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Friday, December 5, 2025

Basketball - Mental Model - "Gray Thinking"

For many, the world is black and white. It's comforting to adopt our "truth." Unfortunately, life exposes us when the world turns gray. 

If there were one "best way," everyone should do that - teaching basketball, coaching basketball, practicing basketball. If the Princeton Offense were the best, shouldn't every NBA team run it? If it's all about the three, shouldn't everyone think like Joe Mazzulla?  

Gray thinking is a mental model (discussed in Super Thinking) that rejects black-and-white, all-or-nothing judgments. It’s the discipline of holding multiple possibilities at once, tolerating uncertainty, updating beliefs, and avoiding premature conclusions.

It’s a cognitive skill closely tied to:

  • nuance

  • probability

  • adaptability

  • learning

  • emotional regulation

It’s what high-level decision-makers and elite athletes need.

Below is a clean explanation of gray thinking and then a translation into basketball coaching, player development, and in-game decision-making.

What Is “Gray Thinking”?

Gray thinking shares several characteristics:

1. Avoiding absolute categories

Not everything is “good or bad,” “smart or dumb,” “success or failure.”
Most things fall along a continuum. 


Michael Mauboussin presented a Skill-Luck continuum with certain casino games pure luck and chess nearly pure skill. 

2. Holding competing ideas simultaneously

Believe:

  • “Our defense needs work.”

  • “Our defense is trending upward.”
    Both can be true.

3. Emphasizing probabilities, not certainties

Great decisions live in the world of likelihood, not guarantees. When Steve Kerr started Andre Iguodala over Andrew Bogut in The Finals to help beat the Cavs, he exercised probabilities based on film study. 

4. Remaining flexible and update-friendly

When the environment changes, gray thinkers adjust quickly - put ego on the back burners. 

5. Resisting emotional oversimplification

Fear and pressure push us toward black-and-white conclusions. Gray thinking slows the emotional brain and activates the analytical brain.

In short: Gray thinkers don’t lock in too quickly or too tightly. They think in a spectrum of possibilities.

How Gray Thinking Applies to Basketball

Basketball harmonizes this mental model because the sport is filled with noise, randomness, small samples, and partial truths. Players who see in shades-not absolutes-manage complexity better.

Here are five examples tied to coaching.

1. Evaluating Players: Avoiding “Always” and “Never”

Black-and-white thinking:

  • “She’s a bad shooter.”

  • “He's a turnover machine.”

Gray thinking:

  • “She’s an inconsistent shooter who improves when her base is stable.”

  • “He struggles with left-hand pressure but reads ball screens well.”

Why it matters:

  • Gray evaluation leads to specific, trainable improvement plans.

  • Players feel seen, not judged, leading to better buy-in.

2. In-Game Decision Making: Choosing the Best Probability, Not a “Perfect” Option

Black-and-white thinking wants:

  • The perfect shot

  • The perfect possession

  • Zero turnovers or mistakes

That doesn’t exist.

Gray thinking embraces:

  • “This is a good decision in this context.”

  • “A 36% catch-and-shoot 3 by our best shooter is worth more than a highly contested layup.”

  • “Our press is working 70% of the time, worth it.”

This leverages probability.

3. Handling Shooting Slumps: Multiple Causes and Solutions

Black-and-white:

  • “I can’t shoot.”

  • “My shot is broken.”

Gray thinking:

  • “My arc is good, but my balance is inconsistent.”

  • “I can improve my shot selection.”

A gray-thinking athlete:

  • Breaks down performance into components

  • Adjusts and believes improvement is stepwise and available

This aligns with Don Meyer’s idea: “Fix the misses, don’t fix the make.”

4. Conflict and Leadership: Understanding Multiple Truths

Black-and-white team culture reacts like this:

  • “She’s wrong.”

  • “He’s selfish.”

Gray leadership says:

  • “She’s frustrated despite trying her best.”

  • “He wants more minutes and cares about winning.”

This improves:

  • Communication

  • Empathy

  • Buy-in

5. Strategy and Adjustments: Nothing Works All the Time

Black-and-white thinking wants:

  • One defense

  • One ball screen coverage

  • One lineup

Gray thinking understands:

  • Matchups matter

  • Game flow matters

  • Fouls, fatigue, momentum matter

A gray-thinking coach:

  • Changes defenses

  • Uses dynamic lineup combinations

  • Teaches “If/Then” thinking:

    • “If they ice ball screens, we go to Spain action.”

    • “If they overplay, use more screens and back cuts."

This is optionality, dynamic choice, high-level basketball.

Much of life is nuanced not absolute. Basketball is no different.

Lagniappe. Cool action, a weave into a backscreen.   


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