Basketball: Luck and "Zoom Action"

Luck saved my life. A remote Thanksgiving eve, I drove to my aunt's to pick up the turkey. I witnessed a spate of bad driving along the way. Stopped on North Avenue (where the painted LEFT arrow is), preparing to take a left onto Prospect, I felt a harbinger of doom. When the light turned green, I waited, slowly counting to five and on three, a car on Prospect blasted through (left to right) the red light. It would have T-boned me. Divine intervention, luck? 

Where does luck figure into the basketball success equation? 

Kawhi ask why? 

Don Nelson NBA Finals shot in 1969 needed some luck. 

Ed Smith's book "Luck" shares ideas about luck. Here's a summary from Artificial Intelligence:

"Luck: What It Is and What It Isn't" is a book written by Ed Smith, a former professional cricketer and sports journalist. In the book, Smith discusses the role of luck in success and failure, and how it can be understood and navigated. Some key points from the book include:

• Luck is often thought of as random and uncontrollable, but Smith argues that it can be influenced and understood through certain strategies and mindset.

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• Smith defines luck as "the intersection of opportunity and preparation", meaning that luck is created when one is prepared to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves.

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• Smith suggests that individuals can increase their chances of experiencing good luck by actively seeking out opportunities, being open to new experiences, and being persistent in their efforts.

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• The book discusses how luck and ability are interconnected, and how one's ability can be developed by working hard and putting in the effort.

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• Smith delves into the psychological aspect of luck, and how a positive mindset can lead to an increase in good luck.

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• Smith discusses how the perception of luck differs from person to person, and how it can be affected by various factors such as culture, upbringing, and personal beliefs.

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• Lastly, he talks about how the concept of luck can be applied to various fields, including sports, business, and personal life.

Basketball: Adolescents Often Lack the Maturity to Resist Bad Decisions

Sport is a microcosm of life. Competition provokes strong emotions. Sometimes competitors, both coaches and players, lose emotional control. That varies from expletive-filled rants, to chair throwing, to physical assaults such as the Kermit Washington punch. 

Coaches educate to change behaviors. Teaching sportsmanship doesn't guarantee compliance, but ignoring sportsmanship can escalate bad behaviors. 

We get what we accept. 

• "That is not how we play."
• "That is not who we are."
• "That is not how we represent our team, school, and community."
• "That doesn't show toughness but a lack of maturity."
• "That is unacceptable, inexcusable, and cannot happen again." 

What behaviors can escalate at any level?  

• Trash talking
• Taunting (see below) 
• Gratuitous extracurricular contact 

What's the harm? Younger players imitate what they see. Poor sportsmanship at high levels gets reproduced at low levels. Young players often lack emotional regulation leading to escalation. And often a spirit of "frontier justice" emerges. "You took out my guy and I'm taking out yours."

Years ago, coaching seventh grade girls, I saw one of our players get flattened. During the next time out, a player asked me, "do you want me to take her out?" I replied, "you mean to lunch? No, play the game." 

Biology underpins choices."Most studies show that abstract reasoning, memory, and the formal capacity for planning are fully developed by age 15 or 16. If teenagers are asked hypothetical questions about risk and reward, they usually give the same answers as adults. But the emotional state in which they answer questionnaires is not necessarily the one in which they make important choices. In real life, adolescents, compared to adults, find it more difficult to interrupt an action under way (stop speeding); to think before acting (learn how deep the water is before you dive); and even to choose between safer and riskier alternatives. It is easy for them to say that they would not get into a car with a drunk driver, but more difficult to turn down the invitation in practice. Adolescents' judgment can be overwhelmed by the urge for new experiences, thrill-seeking, and sexual and aggressive impulses."

Coaches model excellence and teach players how to play. If we incite violence, then we are the problem not the solution. Play hard, play fair. 

Lagniappe. 

 

Basketball: Counters Against Aggressive 3-Point Defense

Three-point shooting, layups, and free throws form core "value" offense. Three-point shots steadily increase in the NBA and 'trickle down' to NCAA, high school, and even younger ages where three-point efficiency is low. 

I find watching high school and lower level players air-balling threes beyond tedious.   

Source

The 2022-23 season continues the trend with the top five 'users' taking a minimum of 39.5 per game. 

What alternatives or options might exist to ever-increasing three-point shots? 

