is habit forming. 

Grow our habits. "We make our habits and our habits make us." Habits can be pleasurable - a walk, a workout, reading, mindfulness, writing. Attitude is habit. I read a suggestion to put an elastic on our wrist and switch to the opposite wrist every complaint. That makes complaining obvious. One of James Clear's signs to change habits is "make it obvious." Change the elastic a few times in an hour and grievance is real.

Lagniappe. Create advantage. 

Lagniappe 2. Create multiple options to find edges.  

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Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Basketball: Tips That Win

Kevin Eastman is a guy who's often, "the smartest guy in the room." He's a former NBA coach and executive, an author, and a speaker. He reads two hours a day.

First, a tip from him: 

1) This belongs under the framework of "movement kills defenses."

2) Use symmetry to create advantage. For example, "spacing is offense." The corollary is on defense, "shrink space" by loading to the ball. 

3) Become more efficient. Run practice at a higher tempo. Name regular drills. Move from action to action faster. Watch video at a higher speed, e.g. 1.25 to 1.5x normal. 

4) Read every day. Fiction, non-fiction, basketball, not basketball. Author Matt Haig says "every story is about somebody searching for something." Isn't that what every coach and player does? 

5) Win the 'special situations' battle. Practice situational basketball with three possession games, time and score, starting with a BOB, SLOB, ATO, or free throw. We called that 15 minute scrimmage time, "specials" and we out-executed teams when we were fortunate to be 'close and late'. 

These practice activities didn't make us a 'championship team' in middle school. They did help develop two D1 players (over six years), who played in three state championship games (not for our local team). 

6) "Never be a child's last coach." Coach everyone. Respect everyone. Think B+ (be positive). 

7) Be Helen Mirren. Asked what was necessary to become successful, she answered, "Always be on time. Don't be an a*hole." 

8) Contain the ball. Find or develop players who apply ball pressure to prevent dribble or pass penetration without fouling. Failure to do so results in "draw 2" situations, help and rotation, and inevitably to open shots. 

Lagniappe. Choose to complain about BBIQ or do something about BBIQ. 

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Monday, July 29, 2024

Basketball: Aggregating Wisdom

Post by @adamgrant
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Grab wisdom whenever possible. Wisdom aggregates 'marginal gains' over a lifetime. Part of coaches' responsibility is redistributing lessons. 

A Twitter post informed an abundance of wisdom...and was deleted. I grabbed a screenshot and share a few excerpts. I don't know why the author chose to delete it, so won't share its entirety.  

  • "Pretend everyone was sent to teach you something." 
  • "The best networking strategy is a helping others first strategy."
  • "Normalize 'I don't know anything about that yet' as a successful answer. 
A young man recently informed me about Cervantes' novellas, "The Exemplary Novels" (1590-1612) which explore a variety of themes about human nature. "The Dialogue of the Dogs" predicts Jon Gordon's book, "The Positive Dog" about the relationship between two dogs and the value of positivity. 

Basketball teaches many character lessons. Defeat teaches humility. Struggles teach patience. Teamwork teaches sacrifice. 

The most arrogant among us see themselves at the center of the universe. Help ourselves by helping others first. Remember how Hugh Jackman sings in The Greatest Showman, "From now on, these eyes will not be blinded by the lights." 

Ignorance is opportunity. Imagine the proverbial Golden Goose of knowledge from which we might harvest daily insights. Arrogance slays that goose. Be open to learning. 

Lagniappe. Possession analysis. Where did the edge arise? 

Lagniappe 2. "Basketball is a game of separation." Separation is acceleration and deceleration. 

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Sunday, July 28, 2024

Basketball: What Are You Prepared to Do?

 


Post by @adamgrant
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As a former coach, I'm prouder of the people former players became over their athletic resume. The person matters more than the player. 

The great young women that came through the program did so because of their and families' commitment and sacrifice, exponentially more than any coaching. They embraced, "whatever it takes."

I won't name names because that discredits so many in favor of the few. 

Winners do more. Here's the Anson Dorrance quote (again) about Mia Hamm, working out, alone, unnoticed. 


Lagniappe. Are you prepared to scratch and claw?

Lagniappe 2. 

Lagniappe 3. Top shooters seldom miss left and right. 

