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Sunday, August 3, 2025

Basketball Points Per Possession (Analytics Is not a Dirty Word)

Don’t worship at the altar of analytics but don’t ignore common sense either. Get "baseline data" by asking players what they know about analytics. Unless we've taught them, expect blank stares. 

Regularly 'check in' with players on their understanding. It's less than we think. 

Let common sense guide us. There’s a continuum in points per possession depending on level. 

  • In the NBA it’s free throws, layups, and threes. 
  • Extrapolating from NBA to youth levels earns disappointment. 
  • Youth teams play zone because few young teams have proficient perimeter players.
  • "In God we trust, all others need data.
  • To paraphrase Billy Beane in "Moneyball," if she's such a good shooter, why doesn't she shoot better

High points per possession:

  • Live ball turnovers
  • Free throws
  • Low ‘contestedness’ layups
  • Basket attacks off cuts
  • Open threes for legitimate shooters
Something less and high variance:
  • PnR 
  • Midrange 
  • Contested layups
  • Contested perimeter 
  • Isolation 
Low points per possession:
  • Turnovers (ZERO percent)
  • Poor shooters
  • High "contestedness" by solid defenders
  • Out of range shots 
  • Off balance and rushed shots
  • Think ROB (in range, open, balanced)
Encourage players toward winning actions:
  • Simplify the game
  • Earlier shot clock possessions before defense is set
  • Avoid zero percent possession (turnovers, "shot turnovers")
  • Better passing as "the quality of the pass relates to the quality of the shot" - Pete Carril 
  • More shots for better shooters, fewer shots for 'limited' shooters ("Just because I want you on the floor doesn't mean I want you to shoot." - Bob Knight)
  • Offensive rebounds create higher percentage (2nd shots)
  • Players who "attack and finish" also create chances for more free throws
Play to 'your' rules. If no shot clock, then no penalty for using time to get better shots. 

More possessions, better possessions, and reduced "bad possessions" are the tickets to success. 

Lagniappe. Develop an ATO portfolio. 

Lagniappe 2. Never allow ourselves to be victims.  

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Basketball - Framing the Narrative

Framing is a mental model designed to produce your desired outcome. For example, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger presented three options to President Nixon regarding the Vietnam War. They were withdrawal (loss), nuclear escalation (unacceptable), or continuation ("muddle along"). Nixon chose indefinite war. Kissinger's limited options framed his desired approach.

Sell strengths. With an open high school coaching job in our community, how would I 'frame' the narrative if I pursued the position? I am not...

Education. I attended a local area public high school as valedictorian and was awarded the Scholar-Athlete Award. I graduated from Harvard with an honors degree in Chemistry and played three years of college baseball as a walk-on. Subsequently, I held an Armed Forces Health Professions Scholarship which earning an M.D. from Boston University. Subsequently, I invested ten years in training and service in the Navy at Bethesda Naval Hospital and was Board Certified in Internal Medicine, Pulmonary Disease, and Critical Care Medicine. I was the Research and Training Officer in the Pulmonary Department. 

Experience. I have not coached regular season high school basketball, coaching middle school for about twenty years, six as a head coach (two teams apiece for three years). Middle school coaching prioritized the player experience and player development. I played high school basketball, serving as Captain (I called it Team Representative) for a sectional champion in the top division of Massachusetts High School basketball. I was not a star; I understand playing a role. 

Player development. I've coached local players who became All-League in four different high school leagues as our players didn't always matriculate at the local high school. Two of our 'graduates' currently play women's D1 basketball in the Atlantic 10. One was on the Patriot League All-Rookie team last season despite playing for a 1-29 American University team. Multiple former players earned entry into the Melrose High School Athletic Hall of Fame. 

Character development and priorities. Numerous graduates from our program have gone on to success in education, business, nursing, and more. One player graduated from Annapolis and is a Navy helicopter pilot. Another nears graduation as a veterinarian. 

Leadership. My high school basketball coach, Sonny Lane, a member of the New England Basketball Hall of Fame, described me as "the best leader the school ever had." I was Assistant Department Head of the Internal Medicine Clinic at Bethesda, Director of Respiratory Services at Melrose-Wakefield Hospital, head of the Intensive Care Unit, and served as President of the Medical Staff for the two-year term. 