1. Basket attack against hard closeouts 

2. Expand transition offense. That entails philosophy, conditioning, practice, and commitment to transition. Coaches relinquish control with high volumes of transition. (teach more, coach less). 

3. Use more pass and cut actions out of spread offense where defenders are pulled out. Examples:

4. Improve free throw shooting. More basket attacks and when applicable post play earn fouls and teams must capitalize. 

5. Emphasize generating layups off other offenses. Examples:

• Blind pig
• Pick-and-roll (rejected screens, slips, hit the roller)
• Isolation attacks from elbow (box drills applied)

Yes, getting players to buy-in to something other than firing away may present challenges, but players without high level shooting skills should embrace options. 

Lagniappe. Attacking closeouts. 

"Making Decisions" - Chapter 3, Input from "Swarm Harmonisers"

 "You need to spot talent that whispers, not just that which shouts." - Rasmus Ankersen, Football Director in "Making Decisions" by Ed Smith

Some players add more than their "numbers." They energize, they understand how to use and to shrink space, and impact winning in ways invisible to some eyes.

They may be 'glue guys', sticky defenders, and more. For the Celtics, despite the excellence of Tatum and Brown, the "swarm harmoniser" is Marcus Smart. 

Ed Smith describes the disrupted harmony he experienced in a 2007 match. All proceeded swimmingly until the opposition brought in a left-handed bowler who put him out of sorts into a virtual fog. That moment taught him the old adage, "variety is the spice of life" and team. 

In baseball and cricket, the batter's reaction time is around 0.4 seconds. Experimentally, batters are less able to predict pitch location when delivered by port-siders. Lefties have a natural advantage. 

Smith notes, "Coaches own the practice ground." We can be biased in favor of players who are superior in practice, making us look good. But under the bright lights, do we want to cultivate appearance or the production of the 'gamer' who shines reflecting those lights? 

Smith distinguishes practice's 'subjectivity' versus competition's 'objective' performance. And still more, his selection of Curran, the left-armed bowler, improved the performance of a pair of teammates by about a third. In effect, the lefty was a 'swarm harmoniser' for his right-handed teammates. 

How can we apply to basketball? 

• A player creates space through both initial and adjusted positioning. 
• Players impact passers by screening and cutting, and cutters by passing.
• Players can be energy givers or energy takers. 
• Players can be usage heavy or usage light. As a high school senior I averaged 10 points with eight shots/game. I wasn't taking shots away from primary scorers. 
• Players can absorb defensive responsibilities covering scorers and lightening the defensive load for others covering non-scorers. 
• Players can have positional versatility both offensively and defensively. 

AI perspective: A swarm harmonizer is a device or algorithm that is used to coordinate and synchronize the behavior of multiple autonomous agents or drones, also known as a swarm. The goal of a swarm harmonizer is to ensure that the behavior of the individual agents is coordinated and that the overall behavior of the swarm is efficient and effective. This can be accomplished through the use of communication protocols, decision-making algorithms, and other techniques. The use of swarm harmonizers is becoming increasingly important in fields such as robotics, unmanned aerial systems, and other areas where multiple autonomous agents are used together.

In basketball, swarm harmonisers are metaphorical glue. But consider the alternative, swarm disruption. Art imitates life in "Star Trek: Beyond." 

Lagniappe: Adding moves.

 

Books That Enhanced My Coaching with Lessons Learned

Twenty-five percent of Americans never read. I'd wager heavy coin that the number is far lower among coaches. Coaches are educators. Educators are leaders. Authentic leaders read. 

What books leave marks on coaches, regardless of sport? That's not to say don't read Dean Smith, John Wooden, Pete Newell, Pete Carril, or Bob Knight. Read widely. Leadership, philosophy, and history impact how we think. 

Everyone finds their way. Not everyone takes advantage of available assets. I make observations and occasional suggestions but I don't tell anybody how to coach their team. They're at practice. They own it. 

Here's a starter set of books and "the process" why.  

Legacy (James Kerr) shares the leadership tradition of the New Zealand All-Blacks, their integration of Maori culture into sport. Each player understands his mission to "leave the jersey in a better place." They know "champions do extra." 

Game Changer (Dr. Fergus Connolly) explores how games are played through the eyes of a specific sport, players, and coaching. I need to reread this, multiple times. It also frames the structure of each possession and conversion between them. A possession traverses initial spacing, player and ball movement, and the scoring moment. 

