Within each game narrative, every possession has a micro-story. Players and teams profit by editing each possession. Careers are made in the cutting room.
The yin and yang of positive or negative actions decides a possession. Within an individual possession, dominant offense defeats unflawed defense.
Coaching trains and structures actions to win possessions. The game sums those individual decisions and executions.
Are we getting desired shots and disallowing shots they want? At times, it might appear 'surprising yet inevitable' that guys like Curry can move hard away from the basket and catch, turn, and score with overwhelming skill.
About a third of games are decided by two or fewer possessions. Kevin Eastman reported that within a winning playoff game against the Lakers, the 2008 Celtics allowed 32 points off defensive mistakes. Our job is continual deletion of mistakes.
Examples of possession themes.
Mismatches create edges...small versus big
"The screener is the second cutter."
"One more" pass.
Shotmaking. Superior offense cannot be defended.
"Fall in love with easy." DHO into a defensive fail as Dallas loses ball containment. The low defender gets caught in-between.
Lagniappe (something extra). Coaches want "no middle" or "no paint" for good reasons.
All things being equal, things are never equal. We rely on experience and "gut instinct." Is that the best way? This article asks us to think about how and why we decide.
Nobel Laureate Danny Kahneman et. al explore the impact of "Noise" in decision-making.
"Most people...simply eyeball each line and produce a quick judgment." You did and judged Susie the stronger player.
Kahneman lays out the following:
A set of predictor variables are used to predict a target outcome
Human judges produce clinical predictions
A rule (such as multiple regression) uses the same predictors to produce mechanical predictions of the same outcome
The overall accuracy of clinical and mechanical predictions is compared
Paul Meehl examined studies comparing clinical and mechanical predictions. "Mechanical rules were generally superior to human judgment."
In a given data set, data could be flawed (e.g. sample size) or random.
Criteria might deserve heavier weighting or not correlate with success.
A great leader at the bottom of the roster may or may not change outcomes.
The difference between 6 and 7 may not be the same as between 9 and 10.
Some "off the chart" skill might dominate.
Positive traits tend to correlate.
It's rare for a high basketball IQ player to be completely deficient in skill (I had one once).
Models have been used to predict success in graduate schools and the likelihood that accused criminals will jump bail.
We know the three top predictors on NBA success are college attended, performance, and age at the time of draft (younger is better). Caring about a player's Wonderlic score or personality are interesting but not necessarily predictive.
Some factors may overpower others, such as scoring. Should we concern ourselves with "possession enders" such as the Four Factors (field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounds, and free throws)? Or, if we have several dominant scorers or rebounders should we look for complementary players?
Kahneman shares, "There is so much noise in judgment that a noise-free model of a judge achieves more accurate predictions than the actual judge does."
Are we opposed to algorithms? Can simple rules replace our judgment? Can we simplify?
"Robin Dawes...achieved a breakthrough...he proposed giving all predictors equal weights. His surprising discovery was that these equal-weight models are about as accurate as "proper" regression models, and far superior to clinical judgments."
The key is having inputs (predictors) that correlate with results. For example, a data point like "charges taken" might be useful but not correlate with results.
The "broken leg" exception tells us to override the model when we have superior information, e.g. a "broken leg." That could include criminal or other "deal-breaker" character history.
Why don't we use prediction algorithms?
Machines are not infallible.
We trust our decisions (Moneyball)
We fear replacement by algorithms.
Lack of knowledge about the data on algorithms hinders us.
At the least, including objective performance measures gives us information to challenge our "lying eyes."
Kahneman closes a chapter, "When there is a lot of data, machine-learning algorithms will do better than humans and better than simple models...they are free of noise and they do not attempt to apply complex, usually invalid insights about the predictors."
Spencer Haywood got a tryout at the University of Detroit. The coach told him that if he sank fifteen consecutive free throws, he would earn a scholarship. The rest is history. "In God we trust; all others need data."
Leave no doubt. Everyone experiences insecurity. Coaching transforms individuals and teams into resilient organisms. Coaches craft confidence with multiple tools.