Lagniappe 4. I have a lot of 'dumb' sayings like, "bigs away come back in to play."  

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Saturday, July 27, 2024

Basketball: What Does Attention to Detail Mean to You?

If we ask players what attention to detail means to them, what would their answers reveal? Ask in the context of skill, strategy, physicality, and psychology/resilience. 

Skill. Good players take good shots (in range, open, balanced) and have higher shooting percentages/effective shooting percentage. 

Take care of the basketball. Whether through bad decisions such as driving or passing into traffic, or poor execution, ball security is another Four Factors winning detail.   

Strategy. Plan your trade. Trade your plan. How are we defending the PnR? Everyone needs to be on the same page with the plan and be able to execute it. 

Regarding offensive rebounding, are we sending two or three to the boards? Is that dependent on the opposition or 'we do what we do?' How has that impacted transition defense?

Physicality. Have a plan to maintain conditioning during the season and to grow strength and conditioning during the offseason. 

"Be a tracker." Mental fatigue can show up with hand dynamometry. You can track aerobic fitness with twelve-minute treadmill runs for distance. If you're a "stay ready" player not getting regular playing time, you need to maintain conditioning for when opportunity arises. 

Physicality includes sleep, hydration, nutrition, and recovery. 

Psychology. Staying mentally engaged can challenge both fatigued regulars and rested reserves. Mindfulness via apps or free websites offer a reliable way to reduce stress, improve attention, and sleep better. 

Another habit to engage is visualization/imagery. Jason Selk's advises creating a mental "highlight reel" regularly replayed in your mind. 

Attention to detail has other meanings, too. 

  • Punctuality. 
  • Never being a distraction. 
  • Coachability. 
  • Academic excellence.
  • Self-care. Sleep, nutrition, hydration, recovery...

Lagniappe. 

Lagniappe 2.  

Lagniappe 3. Contested threes yield fewer hoops.  

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Friday, July 26, 2024

Basketball: Old School, New School


Some coaches align along "old school" and "new age" approaches. Tolstoy's quote from over a century ago reminds us that this is not a new phenomenon.

Consider the Celtics, newly-minted NBA champions. Pete Newell's quote about getting "more and better shots than our opponents" might revise to having "higher offensive and defensive rating than our opponents." The Celtics ranked first in offensive rating, second in defensive rating, and first in net rating.

Identify what amounts to 'good possessions' on offense and defense for our team, with our players. It's fine to worship at the altar of long-range shooting...IF we have players who make them. Many high school teams become seduced by three-point shooting without the requisite skill.

When my preference (e.g. playing fast and using multiple defenses) is contradicted by the skill and experience of our players, should we stubbornly adhere to philosophy or play a style that caters to our players' skill and basketball IQ? 

In a developmental setting, should most of practice build skill or more time with team offense and team defense? Some combination is right, but an emphasis on winning now versus long-term growth robs players and future coaches. Why?

Lagniappe. Getting more shots in an efficient workout always has value. 

Lagniappe 2. Impact the game. 

 Lagniappe 3. Separate and finish. 

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Thursday, July 25, 2024

Basketball: Reality Check on Fixable Negatives and Sustainable Positives


It's easy to go overboard with praise after a team wins a title. Understanding the 'why' adds more value.

Obviously, exceptional talent, executing with effort, and playing unselfishly craft success.

Take a granular, local view of our teams and why they succeeded or didn't. Rather than an exhaustive 'laundry list' of factors, simplify to generalize. I'll list three negatives and positives that regularly decide performance and outcomes:

Negatives

1) Transition defense. Bad transition defense gives opponents easy shots, translating to scores and momentum. "Be good at what you do a lot." Every team defends in transition a lot. If a team is poor at transition defense it could reflect poor organization, poor effort, poor awareness, poor coaching or combinations. 

2) Live ball turnovers. Live ball turnovers translate into high points per possession for opponents. I don't care if you coach twelve year-olds or professionals, "turnovers kill dreams" and live ball turnovers are knives directed at the heart of your team. The US Olympic team has not taken enough care of the ball during their exhibition schedule. 