Teach Like a Champion (Doug Lemov) gives specifics on classroom teaching which coaches can apply to coaching. 

Thinking in Bets (Annie Duke) suggests we consider both probability and the intervention of luck in decision-making. 

Tools of Titans (Ryan Holiday) shares interviews with a myriad of the rich and famous, in an out of sport. Most have mindfulness as a commonality. Did you know Arnold Schwarzenegger was a chess addict or that he leveraged building patios into a real estate empire, before he was famous? He also knew he wasn't the smartest guy, surrounding himself with others who were. 

Atomic Habits (James Clear) represents the importance of making good habits easier and bad habits hard. A treadmill workout isn't so hard as getting on the treadmill in the first place. 

Making Decisions (Ed Smith) challenges us to improve our decision-making by synching the strength of data and artificial intelligence with human creativity and intuition. 

The Leadership Moment (Michael Useem) examines leaders who made critical decisions under extreme pressure with less regard for themselves than for the group. An example? Wagner Dodge built an "escape fire" at his feet to stop a raging forest fire, trying to save his men. Take time out to think. 

Don't worry about reading them all. Find one and start there. 

Lagniappe. It's always eye-opening the chasm between expectation and reality. 

Lagniappe 2. I'm reading "Bill of Obligations." Perhaps that's more necessary than "Bill of Rights." Civility and civics both belong in a flourishing democracy. 

Making Decisions: In the Beginning (Chapter 1) Plus Great Video on Developing Touch at the Rim

Ed Smith's "Making Decisions" challenges us to think and do better as decision makers. Here are takeaways that do not afford the first chapter justice. 

To understand decision-making, work to understand previous history. What made a special or specious team work or fail? 

If past performance is poor or unacceptable, do not feel obligated to repeat the methods and decisions that delivered those results. Einstein reminds us, "insanity is repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results." 

If performance is poor, is it related to lack of talent, lack of diversity (too many similar players), too much caution, or a lack of players capable of "unlocking" quality in others? 

For example, in baseball, if our rotation is exclusively right-handed breaking ball pitchers, opponents will adjust and we are unlikely to have enough superior hurlers to win over the long pull. 

Realize that facts and interpretation are not the same. Without superior analysis, we may not generate useful information. Our goal should be "understanding what's going on." 

Smith refers to an article by Michael Oakeshott subtitled, "How to Pick the Derby Winner." He advises us to study the decision process. Here's a summary from Artificial Intelligence. 

Lagniappe. Building touch. High level coaches and players have no reason to avoid sharing with the masses. Why? Because mere mortals (us) are unlikely to do the work of greatness to implement them.

 

Basketball: 13 Short Video Teaching Clips, Earn the Right to Win

Study video every day. These 'teaching clips' series seem popular with readers. Why did one team win and what errors can they clean up? Fifty years ago was an era of grainy black-and-white, "run that back again" film. "Run that back again" was usually the beginning of a nightmare. It wasn't personal; it was about earning to the right to win. 

1. "Fake a pass to make a pass" and "the ball is gold." Pass fakes move defenders east and west and the entry pass sets up "inside-outside" action but results in a turnover. We heard "the ball is gold" a 1,000 times. Don't give away the gold. 

2. A shot fake is "a shot not taken." A good action turns into a live ball turnover, resulting in high points/possession. 

3. Find 'four ways to score'. Cecilia uses her length and post footwork to get to the line and made 11 of 12 free throws among 28 points last night. "Teams that can't shoot free throws last as long in the postseason as dogs that chase cars" said Tom Hellen. Remember getting free throws is one of Dean Oliver's 'four factors'. 

 

4. "Find the threat." Gold might be trapped but isn't. That exposes the help side. The weak side guard gets caught high and that opens up a layup. "The help can never be beaten." 

5. "Water the flowers." Black works the ball until they 'draw 2' and expose the post mismatch. Patience and passing gets an easy two.

 

6. DME... defensive mistakes and errors. If one's intent is to trap, then you have to stop penetration up the sideline. The breakdown occurs early on in the process, the failed trap. 

7. Yogi Berra said, "you can observe a lot by just watching." Open.

8. Great players "win in space." Remember when your parent said, "don't play in the traffic." Success results from the sum of great possessions that generate quality chances. 

9. "Little things make big things happen." - John Wooden  Containing the ball starts solid team defense. Two players contain dribble penetration here...no small thing. Dave Smart says that great teams play "harder for longer." 