Success breeds confidence. Bill Parcells preached, "confidence comes from proven success." Learning to win is a process. Talk alone won't get it done. The process of hard work and communication helps teams earn the right to win.
Affirmations. The voice in our head sends tens of thousands of messages daily. "You can only be as good as you believe you are." In 10-Minute Toughness, Jason Selk informs clients to have both an identity statement (this is who I am) and a performance statement (this is what I do).
Coaching. Education changes behavior. Pete Newell taught that coaches' first job is helping players to see the game. But it's also how they approach the game. Erik Spoelstra summarized his Heat goals: "Be the toughest, nastiest, best-conditioned, most professional, least-liked team."
Words stick as revelations or albatrosses. Speak greatness.
Visualization. Visualizing action activates parts of the brain triggering their execution. Selk teaches clients to develop an "ESPN-type" mental highlight reel lasting several minutes. Use about five highlight clips. Maybe you have a catch-and-shoot three game winner, a critical block, a charge taken in a key moment, or a crafty pass setting up a winning basket. Assemble and replay them in a personal mental highlight reel.
Therapy. Some players need more counseling and treatment than we can give. TeamUsa.org elaborates,“Student-athletes, coaches and staff tend to minimize mental disorders or psychological distress because of the expectations of strength, stability and "mental toughness" inherent in the sports culture.” Some need medication to manage anxiety, depression, and/or dual diagnoses with substance use.
Increases brain density in learning and memory areas (MRI) and reduces in stress center (amygdala)
Used by many professional and Olympic athletes (Kobe, Shaq, KAT)
It's easy, non-denominational, and apolitical
Here's a brief, five-minute example of a "body scan"
Praise and publicity. Being supportive and positive costs nothing. Recognition is part of how players get 'paid'. Many parents thirst for recognition of their child's effort and contribution. Share the wealth.
Networking. Networking includes not only communications with higher level coaches but also others who provide additional perspective, training, opportunity, and instruction. If Coach John Calipari has his Personal Board of DIrectors, players can have additional mentors.
Build players up in this physical and mental game.
Outcomes are seldom random. Teams win and lose games, especially close ones, for specific reasons. Some are controllable, others not. Decision-making and execution define success and failure. We underestimate unwitnessed player development and overcount in-game coaching.
Talent disparities. My high school coach told me that a former NBA player offered to steer players his way, however many he wanted. He declined, electing to keep player development in the community. AAU players sometimes create 'superteams' mimicking what they see at higher levels. More of the same is likely.
Poor skill development. If achievement is performance multiplied by time, then poor performance and little time invested equals low achievement. Basketball is a harsh mistress demanding high levels of time and attention. Other activities and other sports compete for attention, time, and dollars. Volleyball, soccer, and lacrosse gain at basketball's expense.
Defensive mistakes and errors. "More and better" shots than our opponents includes not allowing easy baskets. Those baskets arise in live ball turnovers, bad transition defense, poor ball containment, lack of help (and recovery), bad pick-and-roll defense, and undisciplined fouling. Bad teams give games away.
Poor shot quality or shooting. Everyone should know what good shots are for them and each of their teammates. Specific shooting statistics arise from shot charts which have been around for over half a century (we used them in high school). Far more sophisticated ones are widely circulated.
Missed free throws. I saw a high school team lose by a single point while shooting 20/45 from the stripe. Inexcusable. Practice, compete, and track. We shot four rounds of ten against a partner with the daily winner competing against the coach to avoid team sprints.
Bad transition defense. Transition hoops can change momentum, inspire the fans, and demoralize defenders. They figuratively suck the oxygen out of the room for the victim. Define roles (two or three to the glass?) and set expectations (e.g. no more than three transition hoops per game).
Turnovers. Turnovers kill dreams...and coaches. Study and correct the origins, either decision-making or execution. When we've tracked type and number, we've reduced them about twenty percent.
Ball containment. If layups and free throws win games, then inability to stay in front of the ball is a springboard for both. Coaches decide whether to force weak hand and how much help to give (e.g. via packline style defense).