3) Ball containment. If we can't contain the ball, it forces help with "draw 2" situations, drive and kick, or scramble situations which create advantages for opponents. Athleticism doesn't equate to ball containment, although it helps. Your on-ball defenders need that "dog" mentality which is far easier said than done. Somebody tells me a young player is "great" and they can't defend a statue? They're not as great as some think. There's no DH in basketball. As Bob Knight says, "everybody plays defense." 

Positives

1) Player and ball movement. "Movement kills defenses." Movement creates separation and per Pete Carril, "the quality of the pass relates to the quality of the shot." Also, "the ball has energy." Although it doesn't directly appear in the "Four Factors," passing and cutting show up in better effective field goal percentage. Watch a high school game and see a team with four assists total. You don't have to ask who won. Get more assists. 

2) Shot selection. Get more and better shots from your best shooters. Don't watch a player shoot eight threes in a half, with her coach father yelling, "nothing but net." Half are airballs. None score. Rein that 'stuff' in. The quickest path to improvement is better shot selection. A high percentage of "shot turnovers" means coaches are allowing bad shooters to take bad shots. 

3) Free throws. Free throws are one of the "Four Factors;" make these high EFG% shots. Tom Hellen said, "a team that can't shoot free throws lasts as long in the playoffs as dogs that chase cars." Make more. 

The "Pareto Principle" (also known as the 80/20 rule, the law of the vital few and the principle of factor sparsity[) states that for many outcomes, roughly 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes. - Wikipedia

Pay attention to detail for these vital principles. 

Lagniappe. Sleep better, play better. 

Lagniappe 2. Better writing means better communication. Teach more than basketball. Gary Provost's book on writing adds value by sharing how everyone can write better. 

Lagniappe 3. Not practical for young players with too many hoops and too much space. But a tester... 

 

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Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Basketball and Servant Leadership

Coaches have a chance to share holistic education. Let players know, "it's about the team and each of you." Robert Greenleaf developed the philosophy of "servant leadership." It embodies principles of serving others and your community. 

First, a ChatGPT summary: 

Servant leadership is a leadership philosophy and style that emphasizes the leader's primary role as a servant to their team or organization. In contrast to traditional leadership models where the leader's main focus is the accumulation of power and control, servant leadership prioritizes the growth and well-being of others.

Here are some key characteristics and principles of servant leadership:

  1. Service Orientation: The leader's primary motivation is to serve others, including team members, colleagues, customers, and the community at large.

  2. Empathy: Servant leaders strive to understand and empathize with others. They listen actively and seek to understand the needs and perspectives of those they serve.

  3. Healing: Servant leaders are concerned with the personal development and well-being of their followers. They support their emotional and personal growth.

  4. Awareness: They possess a strong awareness of the context and environment in which they operate. This includes understanding their own strengths and weaknesses, as well as the needs of their team and organization.

  5. Persuasion: Rather than relying on authority or coercion, servant leaders seek to persuade others. They build consensus and encourage collaboration.

  6. Conceptualization: Servant leaders have a clear vision for their organization's goals and mission. They are able to think beyond day-to-day tasks and focus on long-term objectives.

  7. Foresight: They anticipate future trends and consequences, helping to prepare their organization for the challenges and opportunities ahead.

  8. Stewardship: Servant leaders view themselves as stewards of their organization's resources and talents. They take responsibility for the well-being of their team and the wider community.

  9. Commitment to the Growth of People: They believe in the inherent value of each individual and are committed to helping people grow and develop.

  10. Building Community: Servant leaders foster a sense of community within their organization. They promote cooperation, trust, and teamwork.

The concept of servant leadership was popularized by Robert K. Greenleaf in the 1970s. It's often seen as a more ethical and people-centered approach to leadership, focusing on serving the needs of others as a pathway to achieving organizational success and personal fulfillment.

Servant leadership doesn't reject ambition. It advances the notion that the well-being of the community comes first. Done well, that leaves ample room for personal growth. 

 Pay it forward. Often young people have received mentoring and support that "cleared the path" for their success. Do the same for others. 
Lagniappe: Kirk Goldsberry... 

 Analytics aren't about "Revenge of the Nerds." For me, analytics provide another domain of tools for improvement. Excellence is measurable. Rules changes redefine the game.


Lagniappe 2. In a recent Managing Director conference, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon fielded questions, including this one from my daughter, "How do you use AI in your daily work?" It's worth considering. Dimon answered that he uses it to help with preparation of reports and lectures. 