10. Play the "what's next" game. BOB with an initial triangle/stack design. I'm guessing the blocks pop to the corners and the stack replaces them with a baseline overload on the blocks. There appears to be confusion on gold and it's a turnover. 

11. Strong teams play with intent. Pressure defense isn't new. It's worth considering Phil Woolpert and USF in the 1950s. The 2-2-1 defense often causes confusion for those unfamiliar. Deny middle penetration, force and trap the sidelines, and look to intercept passes arced over the trap. Black plays it well despite relatively undersized guards. Here gold has to take a timeout to avoid a 10-second call. 

12. "Protect the basket." Many BOBs get basket cutters especially by moving defenders as cutters 'flatten the corners'. In "Why the Best Are the Best," Kevin Eastwood explains how the Celtics allowed the Lakers 32 points on defensive mistakes in a Boston WIN. Defensive errors happen at every level. 

 

13. Be detail oriented re: ball containment. Initially black contains the gold PG. But after the switch, the black defender has limited "bend" and the penetrator wins the "shoulders game." 

Bob Knight Wisdom from "The Power of Negative Thinking"

Study greatness. 

Coach Bob Knight argues that winning arises through avoiding mistakes. Here are substantiating quotes from "The Power of Negative Thinking." 

Most speak for themselves. Some are lightly annotated. 

We see this all the time as the high draft choice, the scholarship player, or highly paid player gets chances time after time. Sometimes we see 'seniority' rewarded over young players with more ability and higher performance. 

Especially with the prevalence of close games, avoiding bad possessions separates high level winning from losing. 

The five "must answers" for the plebe at Annapolis are: "yes, sir, no, sir, aye, aye sir, right away, sir, and I don't know but I'll find out, sir." 

Everyone benefits from coaching. 

"Be good at what we do a lot."

"Self-reflection is critical in evaluating success and failure."

As General Patton said, paraphrasing, "you don't win a war by dying for your country but by making the other guy die for his." 

If not, why? 

We often overestimate what players know and underestimate their needs. We cannot get everyone on the same page when they don't know what's on it. 

Lagniappe. We don't discuss sportsmanship enough, especially good sportsmanship. Sportsmanship doesn't always have to be 'interscholastic'. 

Practice sportsmanship by practicing hard, being a great teammate, celebrating the success of others, and supporting the program. It's the journey not just the destination. 

As communities, cultivate good sportsmanship - respecting opposing communities, coaches, and players. Condemn harassment and bias and "dirty" not physical play. 

How Should We Use AI?

Use Artificial Intelligence. A current version (ChatGPT) has passed the Bar, Medical Licensure Exam, and Wharton MBA. It's a matter of how and now not whether and when. Combining human creativity and human intuition with AI offers the best from both worlds. 

How might we use AI?

• Generate ideas.
• Suggest practice improvement.
• Data analysis.  
• Add player development ideas. 
• Consider controversies and alternatives in our sport.
• Assist with strength and conditioning. "Strength and conditioning for basketball"
• Inform thoughts for training resilience. 
• Check on current thoughts on a topic.
• Broaden our horizons when considering a topic.  

Lagniappe. (AI take on positive coaching). Positive coaching is a coaching philosophy that emphasizes the use of positive reinforcement, rather than negative criticism, to motivate and inspire athletes.

The goal of positive coaching is to create a supportive and encouraging environment in which athletes can develop their skills, build confidence, and achieve their full potential. Positive coaches focus on the process of improvement, rather than just the outcome, and use constructive feedback to help athletes identify and overcome obstacles. They also focus on building relationships and fostering a sense of community among the athletes they coach.

Overall, positive coaching is believed to be more effective than traditional, negative coaching methods in promoting long-term success and enjoyment for athletes.

Lagniappe 2. Improve process. 

It's not the 30 minutes on the treadmill that are hard, it's getting on the treadmill. 

Basketball Endgame: Get a Layup

"The endgame is where you have to know a lot." - Garry Kasparov, Chess Grandmaster

What artificial intelligence says. One option for a baseline out of bounds play with only 3 seconds remaining and the score tied would be to inbound the ball to a player cutting towards the basket for a quick layup or shot attempt. Another option would be to inbound the ball to a player who can catch and shoot quickly, such as a 3-point shooter. The key is to get the ball in quickly and give the player a chance to score before time expires.