Toughness. Toughness IS a skill. Soft teams don't get their share of loose balls, rebounds, don't set or fight through hard screens, don't take charges, don't communicate, lose leads, and seldom come back. They don't beat good teams and underachieve on the road.
"Iron sharpens iron." Cupcake schedules might get you to the playoffs but don't forge deep runs.
Bad coaching. Define bad coaching. "You know it when you see it."
Where's the lower-hanging fruit? Winning has value exactly because it's hard. There's no shortcut.
Individual skill development (three level scoring)
Strength and conditioning (ball containment demands it)
1 on 1, 2 on 2 (especially pick-and-roll)
Small-sided games
Situational basketball practice (script close and late)
O-D-O (offense-defense-offense special situations practice)
Pressure-pressure-pressure (good teams apply and handle it...advantage-disadvantage practice with constraints such as limiting dribbles matters)
Where's the proof? Last season, I had three program graduates with deep playoff runs. One won a second state title in the Prep School division, a sophomore led her team to the Final Four in her division, and another soph was a key player on a volleyball team advancing to their Final Four.
"Pound the table for player development."
Lagniappe. Sometimes "fresh" is old. Huh? Who preached the pound dribble into shot elevation? Jerry West.
Sara Blakely says, "obsess the product." Diane von Furstenberg reminds us to focus on the product, "what is it that makes it special and valuable?"
Marketing is to product as tactics are to technique. Good marketing or strategy won't fix a mediocre product or deficient skill set. That doesn't mean that Xs and Os don't matter. Of course they do, especially for players and teams capable of good decision-making and execution. But don't put the marketing cart before the performance horse.
With a roster of talented players with court vision, decision and execution skills, then Xs and Os water those flowers. But asking what offense is best for fifth or sixth graders with low skill asks what fertilizer is best for weeds.
I don't bring any stone tablets. Make your own judgments. Ask players their TODAY PLAN to improve.
Pound the table for player development. Determine which skills are player MUSTS for your program and implement SPECIFICS to growth them.
Academic achievement...a default expectation. Learning skills play on and off the court. "There is no ability without eligibility." Teach study skills...Pomodoro Technique, spaced learning, self-testing Challenge every player to make the honor roll.
Team skills... everyone can be a good teammate. These skills work at home, in the classroom, and on the job. We had one award, player voted, Best Teammate.
Impact winning...how does your contribution translate to winning? Publicly recognize role players who contribute to winning.
Layups and shooting form... I like Herb Welling's idea of teaching layups without dribbling and then adding the dribble Track progress. "Winners are trackers."
Defensive stance and positioning...defense begins with ball containment and gains from help (cover 1.5 your player and half of another) Get 3-7-2 (3 consecutive stops, 7 times a half, both halves)
Intangible skills...toughness is a skill, hard work is a skill, energy is a skill. Energy is a force multiplier. Challenge leaders and point guards to bring energy every day
Practice decision-making and situational basketball...lead by 1, thirty seconds to go with the ball...what will they do, what do we do? Great decisions start in practice
Respect. When coaches don't model respect for the game, officials, assistants, and players, players won't either. Bring our best version daily.
Conditioning. I believe in conditioning within drills. Set personal and team standards.
Lagniappe: from TheHopefullInstitute.com
"I cause others to believe in me because I believe in them
and in myself.
This is my creed, my quest.
To never stop striving for the top.
To always keep moving forward.
To always be the very best I can be.
I am the power. I am the magic. I can not be stopped. I am a winner.
I promise to always be true to myself …
I am responsible for making a positive difference in the world
and to the quality of life in it.
I live in constant and never-ending improvement."
NAPOLEON HILL, American author
Lagniappe 2. Player development...it's not just what you do on the court that makes you a player. Our skills sum everything we do.
Get 30 minutes more sleep per day
Clear your mind (mindfulness) for at least 5 minutes each day
With skilled players, tactics enhance performance. With unskilled players, devoting precious practice time to more tactics has a low return on investment.