Lagniappe 3. Something to consider if you have 'adequate' practice time. 
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Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Basketball: Regret

“We must all suffer from one of two pains: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret. The difference is discipline weighs ounces while regret weighs tons.”

― Jim Rohn

First, an elaboration of Jim Rohn's famous quote. 

From Brave AI: According to Jim Rohn, we all suffer from one of two types of pain: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret. The key difference lies in their weight and duration.

The Pain of Regret

  • Weighs tons: Regrets are monumentally heavy and linger, often manifesting as “what ifs” when looking back on past decisions or missed opportunities.
  • Burdensome: Regret can become a crushing weight, sticking with us for years to come.
  • Unpredictable: Regret can strike at any moment, often unexpectedly, and can be devastating.

The Pain of Discipline

  • Weighs ounces: Discipline, though initially uncomfortable, is a series of small, manageable pains that disappear quickly.
  • Fleeting: The pain of discipline is temporary and short-lived, allowing us to move forward with confidence.
  • Predictable: Discipline is a conscious choice, allowing us to anticipate and prepare for the temporary discomfort.

Who among us has not said, "if only?" Choose to control our words, our actions, and our thoughts. Our if onlys serve our ego as shields against reality. 

"If only I had trained harder..."

"If only I had studied harder..." 

"If only we had paid more attention to detail..."

Discipline defines destiny. Player development is discipline. Film study demands discipline. Sportsmanship requires discipline. Never have we regretted "sweating the small stuff." You know the term for it, "sweat equity."

John Wooden said, "no regrets if you can answer to yourself." 

Regret wastes energy that investment in yourself doesn't. Regret doesn't make us train harder or work smarter, discipline does. 

"I wish I had done that..." 

Regret negatively reaffirms disappointment and failure. Conversely, adopting Miguel Ruiz's fourth agreement, "Always do your best," sees that our best won't always be the best or even our best. Our humanity results in uneven performance and outcomes even with maximum effort. And giving our best frees us from the pain of regret. 

Lagniappe. Discipline. 


Lagniappe 2. Separate work from belief. 

Lagniappe 3. Want a weekly basketball and leadership newsletter? Send a line to Brookkohlheim@gmail.com

Lagniappe 4. Cross-screen, elevator screen, hammer action.   





 

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Monday, July 22, 2024

Basketball - A Website for All of Us (Character Lab)

Closely held beliefs:

1) Learn every day.

2) "Share something great." That could be a book, show, quote, recipe, whatever.

3) Bring our best version of ourself every day. 

A great website keeps on giving with new and valuable content.

Go to Character Lab here. Unfortunately, it is a legacy site but has a lot of great content. 

For example, here's a piece dedicated to making better judgments. 

Excerpt:

What’s the easiest way to help young people develop better judgment?

I think it’s useful to get kids to not just look for reasons why their idea is right. Push them to think about evidence for alternatives or reasons why their idea might be wrong. Help them think about questions such as Am I thinking about all the information available? What would suggest that this idea is wrong? Is there information that would refute the idea that I’m testing?

Restated, look for disconfirming evidence. What could disprove your theory? 

What does this have to do with basketball? Basketball tests our vision, decisions, and execution. If any one of these elements fails, we fail. The authors reinforce the point that decision-making is trainable. 

Character in basketball thoughts:

"Character is job one." - Etorre Messina

"Sports doesn't build character, it reveals it." - Heywood Hale Broun

Here's a brief AI take on Character in basketball:

In the world of basketball, character is a crucial aspect that sets apart exceptional players from the rest. Character refers to the intangible qualities that define a player’s personality, work ethic, and behavior on and off the court. Here are some key characteristics of a high-character basketball player:

  • Coachability: The ability to take constructive criticism and feedback from coaches and teammates.
  • Confidence: Believing in one’s abilities and being confident in game situations.
  • Mental Toughness: The ability to stay focused and composed under pressure.
  • Teamwork: Understanding the importance of teamwork and being willing to put the team’s needs before personal goals.
  • Humility: Recognizing one’s limitations and being open to learning and growth.
  • Discipline: Demonstrating self-control and discipline in all aspects of life, including training, practice, and games.
  • Resilience: Bouncing back from setbacks and failures, and maintaining a positive attitude.
Lagniappe. Ignore players from other eras at our loss. 