Brad Stevens studied over a 1,000 endgames looking for edges. 

Here are some actions that worked and why. 

1. Reverse. I think of it as the reverse of America's Play, where the corner player screens for the inbounder. It's always about finding the right combination of players who can execute. 

2. Gonzaga box. Diagonal screen and "the screener is the second cutter." 

3. Fence. Here's the 'small' fence with multiple options. The first play is run to bring the cutter off the screen. The second allows the cutter to basket cut instead. And the third uses screen-the-screener action. 

4. Triangle. This is another version of baseline overload which mostly won't get a layup but will get an open corner 3. It depends on the inbounder read and the actions of x3 and x5. 

5. Lion. It's the opposite of Tiger (lining the players across the free throw line. 

6. "4" uses screen-the-screener action out of a box set. We once scored FIVE times in a game with this. 

7. "33." Another box set slip action. It has to be 'set up' with previous back screen actions and requires 3 to sell the screen and to cut urgently. 

8. 54 Blast. Screening the middle is one key, along with timing. 

9. SLOB. GSW Corner rip. We didn't always score with this serial screen but usually got great looks. Alternative is on the right with classic "zipper cut" inbound and then screen-the-screener for KOBE. 

10.SLOB "Boomerang" zipper roll. 

Basketball: Becoming a Better Coach

 “Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory:

1 He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.
2 He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.
3 He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks.
4 He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.
5 He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Coaching crosses domains. Your parent is a coach. Your English teacher is a coach. Your boss is a coach. To become better, learn to coach ourselves. 

Even Hall of Famers work to improve. Former Celtic Paul Pierce would return to LA each summer and find a part of his game to improve. 

Coach John Wooden gave each player a new basketball at the end of the season. If it came back "lightly worn" at the beginning of next season, that was a bad sign. 

Everyone benefits from coaching. Surgeon Atul Gawande hired a coach to oversee his surgery. He expected the senior surgeon wouldn't find much, but he saw numerous details to improve. 

What 'universals' make better coaches? 

1. Attitude. How do we get more from our players? Do we lift them up or beat them down? Positive coaching yield more positive results. 

2. Player (staff) development. "Every day is player development day." Coach Don Meyer had a saying, "Would you rather have two better plays or two better players?" Some coaches are 'gatherers'; others are developers. Melrose's only recruiting pipeline is within the school system and Coach Celli through word of mouth and clinics finds ways to keep the talent coming. 

3. Cultivate allies. Mr. Rogers said, "Look for the helpers." Enthusiasm attracts supporters. So does winning. "Victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan."

4. Become a storyteller. Learn to inspire, to attract and retain talent, and keep people engaged. Beware hubris. 

Daedalus and Icarus

The story of Icarus is one of the most famous tales from Greek myth. Icarus was the son of Daedalus, the craftsman who built the Labyrinth from the Minotaur story recounted above. Ever the inventor, Daedalus fashioned some wings out of feathers and wax, for him and his son to use to fly their way off the island of Crete.

However, Icarus got carried away and flew too close to the sun, which melted the wax in his wings. He fell to his death, drowning in the Aegean. Now, Icarus’ name is a byword for one of the Greeks’ most favourite themes: hubris, or overreaching oneself.

5. Use available technology (but don't become overdependent on it). Books, blogs, online and in-person clinics, YouTube videos, Artificial intellegence and other resources help us improve. But it all starts with our engagement, commitment, and editing of the acquired knowledge. 

6. Sometimes less is more. 

7. Look in the mirror. 

As a coach, after each 'evolution' ask ourselves:

• What went well?
• What went poorly?
• What can we do differently next time?
• What is the overarching lesson? 

8. Use the C's. 

Cherish your experience and teammates. Everyone cannot be a great player. Everyone can choose to be a great teammate. 

9. Get players to know, "Control what you can control." 

You worked in the offseason to improve and have a chance to contribute on the court. And you weren't picked to be in the starting lineup. Do you sulk, complain about the coaching, transfer to another school? Or do you work even harder? Assistant Coach Roy Williams asked Michael Jordan what he was willing to do at UNC. Jordan said that he would work as hard as anyone ever had at Carolina. Williams said, "you have to work harder than that."

10. Use emotion. "Nothing great is ever accomplished without enthusiasm."

Lagniappe (something extra). Combine the human and machine. After writing this piece, I consulted artificial intelligence (ChatGPT) for its input.