Players who can execute spread offense offer more options while emphasizing spacing.
Team sports create "packages" of offense or defense:
Baseball - first and third "steal" situations include myriad choices - throwing through, shortstop cut off, pitcher cut off, fake and throw to third, etc.
Football - bunch formations or five wide formations
Basketball - spread, horns, 1-4 high or low, etc.
Tailor your choices to personnel, experience, and your coaching style. Here are a few.
1 player - Isolation/drive
Cutter clears to open gap and x4 is pressured to help or stay home ("20-80"). You can also down screen both wings and isolate from there.
2 players - back cut, give and go, pick-and-roll (and variations)
3 players - Flexish (Bucks variation), pass and screen away, 3 or layup
Bucks under Jason Kidd
Downscreen with 3 or Slip option
Spread DHO into gap.
Spread Spain PnR (back screen the roller)
Emphasize skill development so players can create and finish. If not, "we can't run what we can't run."
Lagniappe (something extra). Breakdown drill for the top of spread.
Can play 3 on 3 using players from the top.
Lagniappe 2. I encourage readers to read Coach Meurs's commentary, "Do we move the ball in order to run the play? Or do we run the ball in order to move the ball?"
What prompted parents to become so invested in their children's success? Julie Lythcott-Haims explains the transformation, migrating from safety concerns (Adam Walsh), to parent-supervised scheduled play, culture shifts emphasizing self-esteem, and parents taking direct anteambulo functions on college campuses. "In 1990, child development researchers Foster Cline and Jim Fay coined the term "helicopter parent" to refer to a parent who hovers over a child in a way that runs counter to the parent's responsibility to raise a child to independence." Societal shifts promoting child safety, oversight, and success amidst tough competition changed norms (going to the park) to continuous supervision. It wasn't the kids' fault or truly the parents' either. Circumstances created a New Normal...more parental oversight and intervention.
Become a 'proficient' three-point shooter. What would that mean? How might we achieve that? It's part of becoming a consistent overall shooter, challenging yourself in practice.
There must be a context. To impact the game, players need skill sets that get them on the floor. To "get to" play offense, players "have to" play defense.
Stimulus and response... process and outcome... understand what makes us happy ("I'm pleased but not satisfied"), do more of that. Specifics (attention to detail).
Every coach knows 'bad wins' and 'good losses' although they seem paradoxical. Years ago, we lost a close (four points) game to a vastly superior team. Afterwards, several girls noted, "the (Andover) parents said we were the most competitive group they had played this year." They didn't say we were the best, but competed the hardest. That excited me.
Expecting consistency from 12-14 year-old girls is a fool's errand. If Kobe Bryant can shoot 5 for 25 in the NBA, do we think a preteen won't?
Teamwork
Help teammates through communication (starts in practice)
Cut urgently to get separation
Hit the open player (assists are peak happiness)
Teamwork includes coaching ("Are we building a statue or a program?")
Effort
Effort is a skill
Effort shows up in defensive and offensive transition
"Play so hard your coach has to take you out" (Bilas)
Fundamentals
Spacing starts with the three-point line (take screenshots)
Urgent cutting is undervalued; nothing works if you don't.
Wait for the screen.
"Don't back down." Pressure the ball.
Don't neglect basics of stance and positioning
Improvement (how do we know?)
Improvement is measurable (field goal percentage, turnovers)
Reduce points per possession allowed
Reduce turnovers (through better decisions and execution)
Accountability
Consistency of defensive rebounding (block outs, aim for 80%)
Limit fouls - "show your hands", legal guarding position, verticality (don't block down, we need you on the floor)
Contain the ball/stay in front of the ball. 'D' starts with containment
Decision-making
"Fall in love with easy." The easy play is often the best one.
Better shot selection is the quickest path to improvement.
Make your decisions impact winning. "No hero ball."
Toughness and intangibles
Toughness is a skill. #FirsttotheFloor
Set clean and solid screens
Take a charge
Be a Worthy opponent.
Compete. "There is no 50-50 ball."