Lagniappe 2. Be different.  

Lagniappe 3. "Drive for show and putt for dough." Dags on finishing...sport rewards possession enders.  

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Sunday, July 21, 2024

Basketball: What Are Some "No Help" Rules?

Coaches teach "help and recover" defense or "Cover 1.5" with emphasis on "the ball scores." For some players, that fails or disadvantages defense. When? 

Think of situations where help hurts. 

Double teams resulting in short roll passing to corner threes or corner cuts. 


Help off corner three. This occurs in many situations including help on the high ball screen or off short roll passing. 

Help for strong post defenders. Too much help creates numerical edges away from the post. 

Doubling the elite passer leading to lobs (the Celtics largely removed lobs and corner threes for Dallas by not doubling Doncic and Irving). 

Strong drivers can 'draw 2' at any time leaving someone open. Teams decide which poison to take. Old suggestions:

PROBLEM: How can we allow fewer points? Obviously this will vary by team. 
  • Turn the ball over less (turnovers bleed into points)
  • Contain the ball better (decrease the need for help)
  • Defend the three better (do not help off corner threes)
  • Stop committing bad fouls. ("Show your hands.")
  • Revisit transition defense. ("What are we doing?" Review assignments.)
Lagniappe. Mismatch hunting, moving rim protection away, and opportunistic passing explain why the Celtics got Banner 18. 


Lagniappe 2. Underutilized options on screens: 
  • Rejecting the screen
  • Slipping the screen 
  • Ghosting the screen
Lagniappe 3. Choosing greatness? 
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Saturday, July 20, 2024

Basketball: Offensive Actions Introduced in Middle School

Reconcile the split between "less is more" and introducing actions that will play later.

First a few absolutes:

  • Skill comes first. "We can't run what we can't run."
  • Cut hard. Separate and finish. 
  • On time, on target passing... 
  • Take care of the basketball. Turnovers are zero percent possessions.
  • Take quality shots. Bilas: "It's not your shot, it's our shot."
1) Pick-and-roll. Become a PnR player, learning the skills of both the handler and the screener. Learn the nuances - reject the screen, rescreen, slip, and more. 

2) Off-ball screening. For example, pass and screen away and zipper cuts off down screens, especially to inbound the SLOB. 

3) Complex screening

  • Stagger (including Iverson)
  • Sequential (e.g. corner rip) - below
  • Screen-the-screener
  • Backscreen the roller (Spain)


4) Back door cutting including variations like "blind pig."

5) Open gaps, exploit gaps "win in space." Parents tell us "don't play in the traffic" for good reason.
 

Teaching young players ways to create and exploit space gives them an edge as they matriculate to the next level. 

Lagniappe. "Nobody can stop principles." 

Lagniappe 2. Find ways to "work smarter, not harder."  Pick a few that will work for you. 

Post by @fluent.in.finance
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Friday, July 19, 2024

Basketball: The Art of Possibility

Learn every day. Teach as much as possible. The Art of Possibility by Rosamund and Benjamin Zander offers practical advice on navigating the world. It's not necessarily a 'cover-to-cover' book, but one to pick up anywhere for bits of inspiration.

1) Amidst the sound and the fury around us, "Remember Rule Number 6...Rule Number 6 is, 'Don't take yourself so g--damn seriously.' "Ah," says his visitor, "that is a fine rule. And what, may I ask, are the others?" "There aren't any." 

Many here have accomplished much more than I. So it's easy to be humble. Ego causes angst, envy, and error. Reining ego in can simplify our lives. Contained ego doesn't mean thinking less of ourself, just less about ourself. 

2) "The practice of being with the way things are allows us to alight in a place of openness, where "the truth" readies us for the next step, and the sky opens up." 

Everyone sees what we want to see. Seeing what is actually there demands a lot higher skill level. Build skills. "We can't run what we can't run."

3) "Yet in the music business, as in all walks of life, a leader who feels he is superior is likely to suppress the voices of the very people on whom he must rely to deliver his vision alive and kicking." 