Basketball philosophy. As Phil Jackson said, "Basketball is sharing." Our philosophy has always been "Teamwork, improvement, and accountability." Control what you can control with focus, attention to detail, and high effort play seeking to be a "worthy opponent." 

I leave an extensive "paper trail." My basketball blog has over 4,400 entries that chronicle my basketball training, experience, and beliefs. The Feedspot "blog clearinghouse" ranks my basketball blog number 11 in their universe. Yes, I realize that there is no accounting for taste. 

Strategy. I love practice. I believe in devoting half of practice to fundamentals. You don't go back to fundamentals; you never leave. I believe that solid offensive teams must handle pressure, be effective in the pick-and-roll game (PnR), and have a half-court offense with "hard-to-defend" actions such as simple and complex screening, front and back door cutting, and excel in special situations such as BOBs, SLOBs, and ATOs (after time out). 

Defensively, I think all defense begins with solid individual defense. As a high school player, I was discussed at the Middlesex League meeting as being the "best defensive guard" in the league, so I know the commitment required. Team defense starts with individual defense. Multiple defenses add value to the extent that players have the basketball IQ to execute them. 

Communication with parents and playing time. Playing time is earned not dispensed. Maximal transparency allows parents to attend practice as observers if they desire. The best way to earn minutes is effective practice. Coaches should never discuss players with parents other than their own children. Bob Knight aptly said that if you discuss strategy with the fans in the stands that you'll soon be up there with them. A 24 hour "cooling off" period after games helps everyone's perspective. Reserve players should get opportunities within the framework of score, time, and situation. I wouldn't leave starters in to "run up the score" or "keep the score more respectable" in a blowout. 

Commitment. I have lived locally for over 34 years, raised our family here where children attended public school. I understand the history and implications, strengths and limitations of the local high school athletic scene. I only ask that the committee takes into consideration the extensive basketball experience, training, and leadership above. 

Take your work seriously but not yourself.

Lagniappe. Choose from discipline highlights. Routine. Self-care. Give yourself grace. "Do more of what works and less of what doesn't. 

Lagniappe 2. Find these guys.  

Friday, August 1, 2025

Strategic Basketball Notekeeping


Notebooks Are Underrated. Here's Why.

Clayton Christensen, one of the most influential thinkers in business and innovation, had a habit that set him apart—even among Harvard Business School students. As John Coleman recalls in Critical Thinking Starts with Careful Questioning, Christensen kept a notebook to record the best questions his classmates asked. He didn’t just admire them—he studied them. At home, he’d reflect on why a particular question cut deeper or revealed more than others.

His habit wasn't about collecting answers. It was about improving the way he thought.

Coleman shares a few practices that sharpen critical thinking:

  • Hold your hypotheses loosely

  • Embrace the discomfort of not knowing

  • Listen more than you talk

  • Ask open-ended questions (avoid yes/no)

  • Consider the counterintuitive (don’t jump to conclusions)

  • Sit with a problem longer

  • Ask tough follow-ups

He closes with a reminder that’s both simple and profound:

“Learn to formulate and ask questions, rather than simply answering them.”

This approach to thoughtful inquiry is a cornerstone of how high achievers learn, lead, and solve problems.


Quick Note-Taking Hacks

Notebooks don’t have to be leather-bound and old-school—though they can be. Here are a few quick ways to capture what matters:

  1. Use a smartphone notes app

  2. Take a photo or screenshot

  3. Copy a URL and email it to yourself

  4. Send yourself a short text with keywords


Why It Matters

High performers almost always track ideas, questions, and insights. What separates the great from the average isn’t just hard work—it’s structured thinking. They have systems to gather, sort, and share information effectively.

One of the emerging superpowers of artificial intelligence is helping us develop those systems—making us faster, clearer, and more organized in how we handle information.

Coaching begins with preparation, attention to detail, and sharing clear, impactful information. Start with a notebook. Physical or digital, it’s still one of the smartest tools you can carry.

Lagniappe. Let your best players know that you will coach them hard because that helps both them and their teammates.