Preparation leads to better decisions and execution. Know our intent and play that way.
Don't give away points through turnovers, bad shots, and fouls.
CARE (concentration -> anticipation -> reaction -> execution)
Happiness is good basketball.
Lagniappe (something extra). Coach Matt Rotonda practices a five minute overtime (with the clock) with four fouls assigned to everyone. If anyone fouls out, then the team has do decide who to bring on.
Lagniappe 2. Are we listening to our players?
Lagniappe 3. Watch more video. The Truth Machine (Video) exceptional video breakdown. Do players watch enough (any?) video? Invest your time or spend it?
Words resonate. Fat chance, slim chance, and no chance mean the same thing. The intimacy of a kiss translates into basketball analogies and idioms.
Kissing the ring. To "kiss the ring" expresses humility and subservience to authority, traditionally the pope or a king. Some families expect coaches figuratively to kiss the ring for them to attend that school.
The "kiss of death" portends eventual total failure. It may reflect bad decisions, poor performance, or bad luck (e.g. a critical injury).
Kissing the glass informs a soft glance off the backboard leading to a goal.
Kissing the trophy is a tired cliche of teams celebrating championships.
Unless it's you. Boston Garden, 1973.
Kiss and cry area. Some arenas reserve areas for athletes and coaches to celebrate or bemoan their performance, most commonly in figure skating.
Blowing a kiss can be positive or share a sarcastic "kiss off" to opponents or fans.
"Kiss up, kick down" disparages a person by saying they pay homage to power and disparage those below them. Good teammates do not do this.
Fortunately basketball doesn't have ties so there's no, "a tie is like kissing your sister."
"Do you kiss your granny with that mouth?" doesn't mean garlic breath but foul language.
"Kiss and tell" books or stories use intimate knowledge of a person or situation to reveal privileged information (often of an amorous nature).
"Judas kiss" expresses betrayal. In sports, some view athletes as commodities more than individuals, so management may unceremoniously 'dump' them with a Judas Kiss.
Situations change and fortunes reverse. Samuel Jackson cautions us not to burn bridges.
Lagniappe (something extra). Shooting form, footwork, and handwork from Dave Love.
Coaches provide the answers to the test and players don't always know there's a question there. Players have to be able to answer through vision, decision, and execution.
As the offseason ramps up, let's share some Q and A. Be specific.
1. What's the first priority?
"Take care of business." Family and schoolwork are your emphasis. Earn the honor roll. If you have a job, be on time and "show up." Do the "have to" and you'll earn the "get to."
One of my favorite players (now a successful high school volleyball coach) is always pleasant and positive. Her mother told me, "she is every bit as nice and helpful at home as she is outside."
2. What are your basketball essentials? TIA...
Be a good teammate (teamwork)
"Every day is player development day." (improvement)
Make everyone around you better. (team accountability)
3. How will you get on the floor?
Who are you as a player? What's your specific contribution (scorer, facilitator, rebounder, defender)?
Yes, you play both ends and how will you impact winning? Impact winning through positive decisions and execution to find minutes, role, and recognition.
4. How will you score?
Refine 'go to' and 'counter' moves. If I asked what is James Harden's NBA skill, you might answer - drive, score three pointers, gets assists.
5. What's your workout plan?
Become your own coach. Decide what skills to practice, study (e.g. trainer video from experts like Drew Hanlen), and do the repetitions. "It doesn't matter what we run if we can't run it."
6. What is your level of commitment?
Match your work to the dream. Coaches enjoy working with committed players who understand:
Great offense is multiple actions
Great defense is multiple efforts
Say 'yes' to opportunities to improve.
7. Put systems above goals.
Do the unrequired work needed to become your better version. Make working out 'easier' and goofing off harder. Your best self fulfills your fourth agreement of "always do your best." When we show up and do our best, we don't suffer regrets.
8. How will you measure progress?
"Winners are trackers." If it's strength and conditioning, measure changes. If it's shooting, track improvement and seek personal bests. If you're playing Around the World finish in 20 shots not 25 or 30. If you're playing Beat the Pro win 11 to 0 not 11-9.
