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Sunday, September 14, 2025

What Basketball Coaching (Wisdom) Makes a Difference?

Wisdom is in the eye of the beholder. One coach says, "Aha" while another says "Meh." Judge for yourself.

    1. Everyone benefits from coaching, even coaches. "Mentoring is the only shortcut to excellence." The classic example was surgeon Atul Gawande hiring a senior colleague to oversee his technique. Bill Belichick had a colleague Ernie Adams, a colleague since high school. Some called him "Belichick's Belichick." 

    2. "Winners are trackers." - Darren Hardy  Measure progress in skills, physical development, and focus. 

    3. "Whether you think you can or you can't, you're right." - Henry Ford   Expending energy developing players' skills and their confidence pays dividends. 

    4. "Don't extrapolate analytics from professionals" to less experienced players. In the NBA it's free throws, layups, and three-point shooting. High school teams can and do win with three-point shooting. Most will not. 

    5. "Four Factors" extend common sense. Differentials of:

  • Effective field goal percentage
  • Turnovers 
  • Rebounding
  • Attacking the basket (free throws)
determine many games. ChatGPT Plus assist:

Short version: shooting drives wins the most, and it compounds with ball security. Here’s a practical way to think about the best pairs of Oliver’s Four Factors.

The four (quick refresher)

  • eFG% (shot quality/shot making, 3s worth 1.5×)

  • TOV% (ball security)

  • ORB% (extra shots)

  • FT Rate (free points & foul pressure)

Most productive two-factor combinations (offense)

  1. High eFG% + Low TOV% → “Clean, accurate offense.”

    • You shoot it well and rarely give it away. Every trip ends in a good shot instead of a live-ball mistake.

    • Best for skill-heavy teams with confident creators and spacing.

  2. High eFG% + High ORB% → “Misses become passes.”

    • Great when you create quality looks and also re-own your misses.

    • Suits teams with a stretch-plus-crash mix; stresses defenses that help on drives.

  3. Low TOV% + High ORB% → “Possession machine.”

    • Even if you’re average shooting, you manufacture a net shot advantage: few empty trips + extra boards.

    • Blue-collar identity; travels well on the road.

  4. High eFG% + High FT Rate → “Efficient pressure.”

    • Make shots and draw fouls. Defenses must choose: contest hard (risk fouls) or concede quality looks.

    • Works with downhill guards and shooters who punish help.

  5. High ORB% + High FT Rate → “Smash & crash.”

    • Punishes switches and small lineups. Even with middling shooting, you win on whistles and put-backs.

    • Watch foul trouble on your end and transition D.

Most productive two-factor combinations (defense)

  1. Suppress opp eFG% + Control your D-REB%

    • One-and-done on tough shots. That’s the defensive gold standard.

  2. Suppress opp eFG% + Force TOV%

    • Pressure plus contests—limits both shot quality and volume.

  3. Force TOV% + Finish with D-REB%

    • If you gamble to create mistakes, you must end possessions when they shoot.

  4. Suppress opp eFG% + Low opp FT Rate

    • Contest without fouling; keeps their efficiency capped when shots aren’t falling.

How to choose your pair (game-planning)

  • If you expect to be out-shot (opponent has elite shot-makers): target Low TOV% + High ORB% to win the possession margin.

  • If you have a shooting edge: double down with High eFG% + Low TOV%; don’t give back value with sloppy giveaways.

  • If their rim protection is great: lean High eFG% (via 3s) + Low TOV% (skip tough paint attempts) or High FT Rate + ORB% (pressure the rim and live on the line/boards).

  • If they switch a lot: punish with ORB% (seal mismatches) paired with your better of eFG% or FT Rate.

Benchmarks (use as targets)

  • Offense: eFG% ≥ 55%, TOV% ≤ 12%, ORB% ≥ 32%, FT Rate ≥ 0.30

  • Defense: Opp eFG% ≤ 49%, Force TOV% ≥ 17%, Allow ORB% ≤ 25%, Opp FT Rate ≤ 0.20

Simple in-game levers

  • Slipping below your eFG% target? Protect the ball and crash to offset.

  • Turnover spike? Throttle back risk (fewer live-ball passes), hunt fouls to stabilize efficiency.

  • Opponent hot from 3? Switch or top-lock, then own the D-glass; don’t let makes turn into momentum runs.

    6. Excellent teams don't give games away. Winning close and late means avoiding bad offensive (bad shots, turnovers) and defensive (missed assignments, fouling, second shots) possessions, having strong special situations (e.g. BOB, SLOB, ATOs), and making free throws. High ambition teams are strong closers with offensive and defensive delay games, too. 

    7. Learn to apply and to defeat pressure. Strong teams can survive deficits and comeback attempts by maintaining or stealing possessions. Especially with young players, acclimate them to close and late situations in each practice. 

    8. "Every day is player development day." - Dave Smart  Investing in player development via study or outsourcing pays big dividends on the back end. 

Find something worth adding to your proven approaches. 

Lagniappe. "Hope is not a strategy." 

Lagniappe 2. Invest in finishing.  

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