Steve Kerr listened to videographer Nick U'ren and went small with Andre Iguodala to beat the Cavaliers. Colonel Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain's heroics at Little Round Top helped win the Battle of Gettysburg. The little known Bowdoin Professor earned the Congressional Medal of Honor. 

Lagniappe. Develop your handle. 

Lagniappe 2. Get stronger. 

Lagniappe 3. Bad teams don't contain the ball. 

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Thursday, July 18, 2024

Basketball: Advice for Your Middle School Summer

To become a player requires exceptional commitment, continual ascension, and periodic frustration. Ideas for development:

1) Build skill. Become your own coach learning to separate with and without the ball. "Basketball is a game of separation and finishing."

Face the basket at the elbow, choosing your left as pivot foot. Close your eyes. Rip through and get as much separation as possible with a one dribble pickup. Become used to NOT seeing the ball.

2) Play one-on-one. Work on your separation moves off the catch, off the dribble, developing a jab series. Playing "on air" (no defender) gets you only so far.

3) Grow basketball IQ. Read. Study games. Study video, including coaching clinics and player development video (e.g. Drew Hanlen, Chris Brickley, Don Kelbick and others). 

4) Small-sided games. More touches and lots of decision-making. 

5) Get in shape. However hard you think you are working, it's a lot less hard than you think it is. 

6) Find a mentor. Be humble and coachable.

7) Care for 'the machine'. Hydrate, eat right with plenty of protein, fruits, and vegetables. Get eight hours of sleep nightly.

8) Study great players and coaches, including your mentor's mentors. That meant learning as much as possible about Dean Smith and John Wooden.

9) Bring your best self every day at home, school or work, and extra-curriculars. 

10) Be curious. Ask yourself, "what do I not know?" Choose topics - there are thousands - like pick-and-roll offense and defense, "negative step," or "the Four Factors" and study. Then challenge yourself to write down what you know on a sheet of paper.

You're probably saying, "this is a lot of work." Maybe this isn't the right game for you... 

Lagniappe. Become more. 

Lagniappe 2. What's you 'default' individual defense? 

Lagniappe 3. Coaches like Xs and Os. They help good players to separate and finish.  

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Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Basketball: Sample Size

Make sure we've seen enough to make a rational judgment. Win over critics with competence and competitiveness. 

"Show out." Decision-making involves mental models (how we think) and cognitive biases (conscious and unconscious influences). Sample size is a mental model that takes the volume of observations into account. If we flip a coin five times and get consecutive heads, the likelihood of heads on the next flip is still 50 percent. With 50% to the fifth power, we have a 1/32 chance of getting five consecutive heads. With more observations, we know the answers will converge on 50 percent. With a single observation we can overrate or dismiss an athlete.

In coaching and other evaluation, we have 'analytics' and the 'eyeball test'. For example, in the NBA draft, the best predictors of NBA success are age at drafting, college attended, and basketball performance. Young players at the "blue chip" programs who perform well (e.g. Jayson Tatum) are more likely to succeed. 

Coaches have biases in projection, too. That could include size, athleticism measures (e.g. vertical jump or 20-yard shuttle), or knowing the player's previous coach. We may "anchor" on a player seeing them as 'comparable' to another we've seen. 

Coaches also have 'idiosyncratic' (personal) bias. UCONN women's basketball coach Geno Auriemma tells assistants that they should be able to identify the prospect being scouted within a few minutes. Dominate early or not at all. 

Also, "coaches eyes" are not the same as those of "friends and family." Coaches assess "athletic explosiveness," "sport-specific IQ," and "compete level" more objectively. 

Evaluators make projections and can deceive. Red Auerbach went to scout Dave Cowens and walked out "disgusted" before halftime. Auerbach wanted to throw the competition off the scent. Cowens was his top draft choice. 

Successful programs want sustainable competitive advantage and that usually means detailed and multiple evaluations. For example, coaches aren't going to judge players off "highlight reels" because performance is "cherry-picked." Watching game tape and seeing the player in person allow for more thorough evaluation. 

"Haste makes waste" in evaluation. 

Lagniappe. Play both ends of the court and create that expectation as coaches. 

Lagniappe 2. Win special situations. Chris Oliver shares BOBs.  


Lagniappe 3. Drill skill and toughness. 
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