Use cellphone or other video to assess form. "Form begets function."
9. Seek 'escape velocity' from ordinary.
You'll know it when you see it. The first time you touch the net portends the first time you touch the rim. When you bench press a hundred know that you're on the way to 150.
10.Keep a notebook.
You might see a move in a playoff game. For example, Youtube.com has highlights of NBA playoff games. You can save that using Youtubetrimmer.com. Store it on a gmail spreadsheet. If you plan on coaching some day, add plays to a folder. You don't need high level resources to store your drawings. I see some coaches take a picture with their phone to store diagrams.
Pindown, follow PnR with options.
Most NBA teams run "Pistol action." Here's a simple action.
Lagniappe. Coach Daniel shows how NBA teams run Pistol. It's worth watching and reviewing because 1) it works and 2) it has many hard-to-defend options.
"When I was younger, so much younger than today I never needed anybody's help in any way But now these days are gone, I'm not so self assured Now I find I've changed my mind and opened up the doors"
– “Help!,” Help!, 1965
Remember what Fred Rogers advised, "Look for the helpers." Help has a myriad of basketball implications.
Mentoring
Assistant coaches
Player development
Organization and fundraising
Networking
Defensive help systems
The Future?
Mentoring. Every profession values mentoring. It takes humility to acknowledge we benefit from mentoring. Surgeon Atul Gawande shared the value of having a senior surgeon oversee his technique. When I left the Navy in 1991, I had wise counsel from a number of senior physicians about the transition to private practice.
Basketball is no different. Two eyes and ears are never enough to process the pulse of our team. We also need team leaders to share information below the surface.
And regardless of our age and experience, we can't know everything.
Assistants. I spent more than half my coaching 'career' as an assistant. I focused on player development and tracking, preferring riding shotgun to game management. As a head coach, I relied on assistants for player development assistance and help with input on game management and substitution.
Player development. With the trickle of players leaving the system becoming a stream, I found peace with developing players for private schools or sometimes an exodus to other sports. "Control what you can control." With advancing age, I find I'm incapable of adequate skill demonstration in the EDIR5 (explanation, demonstration, imitation, repetition x 5) rubric.
With the extent of video available on the Internet, share the wealth.
Organization. For high school coaches, organization of activities off the court and fundraising challenges them. Our community has proven exceptionally supportive, especially of the girls program, through the years. Winning helped, as "victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan." I shared this article on fundraising opportunities.
Networking. "Find canvas for others to paint on." Be an anteambulo, clearing the path for players to help them with jobs, recommendations, and exposure to potential opportunities and 'fits' for education. Cracking open a door may help the motivated student-athlete find portals to success.
Defensive help systems. "The help can never be beaten." Help concepts have changed through the decades with the twin threats of superior ball penetration and kick out threes.
Tensions exist, as they should, because individual opponents should dictate closeout policies more than rules. There's less urgency to stop threes by non-shooters.
3) The helpside (here x4 and x2) loads to the ball and creates 3 on 5 offense (Ernie Woods 101). This demands they see the ball, deny cuts to the ball, and be capable of reacting to skip passes with closeouts under control. 4) Choose your poison. Defensive coaches take away what offenses do best...and understand the angles that offensive players prefer. This extends the concept from the recent "Open Court" discussion...the "great" players DRAW 2.
x2A affords the best help against the drive of 1. x2B (one foot in the lane) balances help middle versus skip passes. x2C has worse vision (see both) and can expose back cuts from 2, but eliminates the immediate pass to 2.
How much help to provide off corner threes? "Helping the helper" is another key element for team defense.
With fewer highly skilled post players, there's less doubling and digging on the post.
"I didn't see that coming." If basketball is important to you, "every day is player development day." And if 'the magic is in the work' then unrequired work defines you.
Yes, you have to play as the lonely slog at Camp Driveway won't get you over the hump. But an integrated program of athletic and skill development, film study, and mentoring offers a better chance.
